Tesla popup factories to speed Cybertruck to market

HaulingAss

Well-known member
First Name
Mike
Joined
Oct 3, 2020
Messages
853
Reaction score
1,467
Location
Washington State
Vehicles
2010 Ford F-150, 2018 Tesla Model 3 Performance
Country flag
Rather than spend years building new Gigafactory for millions of Cybertrucks why not pop-up smaller plants? Why wouldn’t Tesla convert an existing plant to Cybertruck? Model Y clearly owns GigaAUSTIN production originally reserved for Cybertruck. Even were GigaAUSTIN to ramp Cybertruck, production is years out for existing reservation holders and new buyers? New buyers take a number.

Standalone Cybertruck factory in renovated plants make a fast argument for pop-up Cybertruck manufacturing. A rich man explained that its easy to get 20-30% but thereafter diminishing returns chasing 40-50%. But you can accumulate small 5-10% shares that add up to 50-60% of a market cheaper. That’s where a pop-up strategy fits. Tesla has GIGA factories that will scale to 20% marketshare. Now its time Tesla have a small ball(Warriors fan) strategy.

Tesla has factories in CA,NV,TX, NY, Canada, Germany, Hong Kong or China. It has in place the administrative infrastructure to support satellite plant operation. Cybertruck S.S. metallurgy eliminated the costliest investment in paint. IDRA casting reduced plant footprint 1/10th size with 1/6th investment. Standalone Cybertruck factory in renovated plants make a fast argument for pop-up Cybertruck manufacturing. Tesla can make small plants grow bigga where necessary

I’d hazard Cybertruck pop-ups could shave years off Tesla timeline-to-market .vs. building greenfield new Tesla plants as in TX, .de and Shanghai. Cybertruck would fit plants converted into Cybertruck pop-up factories. High on that list must be MX. There is Chevrolet’s Silao, Guanajuato, Mexico 26M sq ft truck assembly plant if it comes available, GM production ended there 2013. Tesla could acquire that or a neighboring facility. Tesla has 127 Mexican suppliers in its Supply Chain.

I’ve owned two MX built cars(VW,Tahoe). Mexico make very good automobiles. That skilled talent base is in-place awaiting the opportunity to build again. As are idle plants worldwide. Cybertruck more than any other vehicle is the perfect pop-up weapon to slash Tesla time-to-market performance.

Time to change up the game? Deliver Cybertrucks faster? Build new orders? What about that CyberVan? Cyberquad?
You don't like the idea that Tesla is bringing back good-paying manufacturing jobs to the United States? In the 1970's and 80's, a lot of good manufacturing jobs were exported to China and that began the breakdown of many of the benefits American manufacturing brought to the United States economy. To see the pendulum start to swing in the other direction is heartening, to say the least. I would not want to be a part of making it go back in the other direction again.

Building Cybertrucks is a large scale industrial process which is how Tesla was able to get the price so low and offer the buyer so much value. They even attracted a huge, multi-billion dollar steel mill to locate between GigaAustin and the SpaceX facility to the south. Once they perfect the manufacturing process they will replicate lines right there in Austin, near the steel foundry, and will surprise and stun with how many trucks that plant will be able to churn out at high speed. You will need to pick your jaw up off the floor!
Advertisement

 
Last edited:
OP
OP
rr6013

rr6013

Well-known member
First Name
Rex
Joined
Apr 22, 2020
Messages
888
Reaction score
837
Location
Piedras Gordas Panama
Website
shorttakes.substack.com
Vehicles
1997 Tahoe 2 door 4x4
Occupation
Retired software developer and heavy commercial design builder
Country flag
You don't like the idea that Tesla is bringing back good-paying manufacturing jobs to the United States? In the 1970's and 80's, a lot of good manufacturing jobs were exported to China and that began the breakdown of many of the benefits American manufacturing brought to the United States economy. To see the pendulum start to swing in the other direction is heartening, to say the least. I would not want to be a part of making it go back in the other direction again.

Building Cybertrucks is a large scale industrial process which is how Tesla was able to get the price so low and offer the buyer so much value. They even attracted a huge, multi-billion dollar steel mill to locate between GigaAustin and the SpaceX facility to the south. Once they perfect the manufacturing process they will replicate lines right there in Austin, near the steel foundary, and will surprise and stun with how many trucks that plant will be able to churn out at high speed. You will need to pick your jaw up off the floor!
The 1 million pre-orders is unprecedented in history. How can Tesla scale its assembly?
GigaAUSTIN priority is MY. Cybertruck was July 2021 delivery, now to late 2022 and/or full production 2023.

