Outdoors

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The early Model 3 threads are filled with pissy pants folks who are usually are far from factory at launch. It got kind of mean sometimes.

The bottom line is Tesla has never published publicly the process for assigning cars. Maybe a few here and there as being close to factory comments on earnings calls. However never have they said. You wait in line like a kid for concert tickets that is your spot in said line. How people came about connecting numbers to orders is in my thought pure rumor and innuendo.

I think therefore its true, and read on internet. Confirmation. I will tell all I read it that, and then it becomes accepted that my RN is a spot in line. No it is a reservation in a big room. Your name will be called when we are ready.
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Sandman1962

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And keep in mind, as far as I can tell, even ordering the Foundation Series does not assure any your particular spot in line. That is, it is unclear that ordering on the first day the emails came out assures you will actually receive it before more recent orders. I hope it does, but I’ve not read anything from Tesla that this is indeed true. I’m just managing my expectations here.

Has anyone else a better understanding? When VINs are issued, I think things will be more concrete.
 

Baldey

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sad news. will see if there is demand, i guess. at the current optimistic rate of ~80 a day it will take them most of the year to complete. don't think i'll get to place my #5k reservation till after the summer's over :(

There's no way they'll reach their target of 250k units a year in the first year, maybe half that's realistic. Even then, i struggle to imagine them shipping out 400+ trucks out of that place every day.. But if they do and the ramp is a slight curve, maaaybe ill get to spec it out end of spring.. I guess gives me enough time to make up that price difference :(
 

PilotPete

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There's no way they'll reach their target of 250k units a year in the first year, maybe half that's realistic.
I agree they won’t hit 250k/year in 2024. Guess who else agrees? ELON FREAKIN’ MUSK. No one (from Tesla in an official capacity) has ever said they’d hit 250k in the first year. It has never been “their target”. If fact, I believe it was the Q3 call when he said he hoped for 125k/yr by the end of 2024, and the 250k/yr by the end of 2025. Since there is so much “mis-quoting” on the interwebs, I’ll emphasize the important point here. 2024 won’t produce 125k CTs, he is saying by the END of DECEMBER 2024, the RATE should be 125k/yr.

I think the ramp up will follow the 80/20 rule. The first 80% will go fast, and the last 20% won’t.
 

Carlos Thomas

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I don't think they are making 20,000 Foundation Series Cybertrucks. I know that not every Cybertruck reservation holder is on this website, but if you are an "early adopter" or someone who placed a reservation within November 2019, you more than likely on on this board.

The spreadsheet they have running with all the names of people who have received an email to place their order is only 366 people. Lets assume there are another 500 people who have placed the order that is not on this website and did not add their info. You are talking about 800 to 900 orders, which is close to the 1,000 that was said to be the Foundation Series. I think if there were 20,000 slots available, they would have continue sending them out each week until they are all spoken for.

Being that we are not seeing any new emails...they might have their 1,000 in the bag already.
 


anionic1

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I'm not really inclined to believe a rumor from a random person on reddit who talked to a random Tesla rep.

Even if the person from reddit is telling the truth. When do Tesla reps ever know anything? Last I checked, the average person waiting for their Tesla knows more than the average tesla rep.

But I doubt it's 20,000 for a limited edition at launch. Considering I don't think there are 20,000 people that will be dropping an extra 20k for their truck. I think they would sell the 1000, maybe even 5000, but 20000 is a stretch.
You don’t know Tesla fans or maybe you don’t live in a place where every other car is a Tesla. They could invite every reservation holder and probably sell 100,000 FS trims. I get the $100k to $120k is a lot of money but there are a lot of people out there that will pay it. Especially Tesla fans. And the top 3 or 4 vehicles sold in the US are trucks.
 

NoGasTx

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Here we have been mad at scalpers on this forum, turns out Tesla wanted the first crack at it 😉
lol
I have 3 Tesla reservations by couldn’t find my 2019 RN (it was under my son’s email address) so I thought I was getting back on the list this summer. The 3rd I actually made for my nephew.
12/28/19
March 2020
and one a few months ago

IM SO EXCITED!!
I LOVE ELON SO MUCH!!!
LV ELON was available for my license plate but my husband said no lol
 

NoGasTx

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No, just no. (to this rumor) The reddit poster this rumor spread from confirmed in that same thread that by "Tesla rep," they were meaning "phone support rep".


There are multiple much more believable reports on social media of people calling the Tesla Support number with Cybertruck related questions, waiting on hold forever, and in the end the reps were totally clueless and uneducated on anything Cybertruck.

And suddenly there is this wizard-level phone rep that knows all this never-before heard info??

