Soon, the Cybertruck will be the quickest way for some of us to get a Tesla

[Ogre]

Looking at a Model S earlier and the config tool gave me an estimated delivery date of March 2023. I might get the CT before then. Kind of weird.

A lot of new Teslas are getting delivery dates pretty late in 2022. If the incentives pass, it’s likely calendar year 2022 will be fill up quick.

 

[Qball]

Wait time on Teslas has gone through the roof! Hope new factories will help, people are starting to get just how good Tesla’s are……finally.

 

[PointHope]

Wait time on Teslas has gone through the roof! Hope new factories will help, people are starting to get just how good Tesla’s are……finally.

I just ordered a Model Y for my daughter, January delivery, not cheap.
But given the recent Hertz deal, demand for any Tesla now is going off the chart.

I'm also considering another immediate Model 3 performance (in "retail red") purchase looking at all the Uber/ride share/rental possibilities.

 

[Ogre]

Maybe delay production of CT and Semi in Texas to shift to M3, MY demand, then once orders are delivered switch to intended production. Don’t want to see the fiasco the Model 3 went through on delivery year.

Tesla delivered 100k Model 3s in their first year of production. They produced 40k cars in the first 6 months of production “Hell”.

Tesla has learned a lot about production since then, the Model Y was a fantastic launch with only a few quality issues. Shanghai launch of both the M3 and MY were spot on and most people suggest the quality of those cars is way better than the original Model 3 launch.

I’m not worried about production hell repeat.

 

[Ogre]

It’s Ok? It does happen.

Is that a production issue or a demand issue?

Tesla can’t build factories fast enough to keep up with demand.

 

[Sirfun]

Is that a production issue or a demand issue?

Tesla can’t build factories fast enough to keep up with demand.

Tesla can't GET batteries fast enough to keep up with demand. I was watching Elon on a livestream yesterday and he said they've been talking to battery manufacturers wanting to order more batteries and the suppliers asked "how many do you want"? Musk said, "as many as you can deliver".
Tesla NEEDS batteries! And so do all the other companies. BTW, the issue is just beginning to play out.

 

[Ogre]

Tesla can't GET batteries fast enough to keep up with demand. I was watching Elon on a livestream yesterday and he said they've been talking to battery manufacturers wanting to order more batteries and the suppliers asked "how many do you want"? Musk said, "as many as you can deliver".
Tesla NEEDS batteries! And so do all the other companies. BTW, the issue is just beginning to play out.

Yep

People talk about the chip shortage. But the chip shortage is something you can engineer your way around (as Tesla demonstrated) and secure alternative supplies.

The battery shortage is something which is going to require massive years long planning and logistics efforts. The chip shortage was the warm up match and securing batteries will be the main event.

This is why I think Tesla‘s strength is nearly unassailable. They’ve spent 10 years securing their supply chain. As far as I can tell nobody else has. Super late entrants like Toyota are going to be completely shut out.

Maybe the Toyota CEO is so hard against BEVs because he sees the writing on the wall here.

 

[Blue Steel]

Tesla can't GET batteries fast enough to keep up with demand. I was watching Elon on a livestream yesterday and he said they've been talking to battery manufacturers wanting to order more batteries and the suppliers asked "how many do you want"? Musk said, "as many as you can deliver".
Tesla NEEDS batteries! And so do all the other companies. BTW, the issue is just beginning to play out.

Yep. This is not good news for us folks eagerly anticipating Cybertrucks. Elon basically repeated the message that Tesla is constrained from expanding their model lineup. He said the chip issue is short term, but the battery issue is long term. If I'm (pessimistically) reading the tea leaves, he is bracing people for more delays.

I must admit, for the first time I'm starting to get antsy. I may use my Christmas bonus to drop a reservation on an R1T (gasp!). Not switching teams just yet, but hedging my bets against the Cybertruck getting delayed into oblivion like the Roadster has.

 

[Sirfun]

Yep

People talk about the chip shortage. But the chip shortage is something you can engineer your way around (as Tesla demonstrated) and secure alternative supplies.

The battery shortage is something which is going to require massive years long planning and logistics efforts. The chip shortage was the warm up match and securing batteries will be the main event.

This is why I think Tesla‘s strength is nearly unassailable. They’ve spent 10 years securing their supply chain. As far as I can tell nobody else has. Super late entrants like Toyota are going to be completely shut out.

