The Tesla Semi: Why Now? // The Road to Commercial Viability -- [The Limiting Factor]

[firsttruck]

The Tesla Semi: Why Now? // The Road to Commercial Viability
Today I'll be covering why the Tesla Semi was released now, the road to commercial viability, and why there were delays from 2019 to 2022. In short, there were a series of limiting factors that the Tesla had to break through to reach commercially viability.
Feb 19, 2023
The Limiting Factor

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[sstevens805]

The true limiting factor is weight. I don't think there are enough people with experience in transportation engaged in the conversation. I had an opportunity to ride in a Nikola a few months back, and I'm heading to check out the electric Peterbilt at a dealer event tomorrow. When I ask the question of what the truck weighs, they don't like to answer. The Nikola weighs 29k lbs and our fleet weighs 12k. Our contracts are based on weight and we can haul (80k-12k-17k) 51k per load. With a Nikola it's (82k-29k-17k) 36k which means we're giving up 15k per load. Additionally, to make up for the lost weight we'd have to buy more equipment and hire more drivers (there are fewer drivers entering the market than exiting). I'd like to see the us move to electricity, but right now it's not viable.

 

[WHIZZARD OF OZ]

The true limiting factor is weight. I don't think there are enough people with experience in transportation engaged in the conversation. I had an opportunity to ride in a Nikola a few months back, and I'm heading to check out the electric Peterbilt at a dealer event tomorrow. When I ask the question of what the truck weighs, they don't like to answer. The Nikola weighs 29k lbs and our fleet weighs 12k. Our contracts are based on weight and we can haul (80k-12k-17k) 51k per load. With a Nikola it's (82k-29k-17k) 36k which means we're giving up 15k per load. Additionally, to make up for the lost weight we'd have to buy more equipment and hire more drivers (there are fewer drivers entering the market than exiting). I'd like to see the us move to electricity, but right now it's not viable.

To the best of my knowledge, the heavier SEMI comes in ~300-400kgs above the traditional diesel. Some benifits & efficiencies in the Tesla could be coming from Aero and Motors. imo

 

[Ogre]

The true limiting factor is weight. I don't think there are enough people with experience in transportation engaged in the conversation. I had an opportunity to ride in a Nikola a few months back, and I'm heading to check out the electric Peterbilt at a dealer event tomorrow. When I ask the question of what the truck weighs, they don't like to answer. The Nikola weighs 29k lbs and our fleet weighs 12k. Our contracts are based on weight and we can haul (80k-12k-17k) 51k per load. With a Nikola it's (82k-29k-17k) 36k which means we're giving up 15k per load. Additionally, to make up for the lost weight we'd have to buy more equipment and hire more drivers (there are fewer drivers entering the market than exiting). I'd like to see the us move to electricity, but right now it's not viable.

The US allows electric semis to be a bit heavier than ICE semis. It’s my understanding that the Tesla semi weighs about the same as a traditional truck plus that weight allowance.

That said… lots of specs are not public and the only ones outside of Tesla using them are keeping quiet about specifics. Tesla is keeping details on this close for the moment.

 

[sstevens805]

The US allows electric semis to be a bit heavier than ICE semis. It’s my understanding that the Tesla semi weighs about the same as a traditional truck plus that weight allowance.

That said… lots of specs are not public and the only ones outside of Tesla using them are keeping quiet about specifics. Tesla is keeping details on this close for the moment.

Alternative fuel trucks get 2k lbs, I added that into my equation. I know they'll be lighter than Nikola but I have a hard time believing they'll be anywhere near a ICE truck. A heavy tandem axle truck is 18k and the tandems we run are around the 16k mark. I hope I'm wrong, but I think it's telling that the first trucks went to Pepsi/Frito Lay. They move potato chips which weigh nothing relative to the size of the bags.

