State allocations???

[Kl777yl]

Last week I was looking at Cybertruck articles and one article showed a graph of which states were allocated a certain number of Cybertrucks. So help me, I cannot find that article again. Of course, don't know if it's "officially Tesla" or not. It might have been speculation.

Does anyone recall seeing that article? It would be interesting to study that graph again.

My CT FS delivery is estimated to be late February here in deepest darkest Iowa. I was surprised because that graph showed essentially zero deliveries for Iowa.

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[jookyone]

I'm not sure about allocations, but I do graph data from the ORDERS LIST at the top of this web page. I've graphed the number of reservations made by forum members of the Foundation Series by state. Looks like only 4 people from this forum reppin'

 

[stevegshi]

I think the reason that we don’t see much allocation in states other than CA/TX Is because Tesla is still delivering orders for the first wave (12/8-12/9), which are mostly CA and TX. Once they are done with the first wave, the allocation for other states will pick up rather quickly, especially for the area where they already have CTs in the showroom/gallery/service center.
As the first quarter winds down, that $20K up charges on every single CT delivered will look increasingly attractive to the top line of the quarterly earnings. I am sure Tesla will try everything they can to push delivery on the FSCT in this typical slow sales quarter.

 

[agordon117]

I think the reason that we don’t see much allocation in states other than CA/TX Is because Tesla is still delivering orders for the first wave (12/8-12/9), which are mostly CA and TX. Once they are done with the first wave, the allocation for other states will pick up rather quickly, especially for the area where they already have CTs in the showroom/gallery/service center.
As the first quarter winds down, that $20K up charges on every single CT delivered will look increasingly attractive to the top line of the quarterly earnings. I am sure Tesla will try everything they can to push delivery on the FSCT in this typical slow sales quarter.

I was quite hoping the way they were talking about how slow the CT ramp will be, that FS CT would be exempt from the end of quarter delivery push that has historically resulted in a lot of missed QC issues. But you make a fair point that it would tip the margin scale even if they can only deliver a few thousand in Q1

 

[Woodrick]

I think the reason that we don’t see much allocation in states other than CA/TX Is because Tesla is still delivering orders for the first wave (12/8-12/9), which are mostly CA and TX. Once they are done with the first wave, the allocation for other states will pick up rather quickly, especially for the area where they already have CTs in the showroom/gallery/service center.
As the first quarter winds down, that $20K up charges on every single CT delivered will look increasingly attractive to the top line of the quarterly earnings. I am sure Tesla will try everything they can to push delivery on the FSCT in this typical slow sales quarter.

That $20k isn't even a blip to a blip on the financials.

 

[CyberNickOH]

Tesla had $25 BILLION in revenue in the 4th quarter. Even if they hit yearly annuals of 50k units in Q1 (12.5k), which they won't, but let's play along. Thats $250m in extra revenue with the $20k FS premium. Thats exactly 1% growth. Best estimate by this arm chair trader is they make 25k units this year and not all will be FS. As said above, not even a blip on a blip to Tesla. The CT is almost a pet project for advertising.

 

[stevegshi]

Tesla had $25 BILLION in revenue in the 4th quarter. Even if they hit yearly annuals of 50k units in Q1 (12.5k), which they won't, but let's play along. Thats $250m in extra revenue with the $20k FS premium. Thats exactly 1% growth. Best estimate by this arm chair trader is they make 25k units this year and not all will be FS. As said above, not even a blip on a blip to Tesla. The CT is almost a pet project for advertising.

a 'bearish' arm chair trader to be precise.

You missed the keynotes from the 4th quarter earnings call: at the current order conversion rate they are expecting to sell out all 2024 production. That order conversion rate is referring to FS CT orders.

'... they make 25k units this year and not all will be FS' per your logic, the order conversion rate on the FS CTs would be less than 2% and leave Tesla no choice but start selling non-FS CTs. If Tesla wants a pet project for advertising, they would do it with the Roadster.

 

[CyberNickOH]

a 'bearish' arm chair trader to be precise.

You missed the keynotes from the 4th quarter earnings call: at the current order conversion rate they are expecting to sell out all 2024 production. That order conversion rate is referring to FS CT orders.

'... they make 25k units this year and not all will be FS' per your logic, the order conversion rate on the FS CTs would be less than 2% and leave Tesla no choice but start selling non-FS CTs. If Tesla wants a pet project for advertising, they would do it with the Roadster.

My comments being considered bearish or not, I have been long on TSLA, on and off unfortunately, since I first invested $25k in 2012. But my point was more about the FS premium is about something else, not the money. I think its either supply or regulatory.

 

[Kl777yl]

I'm not sure about allocations, but I do graph data from the ORDERS LIST at the top of this web page. I've graphed the number of reservations made by forum members of the Foundation Series by state. Looks like only 4 people from this forum reppin'

This is an even better chart! Thanks!!!!!

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