GigaAUSTIN final occupancy no sooner than July 2022 means that even if Tesla jumpstarted CT like MY it couldn’t have the Giga project completed to accommodate vehicles at scale. Hence the question “How does Tesla overcome that 1million backlog?”

First principle…finding the answer to that problem(good to have) is the gift horse for all Teslas. People aren’t buying EV’s. People are buying Teslas. Even my daughter who is holds TSLA wants to wait until she can afford to buy a Tesla. There is a tsunami of demand for Teslas already out there - its coming hard when it floods.

China is fully capable of flooding the US market with NEV cars. A new GigaFactory is 3 years away i.e. 2026. The feedback on offsite assembly of Cybertrucks was instructive. Turns out as you pointed out that Giga scale is an insurmountable obstacle to Tesla competitors and Tesla itself.

Tesla has to scale assembly lines. That constraint of vertical integration is a limiting factor. Without the data, IDK. Which are CT chokepoints? At what stage does assembly 2X? Halving deliver times? What point does a solution GigaSCALE(Tx,Berlin,Shanghai)?

The takeaway from this discussion for me is that any solution must be a GigaAUSTIN answer. That, that answer, will be picked up by GigaBerlin and GigaShanghai. More multi-billion plants are inbound to Tesla Gigafactories. Some of Tesla vertical integration must subsidiary or standalone plant in Austin or component-ize Tesla for Giga-assembly off-site.

That’s Horse Ranch LLC and expect more Project Bobcat-style developments on that 600+ ac. Names are being taken for TX racehorses for the new projects that will scale assembly lines.
 
OP
OP
rr6013

rr6013

Well-known member
First Name
Rex
Joined
Apr 22, 2020
Messages
888
Reaction score
837
Location
Piedras Gordas Panama
Website
shorttakes.substack.com
Vehicles
1997 Tahoe 2 door 4x4
Occupation
Retired software developer and heavy commercial design builder
Country flag
I would buy if it makes it to 60 at all. Top speed 19-37 mph.
What exactly is the design brief for the Tesla after Model 2? Model 2 is an exercise in strictly hitting a price target $25k USD.

Model 1? Is it too early to know BEV+V2G synergy on a new Tesla price in the future?
 

tidmutt

Well-known member
First Name
Daniel
Joined
Feb 25, 2020
Messages
271
Reaction score
383
Location
Somewhere hot and humid
Vehicles
Golf R, Tesla Model 3
Occupation
Software Architect
Country flag
Tesla needs to do something, Elon took OUR $103 billion in capital to hold our orders. Get it done?! Deliver it, again I don’t need a $140,000 Plaid CT, give me the $39,000 work truck that was shown us 2 years ago?!

Tesla rivals are starting to chip away at the market. Rivian, Ford. Etc. The Hummer EV gets released starting next month, GM rushed production?!


GM’s Hummer EV has 329-mile range, ‘Edition 1’ deliveries start in December
Jameson Dow
- Nov. 23rd 2021 5:20 pm PT


Hummer EV deliveries are imminent, slated to begin next month as confirmed today by GMC brand chief Duncan Aldred. While the truck will not be EPA rated, GM says it will have an all-electric range of 329 miles.
I'll believe GM's BS when I see it. If they start deliveries it will be low volume... I don't think anyone is going to have actual real scale production of electric trucks before Tesla does. Real scale being more than 10-50K per year.

So not chipping away at the market. The market for trucks is enormous in the US. If Tesla has a cheaper, better product that is actually being made at volume, the others will be irrelevant.
 

Ogre

Well-known member
First Name
Dennis
Joined
Jul 3, 2021
Messages
3,140
Reaction score
6,262
Location
Ogregon
Vehicles
Model Y
Country flag
The 1 million pre-orders is unprecedented in history. How can Tesla scale its assembly?
GigaAUSTIN priority is MY. Cybertruck was July 2021 delivery, now to late 2022 and/or full production 2023.
A big part of what is getting lost here is these Giga factories are built to scale… no **really scale**.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-giga-shanghai-1-million-model-3-model-y-target/

Shanghai is on a pace to output 800k cars next calendar year and they are expanding it to 1.2m cars in the same footprint.

