Tesla announces 4680 production is up to 1m cells per week (enough for 600 Cybertrucks)

[Ogre]

This should be enough for 600 - 700 dual motor Cybertrucks or perhaps 350-450 tri motor trucks.



We’re getting there. Just need another order of magnitude faster production. Should be enough capacity for 1000 trucks a week by the time production starts. I think they will start building a backlog (or may already be building a backlog) of battery packs before start of production.

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[Diehard]

This should be enough for 600 - 700 dual motor Cybertrucks or perhaps 350-450 tri motor trucks.



We’re getting there. Just need another order of magnitude faster production. Should be enough capacity for 1000 trucks a week by the time production starts. I think they will start building a backlog (or may already be building a backlog) of battery packs before start of production.

Would Smi and Y share those 4680s?

 

[Ogre]

Would Smi and Y share those 4680s?

Semi uses 2170s for the moment. I believe eventually it will use 4680s, but for the moment anyhow, they do not.

Model Y seems to be 2170 only at the moment. They have produced 4680 Model Ys and are certain to produce more, but at the moment I don’t think they are.

My feeling is once Cybertruck production starts it will be the primary consumer of 4680 cells until they have surplus capacity.

 

[Ogre]

I’ve been informed that the reason they have 2 photos here is because the right-hand image is from Giga Texas which makes me think they are indeed producing some 4680 cells out of Texas.

That means all of the essential components to mass produce Cybertrucks in motion. Either being built or actually producing product and ramping up. The only giant question mark is how TF they are going to get the stainless folded. But looking at the progress elsewhere I suspect that is in progress too (we’ve seen they ordered some brakes for folding steel).

 

[Ogre]

One more addendum.

Tesla has doubled their 4680 production every quarter to this point.

At that rate,

• 2m/ week end of Q1
• 4m/ week end of Q2
• 8m/ week end of Q3… that’s enough for 2,000 Cybertrucks per week during 3rd quarter of 2023.
• Enough for 4,000 Cybertrucks per week coming into Q4. Happy coincidence.

This rate of expansion should continue until well after they’ve provided enough capacity for Cybertruck growth. We have 2 overlapping ramps going on: Fremont and Austin. Plus Fremont just added 4x additional floor space which should allow them to continue expansion there.

No word on new chemistries yet.

 

[Crissa]

Semi uses 2170s for the moment. I believe eventually it will use 4680s, but for the moment anyhow, they do not.

Model Y seems to be 2170 only at the moment. They have produced 4680 Model Ys and are certain to produce more, but at the moment I don’t think they are.

My feeling is once Cybertruck production starts it will be the primary consumer of 4680 cells until they have surplus capacity.

And as we talked about last week, they have a big pile of what look like Model Y packs stacked upstairs in Giga Texas.

-Crissa

 

[samroy92]

1k+ cars makes sense for 4680 Model Y since current design is 828 cells per pack, 868k cells per week == 1k+ cars per week.

Cybertruck should use around 1520 cells per pack which is around 570 Cybertrucks per week!

 

[Ogre]

Alex predicted this in September. Curve only getting steeper

 

[Ogre]

I heard a very good explanation for the stockpile of Model Y packs in Texas.

They batch them up then change over the assembly line and push through all of the 4680 packs at once. Then switch back to 2170 production. Also, kind of wonder if there is some weird tie in with the IRA manufacturing incentives. Is it possible they can collect the manufacturing credits ($45/ kWh for packs manufactured in the US) even though they were manufactured in 2022? That would make a huge difference per pack.

 

[Crissa]

We need a question mark or good question reaction emoji.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

We need a question mark or good question reaction emoji.

-Crissa

Well I found out the packs will not qualify for the Advanced Materials Production credits if they were manufactured in 2022. Apparently it’s only for product manufactured in that year.

So I struck that question. But otherwise still lots of questions. I think the theory that they are batching packs for bigger production runs makes the most sense at the moment.

Another thought it these are different enough from the older ones they will be sold as a different product. Possibly Model Y LR or Model Y SR.

 

[Ogre]

At the risk of blowing this thread up with my own posts (too late). I found a really interesting thread which sums up a lot of my own feels about 4680. (And to a larger extent Cybertruck).

Yes it’s late. That doesn’t change that it is awesome.

 

[Cyberman]

One more addendum.

Tesla has doubled their 4680 production every quarter to this point.

At that rate,

• 2m/ week end of Q1
• 4m/ week end of Q2
• 8m/ week end of Q3… that’s enough for 2,000 Cybertrucks per week during 3rd quarter of 2023.
• Enough for 4,000 Cybertrucks per week coming into Q4. Happy coincidence.

This rate of expansion should continue until well after they’ve provided enough capacity for Cybertruck growth. We have 2 overlapping ramps going on: Fremont and Austin. Plus Fremont just added 4x additional floor space which should allow them to continue expansion there.

No word on new chemistries yet.

So then #216,000 comes in at April of 2024. That's not going to work for me. We have to do better than that, team. Let's work on shaving those numbers to September 2023. I just can't possibly wait longer than that. Let's get on it. Please.

 

[Cyberman]

At the risk of blowing this thread up with my own posts (too late). I found a really interesting thread which sums up a lot of my own feels about 4680. (And to a larger extent Cybertruck).

Yes it’s late. That doesn’t change that it is awesome.

Yes, EV tech is still in its infancy. I mean that seriously, even though EV's have been around since around 1828.

 

[Ogre]

Yes, EV tech is still in its infancy. I mean that seriously, even though EV's have been around since around 1828.

Can’t hardly blame Tesla for lack of progress before they were created.

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