Tri-Motor Delay?

TheLastStarfighter

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The Model S Plaid + has been delayed to "Mid-2022".

https://electrek.co/2021/03/11/tesla-delays-model-s-plaid-plus-mid-2022/

According to the article (and common sense), the Plaid+ will be the first S to use the new batteries. I suspect the tri-motor CT will also use the new batteries (Elon has said they would be in the CT and Roadster), while the Dual Motor may not - and thus explain the differences in range. With the delay in Plaid +, I'm assuming it's probably because the batteries aren't ready for full production, and that would also impact the CT3. This goes along with Elon's recent interview with Joe Rogen where he said the "initial model" would have "around 300 miles" of range. I said at the time that I got a less than hyped vibe off of Elon when it came to the CT - there was no "500+ miles, it will be insane!" kind of response. I think it's largely due to challenges getting the new batteries up to speed.

Reservations of Dual's should be happy though, with no Tri's competing for early production time. With further delays in batteries, maybe even Singles will hit production early.
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Jhodgesatmb

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The Model S Plaid + has been delayed to "Mid-2022".

https://electrek.co/2021/03/11/tesla-delays-model-s-plaid-plus-mid-2022/

According to the article (and common sense), the Plaid+ will be the first S to use the new batteries. I suspect the tri-motor CT will also use the new batteries (Elon has said they would be in the CT and Roadster), while the Dual Motor may not - and thus explain the differences in range. With the delay in Plaid +, I'm assuming it's probably because the batteries aren't ready for full production, and that would also impact the CT3. This goes along with Elon's recent interview with Joe Rogen where he said the "initial model" would have "around 300 miles" of range. I said at the time that I got a less than hyped vibe off of Elon when it came to the CT - there was no "500+ miles, it will be insane!" kind of response. I think it's largely due to challenges getting the new batteries up to speed.

Reservations of Dual's should be happy though, with no Tri's competing for early production time. With further delays in batteries, maybe even Singles will hit production early.
All CTs are supposed to get the nickel version of the 4680 cells, so it shouldn’t matter what you ordered. I wouldn’t put too much faith in what was said on this podcast or that, or Twitter, or just about any media outlet. The factory is being built at a good clip and they should be ready to start building structure on what Joe Tegtmeyer calls the battery factory very soon. I bet that structure will be up inside two months, certainly by Memorial Day. They don’t even have walls on the casting area and they already have a Giga press, it’s smelting plant, a robot, and a bridge crane in it. I am as anxious as you or anyone but I don’t think it is time to sweat, yet.
 

Tinker71

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The Plaid+ was delayed, but we don't know if it's a reason that would also delay the tri-motor CT.

It's probably not the batteries.

-Crissa
I don't think the tri will be delayed for technical reasons. Battery constraints yes. If Tesla has a choice to sell a Plaid S with a 200 kWh battery at a 40% margin or a CT with the approximate same battery for a 20% margin. They will focus their production on the model with a higher margin.

This is why I am betting the dual will come out first in the higher volumes.
 
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TheLastStarfighter

TheLastStarfighter

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All CTs are supposed to get the nickel version of the 4680 cells, so it shouldn’t matter what you ordered. I wouldn’t put too much faith in what was said on this podcast or that, or Twitter, or just about any media outlet. The factory is being built at a good clip and they should be ready to start building structure on what Joe Tegtmeyer calls the battery factory very soon. I bet that structure will be up inside two months, certainly by Memorial Day. They don’t even have walls on the casting area and they already have a Giga press, it’s smelting plant, a robot, and a bridge crane in it. I am as anxious as you or anyone but I don’t think it is time to sweat, yet.
they have never said what models will get what batteries.
 

Bigvbear

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they have never said what models will get what batteries.
Actually yes they did. On battery day there was a graphic put up that the CT and Semi would use high nickel versions of the 4680 cell. I find it extremely unlikely that any CT will come with the 2170 cells, it would not make sense to have a new production model use older batter tech and have different packs based on cell design. For example the Y and 3 do not use the 18650 cells the S and X use.

1615574611341.png
 
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Yakuza

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Actually yes they did. On battery day there was a graphic put up that the CT and Semi would use high nickel versions of the 4680 cell. I find it extremely unlikely that any CT will come with the 2170 cells, it would not make sense to have a new production model use older batter tech and have different packs based on cell design. For example the Y and 3 do not use the 18650 cells the S and X use.

1615574611341.png
For some reason I could see them using the LiFePo (I think that’s how it’s abbreviated) on the single motor at least. It’s far cheaper and maybe they could still get the 250+ range and a very long battery life (million miles).
 

Crissa

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For some reason I could see them using the LiFePo (I think that’s how it’s abbreviated) on the single motor at least. It’s far cheaper and maybe they could still get the 250+ range and a very long battery life (million miles).
They don't have a LiFePo supplier in the US.

-Crissa
 

EVCanuck

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Actually yes they did. On battery day there was a graphic put up that the CT and Semi would use high nickel versions of the 4680 cell. I find it extremely unlikely that any CT will come with the 2170 cells, it would not make sense to have a new production model use older batter tech and have different packs based on cell design. For example the Y and 3 do not use the 18650 cells the S and X use.

1615574611341.png
I wouldn't rely much on that presentation, Tesla might change battery plans as long as they stay within announced performance specifications for the CT
 

Crissa

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I wouldn't rely much on that presentation, Tesla might change battery plans as long as they stay within announced performance specifications for the CT
It's the one thing they've done.

It doesn't, really, matter what the chemistry in a battery is as long as it has the right resilience and fits into the space provided.

So the idea that they'll use different chemistries into different versions of a model isn't far fetched.

It's just... They haven't done it yet, and haven't done any of the preparation to do it yet.

Right now the Fe batteries are just used in the domestic Chinese models.

-Crissa
 
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TheLastStarfighter

TheLastStarfighter

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Actually yes they did. On battery day there was a graphic put up that the CT and Semi would use high nickel versions of the 4680 cell. I find it extremely unlikely that any CT will come with the 2170 cells, it would not make sense to have a new production model use older batter tech and have different packs based on cell design. For example the Y and 3 do not use the 18650 cells the S and X use.

1615574611341.png
That chart doesn't talk about the cell size, only the cathode material. We know the S, for example, obviously does not use the new larger cells, but that the Plaid+ probably will. So again, we do not know the cell sizes in the various CT models. This slide does not change that.
 
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TheLastStarfighter

TheLastStarfighter

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The Plaid+ was delayed, but we don't know if it's a reason that would also delay the tri-motor CT.

It's probably not the batteries.

-Crissa
Speculation, for sure, but I think the new batteries would be my obvious first guess. And since Elon referenced initial CT's having around 300 mile range, I would go as far as to suggest that their previous hope of having the new battery size starting manufacturing at the end of the year is being pushed back about 6 months.
 

firsttruck

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The single motor models probably will not ship until 2023/2024. By that time Tesla or a Tesla supplier might have LiFePO4 4680s. Each low cost vehicle that shipped with LiFePO4 4680s leaves more nickel and manganese for the batteries to make more high performance & high cost vehicles.

I would have not problem buying a Cybertruck with LiFePO4 4680s that got 250-300 miles range, little slower 0-60 times, and sold for lower price.
 
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