Tesla popup factories to speed Cybertruck to market

rr6013

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Rather than spend years building new Gigafactory for millions of Cybertrucks why not pop-up smaller plants? Why wouldn’t Tesla convert an existing plant to Cybertruck? Model Y clearly owns GigaAUSTIN production originally reserved for Cybertruck. Even were GigaAUSTIN to ramp Cybertruck, production is years out for existing reservation holders and new buyers? New buyers take a number.

Standalone Cybertruck factory in renovated plants make a fast argument for pop-up Cybertruck manufacturing. A rich man explained that its easy to get 20-30% but thereafter diminishing returns chasing 40-50%. But you can accumulate small 5-10% shares that add up to 50-60% of a market cheaper. That’s where a pop-up strategy fits. Tesla has GIGA factories that will scale to 20% marketshare. Now its time Tesla have a small ball(Warriors fan) strategy.

Tesla has factories in CA,NV,TX, NY, Canada, Germany, Hong Kong or China. It has in place the administrative infrastructure to support satellite plant operation. Cybertruck S.S. metallurgy eliminated the costliest investment in paint. IDRA casting reduced plant footprint 1/10th size with 1/6th investment. Standalone Cybertruck factory in renovated plants make a fast argument for pop-up Cybertruck manufacturing. Tesla can make small plants grow bigga where necessary

I’d hazard Cybertruck pop-ups could shave years off Tesla timeline-to-market .vs. building greenfield new Tesla plants as in TX, .de and Shanghai. Cybertruck would fit plants converted into Cybertruck pop-up factories. High on that list must be MX. There is Chevrolet’s Silao, Guanajuato, Mexico 26M sq ft truck assembly plant if it comes available, GM production ended there 2013. Tesla could acquire that or a neighboring facility. Tesla has 127 Mexican suppliers in its Supply Chain.

I’ve owned two MX built cars(VW,Tahoe). Mexico make very good automobiles. That skilled talent base is in-place awaiting the opportunity to build again. As are idle plants worldwide. Cybertruck more than any other vehicle is the perfect pop-up weapon to slash Tesla time-to-market performance.

Time to change up the game? Deliver Cybertrucks faster? Build new orders? What about that CyberVan? Cyberquad?
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It's a lot easier in terms of logistics and scaling up to operate one giant factory and disburse finished products than it is to move the parts to multiple locations to assemble elsewhere.

Economy of scale, baby!
 

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Rather than spend years building new Gigafactory for millions of Cybertrucks why not pop-up smaller plants? Why wouldn’t Tesla convert an existing plant to Cybertruck? Model Y clearly owns GigaAUSTIN production originally reserved for Cybertruck. Even were GigaAUSTIN to ramp Cybertruck, production is years out for existing reservation holders and new buyers? New buyers take a number.
First… “Tera Texas” not Giga Texas. A Terawatt is 1000x a Gigawatt which sort of explains the goal of Tera Texas. Giga Shanghai is the worlds biggest car factory. Tera Texas is more than 3x the size of Shanghai. It is designed to spew out millions of vehicles per year.

Model Y production is about 40% of the Tera Texas footprint. Tesla has made it clear they want it to be the single most popular car in the world. The Model Y was always going to be the first vehicle out of Texas, I’m not sure where you’ve heard otherwise.

Standalone Cybertruck factory in renovated plants make a fast argument for pop-up Cybertruck manufacturing. A rich man explained that its easy to get 20-30% but thereafter diminishing returns chasing 40-50%. But you can accumulate small 5-10% shares that add up to 50-60% of a market cheaper. That’s where a pop-up strategy fits. Tesla has GIGA factories that will scale to 20% marketshare. Now its time Tesla have a small ball(Warriors fan) strategy.
Is the plan to have 2 Gigapresses at each of these locations or do they ship the assemblies from one central place?

Likewise seats, Tesla makes their own seats, are they building 5 seat factories or making seats in 1 factory and shipping them?

