The end will come with a whimper not a bang

[Ogre]

One by one, companies are quietly stopping development of ICE vehicles, ICE engines, and ICE transmissions.

https://media.subaru.com/pressrelease/1881/117/statement-subaru-sti

Volvo and Hyundai have both stopped new engineering and design on ICE entirely.

It’s likely most car brands are on their last ICE generation. I’m sure they will keep the current designs in circulation for at least a few years and there might be a generation of some cars which are nearly complete that get pushed out the door. But it’s likely we won’t see another generation of Corvettes launched.

Which makes me sad because GM is truly bad at EVs. I would love to see a great electric Corvette released.

Trucks are likely at least a few years behind. Might be another generation or two of each. Maybe.

Sponsored

 

[CyberGus]

The development cost of an engine is in the billions of dollars. There's just not enough ROI going forward on ICE technology.

 

[Ogre]

When I see people suggest ICE will last for another 10 years I just have to shake my head.

In 5 years gas car and truck technology will be frozen forever in time.

There will be new engines built for Caterpillars and other heavy equipment for some time. Maybe even long haul delivery. But basic consumer cars and trucks? It’s just done. The ICE industry will be running on fumes for after 2026 or so.

 

[ldjessee]

Caterpillar in 2019 built a 26 ton excavator that was BEV.
Not sure if even those kind of equipment will be made with ICE for another 10 years.

Here is what always floored me. Your deep in a mine, where air has to be brought down, so why would you run equipment that takes air, you already have electricity brought down, why not BEV mining equipment? Would have made for a better environment, less issues, cause the engine is not sucking up all that particulate matter, etc etc...

Just seemed like where BEV (or even with a small battery and an umbilical) made sense.
But I also thought it made sense to make those machines remote operated, so there where less people in the mine...

 

[Ogre]

Caterpillar in 2019 built a 26 ton excavator that was BEV.

The big problem with heavy equipment of any sort is sheer amount of energy you have and the difficulty in getting power to many locations where they operate.

I’m in Oregon. Logging is everywhere. They set up a logging operation on the side of a mountain serviced by forest roads. The only way they are going to be able to service the equipment up there with power is if they run a temporary power line up the mountain. Those things might have multi-Gigawatt cells in them.

It might happen at some point, but that’s a long way out.

In a mine, it makes tons of sense to run power down to the equipment. As you suggest, lots of benefits there aside from just the carbon and with mines, they are fixed/ semi permanent routes.

Construction sites, logging operations, forest fire fighting, lots of other use-cases where its a lot harder to get huge amounts of power to temporary operations.

 

[Crissa]

It's still easier to power them with a generator on a truck than build the generator into the equipment.

Why this changeover hasn't happened years ago since electric motors have been superior to hydraulics for about twenty years is baffling.

Industrial momentum, I guess.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

It's still easier to power them with a generator on a truck than build the generator into the equipment.

Why this changeover hasn't happened years ago since electric motors have been superior to hydraulics for about twenty years is baffling.

Industrial momentum, I guess.

-Crissa

Heavy equipment seems like it would be a good fit for big hydrogen fuel cells. Either a big one on site that recharges the battery powered equipment, or individual cells on each piece of equipment could work.

I’m kind of picturing a truck that drives down to a hydrogen station once a day and tops off then generates power on demand to top off everything else or refill hydrogen in the other equipment.

The big problem is transitioning.

 

[JBee]

Most large mining machinery and diggers are umbilical powered electric anyway, they pull the cable behind them hence the name "dragline". Some are 12,000 tons and have dozens of MW electric motors and pulleys. Old tech, but cost effective and low maintenance with no batteries in sight.

Funnily enough, I'm looking at purchasing my last ICE 4x4 suv atm. It's actually quite hard to find something that is decent and available let alone is as cost effective as a CT.

 

[Crissa]

I saw a big drilling setup on the street the other day, and there's one truck that's the generator and the other truck carries the rest of the rig.

Electricity is just easier to plug together than other sources of power, and more agnostic of fuel or source.

-Crissa

 

[larryboy31]

[

I’m in Oregon. Logging is everywhere. They set up a logging operation on the side of a mountain serviced by forest roads. The only way they are going to be able to service the equipment up there with power is if they run a temporary power line up the mountain. Those things might have multi-Gigawatt cells in them.

If you are logging high up on a mountain you might be able to get your truck back up with the power that regen braking puts into your battery on the way down

 

[Crissa]

Hence, if you need a camp, you bring in a generator truck and park it next to the line dragger or your loading cut and it sits there with whatever energy you need.

