Old Spice

Well-known member
First Name
Ben
Joined
Nov 15, 2019
Messages
139
Reaction score
429
Location
Katy TX
Vehicles
F-150, Polaris RZR
Country flag
Tesla (TSLA) gets bullish forecast with conservative Cybertruck estimate

via Teslarati - https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-cybertruck-production-morgan-stanley/

Posted on July 28, 2021

Following a blockbuster quarter that saw Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) post $1.1 billion of GAAP net income and $1.6 billion of non-GAAP net income, Morgan Stanley has published a note outlining its forecasts for the EV maker. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas was bullish in his note, stating that the bigger story in Tesla’s strong quarter was the company’s EBITDA, as well as its battery “skunkworks” flywheel.

With Tesla posting its strongest quarter yet, Jonas opted to make some modifications to Morgan Stanley’s Tesla earnings model. These include a FY21 total delivery estimate of 835k vehicles, up from 832k units prior. For the rest of 2021, Morgan Stanley noted that Tesla would likely deliver 212k vehicles in the third quarter and 236k vehicles in Q4 2011. The investment bank’s 2025 delivery forecast remained at 3.1 million cars, while the 2030 forecast remained at 5.6 million.

Morgan Stanley also shared some forecasts for Tesla’s Cybertruck production, which is expected to enter its beta phase later this year. According to Jonas, Cybertruck volumes would likely start in 2022 and ramp to 15k total units during the year, to 283k units annually by 2030. Morgan Stanley also assumed an ATP of $65k in 2022.

Needless to say, Morgan Stanley’s Cybertruck production estimates are incredibly conservative. An estimate of 15,000 units for 2022 translates to less than 300 Cybertrucks per week, after all, which seems very low. There seems to be a slim chance that Tesla would only be maintaining a production rate of 5,500 Cybertruck’s per week by 2030 as well, especially considering that Giga Texas is a facility built to produce the all-electric pickup truck.

It should be noted that this is not the first time Morgan Stanley has posted a bullish note on Tesla with an incredibly conservative production estimate. Back in 2019, analyst Adam Jonas published a note estimating the output of Gigafactory Shanghai, which was still under construction then. Jonas was quite bullish, stating that Tesla was on track to become China’s “leading luxury EV player.” He did, however, only expect Tesla to produce 35,000 to 40,000 Model 3 for 2020, ramping to 60,000 vehicles per year in 2021.

Tesla’s Gigafactory Shanghai produced a total of 30,896 vehicles in June 2021 alone, comprised of 22,118 Model 3 and 8,778 Model Y.
Advertisement

 

John K

Well-known member
First Name
John
Joined
Jan 2, 2020
Messages
1,034
Reaction score
1,621
Location
Los Angeles
Vehicles
Volt, CT reserve day 2
Country flag
Oh look, hindsight.

”With Tesla posting its strongest quarter yet, Jonas opted to make some modifications to Morgan Stanley’s Tesla earnings model.”
 

Ogre

Well-known member
First Name
Dennis
Joined
Jul 3, 2021
Messages
1,867
Reaction score
3,444
Location
Ogregon
Vehicles
Model Y
Country flag
An estimate of 15,000 units for 2022 translates to less than 300 Cybertrucks per week, after all, which seems very low.
This isn't predicting 300 trucks per week. The only way this is possible is if start of production is delayed until Q4 2022.

Seems pretty unlikely Tesla is going to start producing Cybertruck's unless they can sustain production of at least 1,000 per week.
 

rr6013

Well-known member
First Name
Rex
Joined
Apr 22, 2020
Messages
683
Reaction score
610
Location
Piedras Gordas Panama
Website
shorttakes.substack.com
Vehicles
1997 Tahoe 2 door 4x4
Occupation
Retired software developer and heavy commercial design builder
Country flag
GigaAUSTIN may originally have been envisioned as Cybertruck and Semi production capacity — then MY. Gigaplants loft vehicles. Elon is maxing MY marketshare while Tesla can. So it didn’t turn out that way.

I do not view Morgan Stanley‘s production figures for Cybertruck as conservative at all. Construction progress as far back as Feb ‘21 pushed CT SOP beginning Q2 ‘22, IMHO. Elon’s latest earnings call quip 4680 there more to do bodes ill for Q2 SOP for CT.

What if it were true Q3 ‘22 is CT full production capacity out of TX? What’s reasonable ramp over Q3-Q4? Morgan Stanley 15000 units?
 

pstansel74

Member
First Name
Paul
Joined
Feb 24, 2020
Messages
5
Reaction score
4
Location
Connecticut
Vehicles
Model 3
Occupation
Computer Consultant
Country flag
I admit to being concerned by the conservative estimate. It would probably be 2024 before I saw my CT if that held true.
 