Also, batteries. Right now Tesla is planning a battery factory in Austin, so 5 battery factories or do they ship batteries from Austin to each mini-factory?

… likewise heavy stainless folding equipment, stamping equipment, etc etc etc.


EDIT: Oops?? Struck out some wrong stuff.
 
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Tesla does use pop-up assembly lines, they've done that at Fremont.

But how would that help with Cybertruck, which doesn't have any lines yet?

You need trained people, the equipment, and then room to play around with the design of the assembly areas to optimize it.

Until they have that - which they have in Fremont and Austin - there's nothing to duplicate.

Old factories don't have the infrastructure to support new assembly systems.

-Crissa
 

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Rather than spend years building new Gigafactory for millions of Cybertrucks why not pop-up smaller plants? Why wouldn’t Tesla convert an existing plant to Cybertruck? Model Y clearly owns GigaAUSTIN production originally reserved for Cybertruck. Even were GigaAUSTIN to ramp Cybertruck, production is years out for existing reservation holders and new buyers? New buyers take a number.

Standalone Cybertruck factory in renovated plants make a fast argument for pop-up Cybertruck manufacturing. A rich man explained that its easy to get 20-30% but thereafter diminishing returns chasing 40-50%. But you can accumulate small 5-10% shares that add up to 50-60% of a market cheaper. That’s where a pop-up strategy fits. Tesla has GIGA factories that will scale to 20% marketshare. Now its time Tesla have a small ball(Warriors fan) strategy.

Tesla has factories in CA,NV,TX, NY, Canada, Germany, Hong Kong or China. It has in place the administrative infrastructure to support satellite plant operation. Cybertruck S.S. metallurgy eliminated the costliest investment in paint. IDRA casting reduced plant footprint 1/10th size with 1/6th investment. Standalone Cybertruck factory in renovated plants make a fast argument for pop-up Cybertruck manufacturing. Tesla can make small plants grow bigga where necessary

I’d hazard Cybertruck pop-ups could shave years off Tesla timeline-to-market .vs. building greenfield new Tesla plants as in TX, .de and Shanghai. Cybertruck would fit plants converted into Cybertruck pop-up factories. High on that list must be MX. There is Chevrolet’s Silao, Guanajuato, Mexico 26M sq ft truck assembly plant if it comes available, GM production ended there 2013. Tesla could acquire that or a neighboring facility. Tesla has 127 Mexican suppliers in its Supply Chain.

I’ve owned two MX built cars(VW,Tahoe). Mexico make very good automobiles. That skilled talent base is in-place awaiting the opportunity to build again. As are idle plants worldwide. Cybertruck more than any other vehicle is the perfect pop-up weapon to slash Tesla time-to-market performance.

Time to change up the game? Deliver Cybertrucks faster? Build new orders? What about that CyberVan? Cyberquad?
Tesla is battery constrained.. your argument makes more sense for battery production facilities.
 

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From Wikipedia

" In China, backyard furnaces (土法炼钢) were small blast furnaces used by the people of China during the Great Leap Forward (1958–62).[1][2] These were constructed in the fields and backyards of communes to further the Great Leap Forward's aims of making China the top steel producer in the world. However, most furnaces were only capable of producing pig iron. "
 
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rr6013

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It's a lot easier in terms of logistics and scaling up to operate one giant factory and disburse finished products than it is to move the parts to multiple locations to assemble elsewhere.

Economy of scale, baby!
I get that.

Cybertruck isn’t mass, at scale nor is it sharing any inventory with Tesla other models. Every glass, body panel, interior trim, and driveline is unique to Cybertruck. Only thing it shares are the steering yoke and Plaid motors found in the Model S.

There isn’t any scale to economize. So the idea of shipping parts to a common location where all Tesla vehicles can then be assembled is a division of labor.
 