Okay, if someone else can corroborate this phone rep's info, then MAYBE...
Lol ….phone rep wizard
 

cvalue13

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Being that we are not seeing any new emails...they might have their 1,000 in the bag already.
I know for a fact they’ve scrapped the ‘old’ plan for 1,000 Foundation units.

And I also know that after the plan for 1,000, it changed instead to a plan of “however many we can configure as of [X] date in 2024.” In other words, the number to be built would depend on initial ramp as relates to the number of configurations to send out prior to [X] date.

But the point I’m making is *not* that the above-described second plan is what is going to happen ultimately.

Because the point is to inject the reality that the plan can and will change.


Want to know why a Reddit post about 20K trucks gets traction? Not because it’s objectively true, but because at this point people are tuned to the reality that it could be true - insofar as Tesla keeps throwing people for loops at each turn.

But Tesla’s also throwing themselves for loops, insofar as what was the corporate plan yesterday is not assumed to be the corporate plan tomorrow.


For every arguments against there being 20K, there are equally valid arguments for their being even more than 20K - not just on this forum/Reddit, but also inside Tesla corporate.

End of the day, Tesla hasn’t made this a numbered edition. So they’re free to change the target however/whenever they see fit. Really, not announcing a numbered edition to retain flexibility, appears the only core and reliable part of the “plan.”

But to this point:


Being that we are not seeing any new emails...they might have their 1,000 in the bag already.
We are seeing new emails, dribbling and plopping out here and there.

Which is what we might expect to see if Tesla is (at least at present), still targeting not a number of FS units, but instead a target date at which to stop building FS units. In the target date scenario, you send out Config emails only as you get line of sight on how many you reasonably anticipate building over a future period of time Tesla finds acceptable. And you just keep doing that until you near and then reach your target date to stop configuring FS units.

Hypothetically, you might expect the plan to at one point have been to configure only FS units through to end of Q1. In which case the ultimate number of FS that will be built, equals the number of configs they send out before then.

As the Tesla FS invite “expected delivery date” ranges show, Tesla currently anticipates still building FS Cyberbeasts well into the last quarter of 2024. If even just a few more weeks of invites goes out, people hoping for a regular edition Cyberbeast should already expect to possibly not see the first one delivered until into 2025.

The AWD ramp is currently more optimistic, but if Tesla keeps configuring FS AWDs through Q1, it could be a long while before the first standard edition AWD is delivered.
 

VR Driving

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I believe Tesla is sandbagging its ramping capability to sell more Foundation. We might see more than the expected amount produced in 2024. They are just capitalizing on the hype they created, which is good and that means we will see an affordable Cybertruck sooner.
 


WormtownKris

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I know for a fact they’ve scrapped the ‘old’ plan for 1,000 Foundation units.

And I also know that after the plan for 1,000, it changed instead to a plan of “however many we can configure as of [X] date in 2024.” In other words, the number to be built would depend on initial ramp as relates to the number of configurations to send out prior to [X] date.

But the point I’m making is *not* that the above-described second plan is what is going to happen ultimately.

Because the point is to inject the reality that the plan can and will change.

Which is what we might expect to see if Tesla is (at least at present), still targeting not a number of FS units, but instead a target date at which to stop building FS units. In the target date scenario, you send out Config emails only as you get line of sight on how many you reasonably anticipate building over a future period of time Tesla finds acceptable. And you just keep doing that until you near and then reach your target date to stop configuring FS units.

Hypothetically, you might expect the plan to at one point have been to configure only FS units through to end of Q1. In which case the ultimate number of FS that will be built, equals the number of configs they send out before then.
CV,
I fully understand your caveat about this being subject to change.
But in the scenario you present, does Tesla have a specific date for [X] (such as April 1, 2024) at which they would be wrapping up FS AWD builds, and are slotting orders to fill that queue, or are you suggesting that the [X] date itself is dynamic?
 

TruckDaddy

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Watching the "electric viking" channel on YouTube a bit ago, he said Tesla has averaged 10,000 new orders per day since the delivery event. So, may be awhile for those looking for healthy discounts.
 

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I got the invite for the Foundation Series, but I think I'm going to try selling my reservation. HMU if you're interested.
I shouldn’t be too far off On the list and can wait for the official email. I try to avoid risk taking particularly if the company rescinds the transfer.
 

SamRN007

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If this is true, and they were going to increase the foundations from 1,000 to 20,000, the production will not be done by March it would be a dramatic change The first one thousand we're going to be done by March. 20,000 would be done fall 2024.
I asked Tesla sales rep and they had no idea the limits… maybe find out how many Model X foundation series were made… should be similar?
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