Jamessmooth007

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 23, 2020
Messages
46
Reaction score
72
Location
Northern California
Vehicles
Cybertruck
Country flag
I admit to being concerned by the conservative estimate. It would probably be 2024 before I saw my CT if that held true.
Where are you at "in line?" I could believe 15k CTs next year just because there's more to do. When Elon came out and said during the earnings call that CT production will be difficult because its a new architecture, that says a lot about where they're at.
 

tmeyer3

Well-known member
First Name
Trevor
Joined
Jun 27, 2021
Messages
292
Reaction score
536
Location
CA
Vehicles
Model 3, Wrangler, Tractors
Occupation
Computer Scientist
Country flag
Trucks? Lol check out their virtual power plant shenanigans. Wall street is so focused on Tesla being a car company that no one has noticed that Tesla has already staged itself to potentially become the world's largest power plant over night.

Tesla is NOT a car company, it's a tech company. As far as I'm concerned, that would be like calling Apple or Google a phone company and drawing stock comparisons between them and, oh I don't know, plus one?

As far as you can trust a random guy on the internet, I suggest you double down on Tesla shares.
 
Last edited:

happy intruder

Well-known member
First Name
O. K.
Joined
Mar 5, 2020
Messages
332
Reaction score
228
Location
Irvine
Vehicles
Model 3 Jun 2019..... Model S Jan 2020
Occupation
Retired
Country flag
Once Tesla starts production, they will be producing 1000s of trucks per week. Not right away but within a quarter or two.
well i am at 46,160......when should I look at getting my truck......4Q22?
 

Ogre

Well-known member
First Name
Dennis
Joined
Jul 3, 2021
Messages
1,867
Reaction score
3,444
Location
Ogregon
Vehicles
Model Y
Country flag
well i am at 46,160......when should I look at getting my truck......4Q22?
First, look at Fremont. Tesla Fremont is cranking out 600,000 cars a year. That’s 11,000 per week!!

Texas is a bigger facility and it has 2 production lines—Model Y and Cybertruck. I can see Tesla building 1,000,000 vehicles a year out of the new Texas facility. It’s a bigger facility designed for this purpose (Fremont was an existing factory they repurposed and significant production goes through a *tent*. They have 4 Giga Presses installed in Texas as opposed to 1 in Fremont; 2 of those are expressly for the Cybertruck. The Gigapresses are going to make things a lot more efficient.

What the exact mix of vehicles is remains to be seen, but keep one thing in mind.

The Model Y was designed to look like a proper/ normal/ 2.5 kids and one dog American CUV. The Cybertruck was designed to be easy to build. It’s bigger, requires more raw materials, but aside from the battery issues should scale better than the Model Y. They don’t need paint and it has fewer build steps.

From start of design to finish, Tesla designed this truck to be easy to build.

I fully expect Cybertruck production to be greater than 250,000 units per year. Likely it will peak much higher than that.

So much depends on other things like battery supply, steel supply, etc. If they can only produce enough 4680 batteries for 100,000 trucks in the first year, they clearly won’t hit that number.

I expect my truck at around 65,000 will be ready by delivery within the first 6 months after production start.
 
Last edited:

Sirfun

Well-known member
First Name
Joe
Joined
Dec 28, 2019
Messages
988
Reaction score
1,736
Location
Oxnard, California
Vehicles
Toyota Avalon, Chrysler Pacifica PHEV, Ford E-250
Occupation
Retired Sheet Metal Worker
Country flag
Think about this. Elon wants to transition the world to EV's. Ford sold 900,000 F150's in 2019. That's just Ford.
How much of a dent would 15,000 trucks by the end of 2022 make in the grand scheme of things. Why is Giga Texas, the largest building ever built in the U.S. being built as fast as possible? It sure as hell isn't to produce only 15,000 Cybertrucks in the next year and a half!!!
Tesla is on a mission!!
 

Ogre

Well-known member
First Name
Dennis
Joined
Jul 3, 2021
Messages
1,867
Reaction score
3,444
Location
Ogregon
Vehicles
Model Y
Country flag
Did a little digging and Musk‘s projections were pretty close to mine.

https://insideevs.com/news/445897/tesla-may-produce-250000-cybertrucks-annually/ said:
Elon Musk has suggested during Tesla Battery Day that the company may produce a quarter-million Cybertrucks a year: "There's probably room for at least unit volume of 250,000 to 300,000 a year, maybe more."
 
Advertisement

 
Advertisement
Top