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rr6013

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First… “Tera Texas” not Giga Texas. A Terawatt is 1000x a Gigawatt which sort of explains the goal of Tera Texas. Giga Shanghai is the worlds biggest car factory. Tera Texas is more than 3x the size of Shanghai. It is designed to spew out millions of vehicles per year.

Model Y production is about 40% of the Tera Texas footprint. Tesla has made it clear they want it to be the single most popular car in the world. The Model Y was always going to be the first vehicle out of Texas, I’m not sure where you’ve heard otherwise.
6D92C141-4581-4C16-BDDB-3160EADB9349.png



Is the plan to have 2 Gigapresses at each of these locations or do they ship the assemblies from one central place?

Likewise seats, Tesla makes their own seats, are they building 5 seat factories or making seats in 1 factory and shipping them?

Also, batteries. Right now Tesla is planning a battery factory in Austin, so 5 battery factories or do they ship batteries from Austin to each mini-factory?

… likewise heavy stainless folding equipment, stamping equipment, etc etc etc.


EDIT: Oops?? Struck out some wrong stuff.
I stand corrected. Memory…

Thanks on the data points. I hadn’t heard that MY info anywhere. Cool fact 40% is larger than expected.

WRT: Giga Press(GP) They can ship castings around until production from IDRA catches up. I think if memory serves IDRA stated it can build couple 10k GP per year.

WRT: Interior – Cybertrucks interior are integral to the plant. Pieces, fabrics and inventory can be pre-cut, component out-sourced then assembled at each plant.

WRT: Battery cells - Packs can be produced and assembled at minifactory from battery cells shipped to each location. Why not? 4680 is a 100 calorie beverage container. Coors ships from Golden CO so can Tesla ship from Austin TX.

WRT: S.S. - Rolls of S.S. come into minifactories just as GigaAUSTIN on a flatbed two to a truckload. Machines are onsite and its a S.S. origami party!

Now I am worried after MY takes 40% footprint. Can Cybertruck get it done in 26M sq ft of manufacturing space?
 
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rr6013

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Tesla does use pop-up assembly lines, they've done that at Fremont.

But how would that help with Cybertruck, which doesn't have any lines yet?

You need trained people, the equipment, and then room to play around with the design of the assembly areas to optimize it.

Until they have that - which they have in Fremont and Austin - there's nothing to duplicate.

Old factories don't have the infrastructure to support new assembly systems.

-Crissa
Agreed Fremont is the flywheel. The Fremont tents queued my thinking about CT footprint requirements. I expect that lines, order process and assembly division of labor breakouts were done in Fremont.

Training, installation, configuration, management, flow and staging queues are not dependent on GigaAUSTIN. Castings yes. @Ogre has a point about footprint that I don’t know.

Can CT be assembled in Silao, Guanajuato, Mexico 26M sq ft truck assembly plant? That I don’t know the answer.

WRT: Infrstructure at old plants - Electrons are electrons. I’d expect Chevrolet wasted more electricity building Chevy pickups than Tesla will need building Cybertruck. Of course, you are right. No IDRA footings exist for casting. That would be renovation.
 
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rr6013

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From Wikipedia

" In China, backyard furnaces (土法炼钢) were small blast furnaces used by the people of China during the Great Leap Forward (1958–62).[1][2] These were constructed in the fields and backyards of communes to further the Great Leap Forward's aims of making China the top steel producer in the world. However, most furnaces were only capable of producing pig iron. "
OK…you get one guess. Where did all the United States scrap steel go in the 1980’s overseas? LOL

CHINA. I just didn’t know backyard furnaces could smelter scrap iron. Provo UT steel was so overbuilt! LOL
 

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I stand corrected. Memory…

Thanks on the data points. I hadn’t heard that MY info anywhere. Cool fact 40% is larger than expected.

WRT: Giga Press(GP) They can ship castings around until production from IDRA catches up. I think if memory serves IDRA stated it can build couple 10k GP per year.

WRT: Interior – Cybertrucks interior are integral to the plant. Pieces, fabrics and inventory can be pre-cut, component out-sourced then assembled at each plant.

