Tesla transition to solid state batteries

Tinker71

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I thought it foretelling that Rivian is proceeding with standard Lithium Ion batteries, yet holding off on actual battery plant investment until the bugs on solid state batteries are worked out. Volkswagen and Toyota appear to be doing the same for the next couple of years. Tesla probably has a 2 year lead on mass producing "standard" 4860 Lion batteries because they jumped in with 2 feet. That said, if solid state will eventually result in safer, faster, more energy dense batteries, Tesla will need to adopt that tech like everybody else. Any idea what this transition would look like? Will any of the equipment be transferable? What about the structural pack?

Does anybody out there believe that solid stat batteries are a hype to deflate Tesla's perceived lead. Seeds of doubt mentality?





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duck

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I thought it foretelling that Rivian is proceeding with standard Lithium Ion batteries, yet holding off on actual battery plant investment until the bugs on solid state batteries are worked out. Volkswagen and Toyota appear to be doing the same for the next couple of years. Tesla probably has a 2 year lead on mass producing "standard" 4860 Lion batteries because they jumped in with 2 feet. That said, if solid state will eventually result in safer, faster, more energy dense batteries, Tesla will need to adopt that tech like everybody else. Any idea what this transition would look like? Will any of the equipment be transferable? What about the structural pack?

Does anybody out there believe that solid stat batteries are a hype to deflate Tesla's perceived lead. Seeds of doubt mentality?
Key word in your post: "IF"
 

rr6013

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I thought it foretelling that Rivian is proceeding with standard Lithium Ion batteries, yet holding off on actual battery plant investment until the bugs on solid state batteries are worked out. Volkswagen and Toyota appear to be doing the same for the next couple of years. Tesla probably has a 2 year lead on mass producing "standard" 4860 Lion batteries because they jumped in with 2 feet. That said, if solid state will eventually result in safer, faster, more energy dense batteries, Tesla will need to adopt that tech like everybody else. Any idea what this transition would look like? Will any of the equipment be transferable? What about the structural pack?

Does anybody out there believe that solid stat batteries are a hype to deflate Tesla's perceived lead. Seeds of doubt mentality?
Right…like Wankle rotary engine was supposed to unseat the cast iron V8. Early technologies form insurmountable odds.

ATT aptly states that technological breakthrough must deliver 10x improvement.
 

akcoyote

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In my opinion, Tesla is already halfway there with their 4680 dry electrode process. Remember that solid state batteries just means replacing liquid or gel electrolytes with a solid material.

At this time solid state battery is mostly hype as nobody has demonstrated a reliable, energy dense, scalable concept. If such a battery can be developed at scale, I think Tesla would probably adopt it.

As to structural packs, I believe that can be accomplished with almost any battery type.
 
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Tinker71

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I think there is very little risk for Tesla fully embracing their current path. If there happens to be a breakthrough in design and manufacturing with solid state batteries in the next couple years Tesla will embrace it on their high end products just like everybody else, but they could still use up all their newly built capacity for stationary products and mid/low tier EVs. The stationary products are not as sensitive to density or charging speed or heat so the advantage with SS is less. Also if Tesla can truly get to sub $70 per kWhr at the pack level it won't really matter how much better SS is unless they get close on cost.
 

Jhodgesatmb

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Solid state batteries hold a lot of promise for the BEV industry, but it will be quite some time before they can be mass produced for vehicles. Tesla is doing the best it can by tweaking the Lithium-Ion battery and, just as importantly, everything related to it. I am confident that they are not resting on their laurels here, but moving ahead to new technologies, while at the same time making certain that their vehicles can do get the best of all available battery features (stability, range, temperature independence, longevity, performance, charge time, etc.). Tesla's approach is to try to drive the battery price down and improve infrastructure, which will increase BEV adoption. They have already hit a point where range, at least on the new 4680 cells, will no longer be a limiting factor.
 

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unless it is waiting for CT of course :)
The Cybertruck is a known unknown. We know it has a schedule and a release date.

I don’t think Tesla has the option to wait. There could be 10 new proven tech tomorrow and they still will have use for the old tech.
Exactly. They have more demand than they can make cars. They cannot wait. They need factories yesterday and so have to build tomorrow's today. You can't do that for solid state yet. There are a few starting to ramp up, but... They will not produce the numbers of cells Tesla needs next year.

So they're ramping technology they can now.

and in the long run, it doesn't matter - more batteries produced is better.

-Crissa
 

RonM

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While talking batteries, I hope Musk branches out on all sizes and shapes....APPLE IPHONE could use a good long life battery. The ones they are using now turn into :poop: in a very short period of time!
 

Crissa

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APPLE IPHONE could use a good long life battery.
Phones use 100% of their capacity, frequently, and charge as fast as they can. That's really hard on the batteries. Add to that, they're built for lightness...

...And the apps you use greedily use up that energy. Web pages and trackers and apps constantly are trying to steal your clock cycles doing things you don't actually want.

They just can't do the kinds of controlled thermal conditioning, reserve capacity, and low usage that you can in a vehicle.

-Crissa
 

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I don't see Tesla waiting to do anything. They could have stopped at any time and just made a car that was good enough, batteries that were good enough, safety that was good enough, and left the charging network to someone else. They haven't stopped improving on their own designs yet. In my humble opinion, the Cybertruck with the 4680 batteries will outlast me by decades, even if I live to be 150 with the body of a teenager (I can dream!). We are already witnessing the production of vehicles by Tesla that will become functional heirlooms if the owners don't get bored with the vintage aesthetic. Except for the charging time period on long trips, solid state batteries offer me nothing in the real world. We can already expect Tesla's current battery chemistries to outlast current I.C.E. expected lifespan 5 times over. Personally, I have no clue how many years it would take me at my current use and abuse to actually degrade a Tesla battery enough that I would notice.
 

RonM

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Phones use 100% of their capacity, frequently, and charge as fast as they can. That's really hard on the batteries. Add to that, they're built for lightness...

...And the apps you use greedily use up that energy. Web pages and trackers and apps constantly are trying to steal your clock cycles doing things you don't actually want.

They just can't do the kinds of controlled thermal conditioning, reserve capacity, and low usage that you can in a vehicle.

-Crissa
SO your opinion is that cell phone batteries have hit the wall and will never improve?:cry:
 

CompMaster

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Cell phone tech will update, just not at the rate that we want due to size and scale. Thus Apple and Google currently took action from what they can control and changed the software.

APPLE IPHONE could use a good long life battery. The ones they are using now turn into :poop: in a very short period of time!
Unfortunately that is by design. They are designed from the ground up to last 1 year so that way you want (forced) to buy the latest and greatest. To top it off pre-order devices are the best to buy as those have a higher chance of have all new parts. Anything after *may* have used parts in your new device that us factory sealed. For those reasons I left working for them and can no longer support a company with those practices. I even took them off my portfolio..
 

LoPro

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I don’t know about that. I *know* that is sadly common with today’s electronic products compared to when companies took pride in making things that lasted the longest. But I bought an Apple iPhone 5c for my mother in 2013 and she only replaced it with an iPhone 12 this year as the latest iOS update was the first that didn’t support the 5c, and her bank’s app upgraded to only support the latest iOS version. Myself I always pass down my iPhones to my kids and wife and they use them until the price of replacing any broken glass is more than the phone is worth.

Anyway, that’s for another thread and perhaps forum.

Isn’t Teslas subsidiary Maxwell Technologies famous for working on solid state batteries? I would think Tesla is on the ball here (if solid state proves worthwhile).
https://www.maxwell.com/
 
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