For perspective, Texas is 3x Shanghai. Berlin is bigger than Shanghai as well. It’s likely Berlin eventually will produce more than 2m cars per year and Texas even more, perhaps as much as 5m/ year.

The Cybertruck is the first vehicle Tesla has made with manufacturing being the top priority so what they can do with the Cybertruck line is going to be quite interesting.
 

John K

Well-known member
First Name
John
Joined
Jan 2, 2020
Messages
1,427
Reaction score
2,493
Location
Los Angeles
Vehicles
Volt, CT reserve day 2
Country flag
Tesla needs to do something, Elon took OUR $103 billion in capital to hold our orders. Get it done?! Deliver it, again I don’t need a $140,000 Plaid CT, give me the $39,000 work truck that was shown us 2 years ago?!

Tesla rivals are starting to chip away at the market. Rivian, Ford. Etc. The Hummer EV gets released starting next month, GM rushed production?!


GM’s Hummer EV has 329-mile range, ‘Edition 1’ deliveries start in December
Jameson Dow
- Nov. 23rd 2021 5:20 pm PT


Hummer EV deliveries are imminent, slated to begin next month as confirmed today by GMC brand chief Duncan Aldred. While the truck will not be EPA rated, GM says it will have an all-electric range of 329 miles.
Do you not have the option to cancel your reservation and get your money back?

Why would you say 140k plaid CT. What reference did you use to predict this statement?
 

HaulingAss

Well-known member
First Name
Mike
Joined
Oct 3, 2020
Messages
853
Reaction score
1,467
Location
Washington State
Vehicles
2010 Ford F-150, 2018 Tesla Model 3 Performance
Country flag
The 1 million pre-orders is unprecedented in history. How can Tesla scale its assembly?
GigaAUSTIN priority is MY. Cybertruck was July 2021 delivery, now to late 2022 and/or full production 2023.
You ask how Tesla can scale it's assembly? Maybe you should check their production numbers over the last 4 years. Tesla scales production in three primary ways:

1) Increase throughput on existing production lines. Tesla has had great success in making more vehicles using the same production lines by speeding throughput and limiting line down-time. Currently, they build EV's at roughly 2-3 times the speed per car vs. VW.

2) Add additional production lines to existing factories. Tesla has maxed out production at their Fremont plant (ignoring possible future increases by leveraging principle #1) but all of their other production facilities have plenty of room for additional lines. GigaBerlin and GigaTexas were purchased and designed with future expansion in mind.

3) Add new factories. As Tesla approaches the limits of current factories, they build new ones. Currently, they have enough land and factories to get their production through 2025 simply by adding production areas to existing factories.

Also, while Elon did say volume production of Cybertruck is second half of 2022, that is not when he intends to start ramping production (they are two different things). The original plan was to have the first deliveries in the second haf of this year. That has been moved to the first half of next year, a delay (so far) of less than a year. Pretty much every EV from other manufacuters has been delayed well beyond the originally envisioned start of production, sometimes by a number of YEARS, so it's not too surprising that Tesla is not immune from small delays, particularly considering they could not have predicted COVID or the supply chain crisis.

GigaAUSTIN final occupancy no sooner than July 2022 means that even if Tesla jumpstarted CT like MY it couldn’t have the Giga project completed to accommodate vehicles at scale. Hence the question “How does Tesla overcome that 1million backlog?”
Huh? It's not clear where you are getting your information from. I expect initial occupency of the Texas plant like right now, Tesla doesn't need a final occupancy permit for the entire complex in order to start setting up production. That's what they are doing right now. Preparing for production.

As Tesla ramps the Cybertruck, unfilled demand will grow, not shrink, so I'm sure the Cybertruck backlog will not disappear for years. New people will see the product hit the streets and when the see how revolutionary it is the backlog will grow, not shrink. I think Tesla will constantly ramp new production lines for Cybertruck for years after the start of initial production. You will see unfathomable quantities of Cybertruck produced as the ramping continues. Having more demand than you can handle is a very good thing for Tesla's business.

First principle…finding the answer to that problem(good to have) is the gift horse for all Teslas. People aren’t buying EV’s. People are buying Teslas. Even my daughter who is holds TSLA wants to wait until she can afford to buy a Tesla. There is a tsunami of demand for Teslas already out there - its coming hard when it floods.
I'm not sure what you are saying there other than what's been obvious for years, Tesla has more demand for it's products than it can fill.