WRT: Battery cells - Packs can be produced and assembled at minifactory from battery cells shipped to each location. Why not? 4680 is a 100 calorie beverage container. Coors ships from Golden CO so can Tesla ship from Austin TX.

WRT: S.S. - Rolls of S.S. come into minifactories just as GigaAUSTIN on a flatbed two to a truckload. Machines are onsite and its a S.S. origami party!

Now I am worried after MY takes 40% footprint. Can Cybertruck get it done in 26M sq ft of manufacturing space?
Shipping - really trucking - all that would be astronomically expensive even if there weren’t a transportation capacity constraint at the moment. While batteries might be the same size as a 100 calorie soda, they weigh a fuck ton more. You’re going to weigh out all these trucks which are going to be almost empty.
 

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Cybertruck isn’t mass, at scale nor is it sharing any inventory with Tesla other models.
Tesla has a million pre-orders and is likely to have sustained demand for 200,000+ per year. I certainly consider that high scale truck production. It is certainly enough models where building a dedicated high speed assembly line makes sense.

It is also absolutely going to share components with other Teslas. Lots of drive train components, battery controllers HVAC, seat controllers, consoles, most of the electronics in fact.

The 40% number regarding the Model Y is an educated guess. I’m pretty sure it’s the biggest part of the 3, but not entirely certain.
 
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rr6013

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Shipping - really trucking - all that would be astronomically expensive even if there weren’t a transportation capacity constraint at the moment. While batteries might be the same size as a 100 calorie soda, they weigh a fuck ton more. You’re going to weigh out all these trucks which are going to be almost empty.
Deer in headlights!

You got a great point on tonnage. Battery must be a solved problem shipping Li to AustinTX, Berlin and Shanghai. That must be a logistical coup cost wise to solve for any new location. Rail helps but adds logistics and time. So Tesla would want to standup a new battery factory wherever it pops up another factory. Tesla has assembled such a high barrier to entry into BEV for competitors; even for itself. Horse Ranch was detrimental for it to expand factory capacity, models and new business ventures.

S.S. coils are solved for AustinTX with the source of supply down the road. Once coils are loaded its a function of distance to destination to deliver. Another required coup anywhere other than AustinTX.

My head has been wrapped around what Tesla accomplished in GM’s old Fremont factory, its tented assembly line tenacity and a damn the Chicken Littles full speed ahead progress building Berlin.

Austin is Teslatown, Tesla, the next GM, is Detroiting Austin. The day Teslas roll out of GigaAUSTIN Elon has re-centered BEV automotive universe in Texas and Elon has supplanted Oil Men as Texas economy.

That’s a coup!
 
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rr6013

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Tesla has a million pre-orders and is likely to have sustained demand for 200,000+ per year. I certainly consider that high scale truck production. It is certainly enough models where building a dedicated high speed assembly line makes sense.

It is also absolutely going to share components with other Teslas. Lots of drive train components, battery controllers HVAC, seat controllers, consoles, most of the electronics in fact.

The 40% number regarding the Model Y is an educated guess. I’m pretty sure it’s the biggest part of the 3, but not entirely certain.
Right? 200,000 unit production is scale except for Cybertruck. Tesla has turned manufacturing trucks into assembly.

That changes what is measured. Now Tesla has three main components(rolling platform, exoskeleton, fit and trim) to assemble. All components are able to be pre-manufactured. That’s ten hours assembly time out-the-door! VW(worlds best) is stuck manufacturing 30 hrs/vehicle. Do the maths and Cybertruck could pop out 3X number of units.

That’s assembly! Scale assembly lines. That’s scaling SpaceX-style.

Tesla does it with a few more innovations like IDRA, the prospects for a little DeuceCoup locks in a sub-$25k USD BEV. Beyond, that’s what has China throwing everything it can come up with at BEV before Tesla beats them to it.
 
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