 

[Ogre]

Alternative fuel trucks get 2k lbs, I added that into my equation. I know they'll be lighter than Nikola but I have a hard time believing they'll be anywhere near a ICE truck. A heavy tandem axle truck is 18k and the tandems we run are around the 16k mark. I hope I'm wrong, but I think it's telling that the first trucks went to Pepsi/Frito Lay. They move potato chips which weigh nothing relative to the size of the bags.

Assuming same energy density as a Model 3, the semi’s pack would weigh around 9,000 pounds. A traditional semi’s engine and transmission weigh what?? 2,000-3,000 pounds? What is fuel weight? Another 700 pounds For 100 gallons?

I can see the Tesla semi being within 4,000 - 6,000 pounds of a traditional semi. Add in the 2,000 pound allowance and there is likely to be a small penalty, but nothing near the 15,000 pound difference you were talking about.

Maybe your company always runs with max weight, but the average truck cargo is less than that. Lots of different loads come in under max. Think about all of the trucks full of goods going to WallyMart or Costco. Lots of goods in those are less dense.


PS, Pepsi isn’t the only company running these. Tesla has their own fleet of at least a dozen trucks in use out of Nevada.

 

[sstevens805]

Assuming same energy density as a Model 3, the semi’s pack would weigh around 9,000 pounds. A traditional semi’s engine and transmission weigh what?? 2,000-3,000 pounds? What is fuel weight? Another 700 pounds For 100 gallons?

I can see the Tesla semi being within 4,000 - 6,000 pounds of a traditional semi. Add in the 2,000 pound allowance and there is likely to be a small penalty, but nothing near the 15,000 pound difference you were talking about.

Maybe your company always runs with max weight, but the average truck cargo is less than that. Lots of different loads come in under max. Think about all of the trucks full of goods going to WallyMart or Costco. Lots of goods in those are less dense.


PS, Pepsi isn’t the only company running these. Tesla has their own fleet of at least a dozen trucks in use out of Nevada.

If Tesla comes within 4-6k Nikola is done. Cost is the other giant ???? . I believe they said the Nikola is $400k, which is hard for me to believe. So If Tesla can come in under that price tag with lower weight it's curtains for Nikola.

You're right about other companies, I tend to get caught up in how it applies to my world, which is bulk agriculture and market deliveries.

Hopefully they'll release detailed specs soon. Do you know when they're releasing them?

 

[Ogre]

If Tesla comes within 4-6k Nikola is done. Cost is the other giant ???? . I believe they said the Nikola is $400k, which is hard for me to believe. So If Tesla can come in under that price tag with lower weight it's curtains for Nikola.

You're right about other companies, I tend to get caught up in how it applies to my world, which is bulk agriculture and market deliveries.

Hopefully they'll release detailed specs soon. Do you know when they're releasing them?

Yeah bulk stuff can hit load caps in a hurry.

I can’t see how Nikola can survive. Batteries are likely 50%+ of the cost of these things and Tesla has a massive advantage in cell costs. Tesla also has a massive advantage in engineering talent as well.

 

[charliemagpie]

It would have to be carrying cargo which can be palleted to max out the truck load. Such as bricks?, or maybe liquid?.

With only couple of 000's lb's of leeway, I would venture to say, being able to max out a pallet, would be uncommon. And even so, the savings would surely make up for that.

 

[Ogre]

It would have to be carrying cargo which can be palleted to max out the truck load. Such as bricks?, or maybe liquid?.

With only couple of 000's lb's of leeway, I would venture to say, being able to max out a pallet, would be uncommon. And even so, the savings would surely make up for that.

I think you are assuming it’ll be limited to box trailers. We’ve already seen it pulling a load of Teslas and they demoed it with a flatbed pulling concrete barriers. It’ll pull just anything a normal semi does. Grain can be quite heavy, also gravel or rock.

I think it would be particularly good for quarry work since that’s mostly lots of short 20-30 miles tripe with low speed dumping at the end. Though they need to come out with a transfer dump version.

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