BillyGee

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Not to burst bubbles, but despite all the rumors Model Y will be first at Austin. They cant keep up with demand for it at Freemont now. They already have the lines perfected and would be easy to replicate to another location.

CT is going to be a all new process to build and lines to develop. Yes they are already working on this but it's not as ready to go as another Model Y line would be.

The Giga presses are already cranking out model Y castings. So far we have seen no evidence the 8000 ton Giga press require for CT castings is even in place yet.
Rationally, I agree with you 100%. By every metric it makes more sense to do the model y first and put the cyber truck line in place alongside it while you work out the kinks.

The only niggling thing in the back of my mind is the Elon musk maraca factor. While it makes way more sense on paper to put out the model why in Austin first, how hilariously blind siding would it be to the industry and all of the analysts if they got the CT out first? Everybody's saying that they won't actually build it, everyone saying it'll never work, all the people saying that it just doesn't make sense would be eating their hats. There's also the reality that they are still making model y elsewhere and while they cannot keep up with demand they are in a hugely beneficial position as a producer.

As much production line sense as it makes to get the y out first, part of me hopes that the CT gets it first just because of how cosmically hilarious it would be.
 

John K

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I bet the decision as to which line starts first is purely on predecessor milestones as progress on each line is done concurrently.

selfishly, I want CT production to start as soon as possible.

Serenity prayer.
“God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, courage to change the things I can, and wisdom to know the difference.”……….. “AND the ability to bribe my way to get CT production to start.”
 

Crissa

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Mini2nut

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We may hear more details (facts, not speculation) regarding the highly anticipated Cybertruck during Monday’s Q2 earnings call. Stay tuned…

7BC03C6B-D338-4A27-A9AF-D90758E053D8.jpeg
 
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DMC-81

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Reading the original article in post 1, it's cool that they are already referring to the Cybertruck as "iconic". That bodes well for future owners IMO, assuming that Tesla can (and will) deliver a quality product.

It's also good that we're are finally nearing the quarter where first deliveries are supposed to start.

Whether it is on time or a quarter late, it's going to be here before one knows it.
 

Mini2nut

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I’m sticking to my Cybertruck production hunch: Q2 of 2022 at the earliest.

Tesla still has a lot of pieces sitting on the table before the puzzle is finished. They have been behind schedule on every vehicle so far minus the Model Y (6-months ahead).

F57BC1C2-68B4-4A51-ACBC-2E8C07866365.jpeg
 
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Diehard

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I’m sticking to my Cybertruck production hunch: Q2 of 2022 at the earliest.

Tesla still has a lot of pieces sitting on the table before the puzzle is finished. They have been behind schedule on every vehicle so far minus the Model Y (6-months ahead).

F57BC1C2-68B4-4A51-ACBC-2E8C07866365.jpeg
CT is taking 3-4 parking spaces. Looking forward to have frontier comments on how it is to live with.

As far as who is first, unless two lines are sharing resources, I don’t see how CT can catch up to Y in Texas. Besides Elon never changed his statement that Y is first (don’t ask me to dig up sources).
 

Mini2nut

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Also, the CT exoskeleton does have some curves if you look very closely. When I viewed it at the Peterson Museum I noticed a very slight curvature in three areas. The windshield, front valance and frunk hood.
 
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JBee

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How confident are we that CT needs a gigapress for front and rear castings?

Technically it could be a stainless steel sub-assembly. Then the timeline could speed up.
 

fritter63

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How confident are we that CT needs a gigapress for front and rear castings?
Confident? We're in "pure speculation based on boredom" mode here!

ETA: I do think Elon confirmed an 8 GT press, or maybe it was the press makers.
 

JBee

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My arguments for castings are:
- ease and speed of assembly
- better handling and load characteristics
- better tolerances
- lighter weight
- and because of all that cheaper

From what I can tell we will see castings so we'll need to wait for the 8k press. :-(
 

Diehard

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Also, the CT exoskeleton does have some curves if you look very closely. When I viewed it at the Peterson Museum I noticed a very slight curvature in three areas. The windshield, front valance and frunk hood.
It would make the windshield a bit more strong. The line on top look straight though. The curvature of the glass must gradually disappear as it gets to the top.
 

Mini2nut

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You could tell the windshield was a prototype. It had significant irregularities in it.

It’s also HUGE! I shudder at the cost of a replacement windshield after a crack develops.
 
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