Maybe the Toyota CEO is so hard against BEVs because he sees the writing on the wall here.

Those folks at Toyota are NOT dummies. They are stalling with a purpose. It wouldn't surprise me one bit, if they stall and stall. Then, like a magician pulling a rabbit out of their hat. Toyota says, Oh look we have solid state batteries!!!

 

[Crissa]

Elon also said that the 4680 is no longer the constraint for the new Y and the Cybertruck, they're just waiting for the chips and factory.

Can't design your way around needing chips to build the factory.

Once the 4680s are coming out, that will reduce pressure of demand on the 2170s, too.

And as Jordan on the Limiting Factor pointed out, the battery packs seem designed to make updating the cars to the new form-factor nearly a drop-in solution for new cells.

-Crissa

 

[Blue Steel]

Elon also said that the 4680 is no longer the constraint for the new Y and the Cybertruck, they're just waiting for the chips and factory.

Can't design your way around needing chips to build the factory.

Once the 4680s are coming out, that will reduce pressure of demand on the 2170s, too.

And as Jordan on the Limiting Factor pointed out, the battery packs seem designed to make updating the cars to the new form-factor nearly a drop-in solution for new cells.

-Crissa

Well, I hope you're right. but this quote from 2 days ago does not sound promising.

"Please don’t read too much into this. As mentioned publicly, Tesla is constrained by chip supply short-term & cell supply long-term.

Not possible to produce additional vehicles in volume until both constraints are addressed."

https://insideevs.com/news/547800/tesla-additional-evs-volume-constraints/

Yes, I am probably reading "too much" into this.

 

[Crissa]

"Please don’t read too much into this. As mentioned publicly, Tesla is constrained by chip supply short-term & cell supply long-term.

Yes, that's what I'm talking about. Long term is way out there. No longer what limits them today. It will limit them in years to come (hence the 4680 and new mining and recycling processes) but chips limit their production this year and next.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

Those folks at Toyota are NOT dummies. They are stalling with a purpose. It wouldn't surprise me one bit, if they stall and stall. Then, like a magician pulling a rabbit out of their hat. Toyota says, Oh look we have solid state batteries!!!

Seems pretty unlikely to me that Toyota would burn so much good-will making a stance against BEVs if they had a solid state battery in their labs ready to roll out.

They have a lot of good engineers, and they have demonstrated solid state, but I’ve heard solid state is exceedingly difficult to scale up to car scale manufacturing.

 

[firsttruck]

....
This is why I think Tesla‘s strength is nearly unassailable. They’ve spent 10 years securing their supply chain. As far as I can tell nobody else has. Super late entrants like Toyota are going to be completely shut out.

Maybe the Toyota CEO is so hard against BEVs because he sees the writing on the wall here.

How can the Toyota CEO take this long to figure out the wall is not a chalkboard with chalk written on it but the wall is made of stone and the writing has been chiseled in by Tesla over period of 15 years. Elon even warned the competitors over 15 years ago by publishing a draft on the the Internet.

GM, Ford, Toyota, VW could all have implemented their own version of the plan and slowly reduced their workforce (a lot by attrition) instead of doing next to nothing and now having the demand for the their workers labor implode in an instant and their economic lives destroyed.
The executives and fail-sons owners will do just fine because they always get golden parachutes.

 

[Ogre]

How can the Toyota CEO take this long to figure out the wall is not a chalkboard with chalk written on it but the wall is made of stone and the writing has been chiseled in by Tesla over period of 15 years. Elon even warned the competitors over 15 years ago by publishing a draft on the the Internet.

GM, Ford, Toyota, VW could all have implemented their own version of the plan and slowly reduced their workforce (a lot by attrition) instead of doing next to nothing and now having the demand for the their workers labor implode in an instant and their economic lives destroyed.
The executives and fail-sons owners will do just fine because they always get golden parachutes.

It’s a tough question.

I think the simple answer is there is currently no path forward for a lot of these guys where they can transition to EVs and remain profitable. To compete with Tesla, they need to plough 10s of billions of dollars into a product line which is not profitable and might not be for 5 years or more. Continuing to release ICE vehicles is the only way they can generate profits right now.

Ditching ICE for these companies is suicide. They need that revenue to ramp up their next generation products.