Then you only have one generator to worry about, and your machines can work whether you're tapping solar, diesel, or a water wheel.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

If you are logging high up on a mountain you might be able to get your truck back up with the power that regen braking puts into your battery on the way down

They are talking about doing this in Australia right now.

https://www.scitecheuropa.eu/electr...battery-will-charge-itself-with-gravity/2338/

That example is with a train which is likely much more efficient at both generating and consuming power, but it should work with a semi too. At the very least, it should significantly reduce the amount of power they consume.

The logging trucks themselves are really ideal for the electrification.

 

[Crissa]

https://www.scitecheuropa.eu/electr...battery-will-charge-itself-with-gravity/2338/

Don't think about it too heavily, either, or you start wondering why they haven't been tapping regenerative braking for decades. Because locomotives have had electric drive for quite some time now with just generators attached to them.

And rail is electrified when it pulls into urban stations, for instance. That's been true since the nineteenth century!

But while they knew motors worked backwards, we've been throwing that energy away. Just think! They could have been absorbing every train slowing down into New York right into the grid but never thought about it. That would be no different than a bunch of people turning a kettle on... or off.

-Crissa

 

[firsttruck]

Heavy equipment seems like it would be a good fit for big hydrogen fuel cells. Either a big one on site that recharges the battery powered equipment, or individual cells on each piece of equipment could work.

I’m kind of picturing a truck that drives down to a hydrogen station once a day and tops off then generates power on demand to top off everything else or refill hydrogen in the other equipment.

The big problem is transitioning.

Hydrogen's problem is much more than transitioning.

You need all new & expensive infrastructure (pipelines, tanks, station pumps, etc) because hydrogen gas would leak out all over the place in existing natural gas pipelines & storage because hydrogen is a much smaller molecule.

Billions of dollars in hydrogen infrastructure that will only be used by large trucks would not be cost effective when even if the infrastructure was free the hydrogen gas fuel would cost at least twice as much per unit.


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Naysayer Alert – the hydrogen red herring
Guest Post by John Murray
August 22nd, 2020
https://myelectriccar.com.au/naysayer-alert-the-hydrogen-red-herring/
.....
Finally, and as already indicated, hydrogen FCEVs require a large and expensive distribution infra structure, in order to enable long distance travel. In essence this mandates a complete billion dollar replication of the oil industry’s distribution network. Such an infrastructure will be more expensive than the current oil infrastructure because of the unavoidable pressurization needs to give sufficient energy density by volume. It is this infrastructure factor that has meant the Honda FCX Clarity is only available for lease in particular areas, i.e. those that have a hydrogen refuelling outlet. This factor too, means hydrogen powered FCEV will always be far more expensive to purchase and operate than a simple battery electric vehicle.

.....
Reinforcing this perspective, a 2018 paper from a team of Queensland university researchers “Where are we headed with electric vehicles?” [5] evaluated the comparative efficiencies of various power trains including ICE (petrol and diesel), FCEV, PHEV and the pure EV. This study did not just look at the efficiencies of the stand-alone vehicles but also the efficiencies of the full ‘well-to-wheel’ energy pathways. The hydrogen FCEV was shown to have a well-to-wheel efficiency of only 22%, compared with 20% for diesel and 14% for petrol. The pure EV had an efficiency of 67% across the full well-to-wheel analysis, three times that of the FCEV and almost five times that of the petrol-powered ICE[5], again highlighting the stupid energy pathways of fossil fuels. Hydrogen’s fuel-path inefficiency problems are also discussed in another paper by Tom Baxter of Aberdeen University, “Hydrogen cars won’t overtake electric vehicles because they’re hampered by the laws of science” [10]. Baxter details the unavoidable efficiency losses of the hydrogen fuel pathway due to the energy vector transition wherein energy is converted from one medium, electrical to chemical (hydrogen), back to electrical and finally to kinetic energy. Baxter puts the theoretical efficiency of hydrogen FCEVs at 38% at best, compared to 80% for a full battery electric vehicle, basically showing that the conversion losses for hydrogen energy pathways are little better than fossil fuels and fundamentally, inescapable. “…and hydrogen vehicles come with the other great disadvantage of internal combustion powered cars, not being able to refuel them at home”

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Where are we heading with electric vehicles?
October 2018
Authors:
Jake Whitehead The University of Queensland
Robin Smit Transport Energy/Emission Research
Simon Washington Queensland University of Technology
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/328782184_Where_are_we_heading_with_electric_vehicles

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Hydrogen will NEVER work here is why!
Mar 18, 2022
BestInTESLA

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[firsttruck]

They are talking about doing this in Australia right now.

https://www.scitecheuropa.eu/electr...battery-will-charge-itself-with-gravity/2338/

That example is with a train which is likely much more efficient at both generating and consuming power, but it should work with a semi too. At the very least, it should significantly reduce the amount of power they consume.