China is fully capable of flooding the US market with NEV cars. A new GigaFactory is 3 years away i.e. 2026. The feedback on offsite assembly of Cybertrucks was instructive. Turns out as you pointed out that Giga scale is an insurmountable obstacle to Tesla competitors and Tesla itself.
China cannot flood the US with EV's anytime soon. Chinese manufactures live within the same global battery supply/demand constraints as Tesla. The primary difference is Tesla has tied up much of the supply for years to come with pre-orders.

Tesla has to scale assembly lines. That constraint of vertical integration is a limiting factor. Without the data, IDK. Which are CT chokepoints? At what stage does assembly 2X? Halving deliver times? What point does a solution GigaSCALE(Tx,Berlin,Shanghai)?

The takeaway from this discussion for me is that any solution must be a GigaAUSTIN answer. That, that answer, will be picked up by GigaBerlin and GigaShanghai. More multi-billion plants are inbound to Tesla Gigafactories. Some of Tesla vertical integration must subsidiary or standalone plant in Austin or component-ize Tesla for Giga-assembly off-site.

That’s Horse Ranch LLC and expect more Project Bobcat-style developments on that 600+ ac. Names are being taken for TX racehorses for the new projects that will scale assembly lines.
Sorry, I don't understand any of the points you are making here other than you appear to be doubting Tesla's ability to scale production? That's OK, you have plenty of company there. Never mind that most of them are broke!
 

Ogre

Well-known member
First Name
Dennis
Joined
Jul 3, 2021
Messages
3,140
Reaction score
6,262
Location
Ogregon
Vehicles
Model Y
Country flag
Tesla needs to do something, Elon took OUR $103 billion in capital to hold our orders. Get it done?! Deliver it, again I don’t need a $140,000 Plaid CT, give me the $39,000 work truck that was shown us 2 years ago?!

Tesla rivals are starting to chip away at the market. Rivian, Ford. Etc. The Hummer EV gets released starting next month, GM rushed production?!
Tesla does not have $100b of our capital. They have 1.2m orders * 100 = $120,000,000 ($120m). $103 billion implies they have 1 billion orders. That would be truly impressive.

Rivian halted deliveries until February. If you are Rivian customer number 100, you won’t see your truck until 14+ months after it was originally promised. Assuming they get it out in February, it might be delayed again.

The Hummer is a joke, as you suggest, it’s a $110k beast which gets less range than expected, has a tiny bed and you need a step latter to mount it because the battery is 18” thick.

The Ford is still not out.

I don’t know what the $140k Plaid Cybertruck is, but shortly after launch, Tesla made it clear the single motor Trucks were going come later.
 

tidmutt

Well-known member
First Name
Daniel
Joined
Feb 25, 2020
Messages
271
Reaction score
383
Location
Somewhere hot and humid
Vehicles
Golf R, Tesla Model 3
Occupation
Software Architect
Country flag
Ha ha, thank you for the correction, I miss read 1.2 million orders, for 102 million. That is a big difference.

I am still leaning towards Elon jacking up the CT price with all the new tech they are formulating in the New designed Cybertruck. Us asking Tesla to absorbs the cost of new tech is wishful thinking. With a new Tesla carbon motor, and possible new batteries, why not dump the best options into the new CT. I cannot see the $79K Tri-motor price staying the same once we receive our emails for delivery.

Remember the $35 thousand dollar affordable Model 3, it is now starting at $44, 990 with all the new integrated tech features that were not available five years ago?! New customers have truly absorbed the cost of new innovation and part shortages.

Well now that I have gone off topic, the original point was, I agree with the original author that Tesla needs to build, so to be able to build the CT and deliver.
I love the idea of the truck, but I don't really need it. I want to take the kids camping in it, but that will be infrequent. If the price goes up too much I may as well buy a Model S. At that point I'll probably return to a Model Y Performance, although I'd love to get the 4680 based one, it should be out by then. Perhaps I should order a Model Y now, just in case, and just delay delivery until the 4680 version.

I for one hope Tesla honor the preorder price for a limited time after you are required to put down your next deposit amount. So as long as you commit to your order, you get the original offered price. Nice way to encourage more conversions...

Admittedly, they could just increase the price and still sell every truck they can make. I saw a story that a California Toyota dealer was selling a loaded RAV4 for $96K.... so what is $90K on a CT?

I like to think Tesla will return to cheaper pricing eventually, that is their stated goal, but why would they when they can't make enough cars. I suspect it will be a while.
 
Advertisement

 

TSLA Stock

Advertisement
Top