jerhenderson

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Ogre

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I guessed 10k trucks around the first of the year. Got a lot of pushback, but still find much more than that unlikely. Model Y had weeks of 500 trucks/ week production before things really start to take off.

But… progress on the GP is impressive, maybe production starts in May. Crossing my fingers.
 

Ogre

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I think they'll deliver more. how many MY did Berlin deliver after 6 months?
Texas took until September to get their first 10k Model Ys out the door. That’s just shy of 9 months.

Remember early days volume was pretty low. Of course 2022 had lots of supply chain issues. Maybe with a smoother supply chain Cybertruck flies off the line.
 


cvalue13

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Fingers crossed, Tesla outperforms Ford. Ford started deliveries in May 2022, and ended 2022 with 13,258 deliveries. So, I'm going with over 10,000
for the record, Ford delivered a total of 15,617 Lightnings in 2022

the 13K number you cited (and that google responds with) is from late November data of “2022 to date”

FWIW, Ford delivered >6,000 of those in the month of Nov

EDIT TO ADD: thinking on this, the first rental delivery was on essentially the last day of May, and 6 months later (November) Ford had delivered over 13,000 units. They delivered ~6,000 in the month of November alone. If we (back of napkin) assume this increase in deliveries was production line related (as opposed eg to a previous bottleneck in delivery processes), that roughly equate to a line rate of 72,000/yr - which number makes me think the 6k/mo was more of a post-bottleneck aberration. Ford has aspired to a 40K/yr line rate by end of 2023, which seems reasonable/possible.

If folks are suggesting the first CT deliveries happen mid-year, as with Ford, seems we should expect at least as many out of Tesla by year end (here come the hordes shouting “twice as many!” “10 times!” “Infinite!”).
 
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cvalue13

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Backing into the “bull investor” estimate of 10K units in 2023, I wonder what are the prior missed milestones that in the future would cause us to doubt?

I mean, it’s possible that even if we haven’t seen a single retail CT delivery by Nov. 1st, Tesla could nonetheless be staged to still deploy 10K units before year end?

But if by Nov. 1st we’ve not seen several months worth of test castings, test vehicles, etc., what are the chances that Tesla is in deep secrets mode rather than behind schedule?
 

prl99

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Austin is producing a bunch of Model Ys which means their infrastructure is working very well. Once the gigapress is reassembled the rest of the assembly line can be built and tested. No painting so less building to do. Material handling and storage facilities are already built, simply waiting to be used. I believe once Tesla produces its first perfect castings, everything will go like crazy. Of course, I presume the first castings will be used for crash tests with any adjustments made before test production starts but if they get the first test castings out by May/June, I could see 1000 CTs per week by September, giving them 4 months of production to easily hit 10K .
 

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My early projection from last year was 12k-15k for 2023 and that's if everything goes well. Generally it takes them 3 months to double weekly production. My prediction is based on their making consumer trucks starting July 1. May - June trucks are for crash/safety testing, validation.
 


Ogre

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My early projection from last year was 12k-15k for 2023 and that's if everything goes well. Generally it takes them 3 months to double weekly production. My prediction is based on their making consumer trucks starting July 1. May - June trucks are for crash/safety testing, validation.
It all depends on when production starts. May production start? We could hit 25k or more… I think that’s quite unlikely but still possible.

Each additional week of production adds more trucks than the week prior so even a couple extra weeks could make a difference of 3,000 trucks in the year.
 

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Screenshot from 2023-01-19 13-11-58.png


Is my prediction too optimistic?
Right now I’m thinking you are too optimistic.

But we’ll see when production starts. Maybe if they start in May you have a chance. Your reservation is in the ~15k range I think?
 

CyberGus

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Right now I’m thinking you are too optimistic.

But we’ll see when production starts. Maybe if they start in May you have a chance. Your reservation is in the ~15k range I think?
More like 30K, BUT I'm hoping they offer the earliest builds to the locals first.
🤞
 

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