The logging trucks themselves are really ideal for the electrification.

BEV truck never needs external charge & even gives power TO the grid

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Switzerland's electric mining dump truck charges itself
This self-charging mining truck is the world's largest electric vehicle
It saves 50,000 tons of diesel annually

Is a converted diesel truck. This BEV conversion actual supports
higher carrying payloads than the original diesel version. The
original deisel truck used tons of fossil fuel and suffered from very
frequent & expensive brake replacements.


This massive 45-ton electric dump truck never uses more energy than it
generates on its own — here's how that works
By Graham Rapier
Aug 24, 2019
https://www.businessinsider.com/edumper-121-ton-electric-dump-truck-2019-8?r=MX&IR=T


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eDumper - The BIGGEST EV in the world!
Jun 21, 2019
Lucas di Grassi

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Electric Dumper | Heavy Duty EV that recharges itself | Elektro Dumper
| eDumper
EDumper is manufactured by German Company Kuhn Schweitz,
Elektro Dumper is 30-feet long, 14-feet wide, 14-feet tall and weighs
45 tonnes when empty. It is powered by a 4.4-tonne battery – about the
weight of a teenage elephant – with a capacity of 600 kWh.
eDumper is designed in such a way that a failing cell cannot affect
neighbouring cells.

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part of eDumper video with narration by eCharged

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eMining uses the latest technology
and safe batteries for your products
https://www.emining.ch/en/technology.html

.....
THE ROLE OF THE UNIVERSITIES OF APPLIED SCIENCE IN THE eDUMPER PROJECT
THE BINARY EDUCATION SYSTEM IS THE BEST PREREQUISITE FOR LINKING
THEORY WITH PRACTICE

On the basis of experience, research and development concentrates on
the main drive and power supply strand. The academic partners specify
the power and lifespan parameters for the specific order based on
lifespan models tested on ESReC (Energy Storage Research Center)
equipment. In terms of stationary operation, this involved primarily
emergency power supplies and uninterruptible power supplies for
computer centres and operating theatres in hospitals, which resorted
to energy stored in batteries. Almost as a by-product of the rapid
eMobile development which uses high-voltage batteries, but also thanks
to experience with direct-current batteries in all voltage categories,
** energy can now be used on a time-shifted basis and can even be
optimally fed into the grid on a deferred basis. **

This is where the interests of the Federal Office of Energy come to
the fore. In the implementation of the Swiss Federal Council's energy
strategy, electrical mobility and grid storage play a key role, and
are also eligible for financial grants.

USE IN STEEP TERRAIN
eDUMPER NO.1 AS THE FIRST PLUS ENERGY VEHICLE

Between August and November 2017 the components evaluated in
accordance with the calculated specifications were installed into the
empty chassis of a used HD 605 7. The hydraulic pumps for the
multi-disk brakes, tipper drive, servo support and pre-loading of the
auxiliary braking system are driven by an additional 120 kW electric
motor produced in the Bernese Oberland. Space was made available for
the 4 battery blocks, 710 kWh in total, in the engine compartment, the
cooling system and the space previously occupied by the diesel tank. .

**BFH - ESReC: lifespan model; NTB: thermal management of the battery
to increase working life and ensure reliable operation; EMPA: security
and reliability of the converted vehicle and electrical systems.


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eMining’s eDumper is the world’s largest electric truck
** has large image of concept
https://www.electrive.com/2018/04/23/empas-edumper-is-the-worlds-largest-electric-truck/

.....
The eDumper was rebuilt on the basis of a Komatsu HD 605-7 dump truck.
In order to optimally size the electric drive, researchers at the Bern
University of Applied Sciences at the Institute for Energy and
Mobility Research IEM equipped the conventional model with a variety
of sensors so that numerous measurement data could be obtained.

The BFH Energy Storage Research Centre then dealt with the evaluation
of suitable battery cells and the cooling of a battery module.

In order to guarantee the longevity and robustness of the technology,
the Interstate University of Applied Sciences Buchs investigated the
vibrations of the diesel dump truck in real use and the heat emission
of the battery cells of the future eDumper. This research team also
designed the thermal management for the battery pack, calculated the
necessary strength of the battery holders and the design of the
welding seams. It is also responsible for monitoring the eDumper
battery in real use.

To ensure the fire safety of such a large battery cell, the Swiss
Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology Empa
examined the behavior of the Li-Ion cells used in the event of a short
circuit or mechanical damage. Never before has a land vehicle been
equipped with such a huge battery pack. The eDumper is now designed in
such a way that a failing cell cannot affect neighbouring cells.



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