Unless a new class of buyer joins, there will not be many takers at $85k+ for a pickup

FutureBoy

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I was reading about the F150 Limited and it's history. It is basically an F150 configured with the most expensive available options for the truck and some options only available to this top trim.
It tops out at about $84k and has alway been close to 3x the price of the base model.

The Limited has never accounted for more than 1% of overall F150 sales. So very few people are willing to step up to that price point.

I know at $70k, CT3 has a good percentage of the reservations but as Elon alluded, there is a price cliff beyond which willing buyers drop off drastically.

This being a pickup, i dont see a big market for a $85k CT4 or plaid. As unique as it may be, most couldn't afford it and many who can couldn't stomach it. What are your thoughts.
So let's assume that in order to easily afford the CT4, someone will need to be at least a millionaire.

Turns out that there are currently (well 2020 statistics) 20.27 millionaires in the US.

Of those millionaires, the total wealth distribution is:

DistributionWealth~ Population
84%$1m - $2.5m17,026,800
13%$2.5m-$4m2,635,100
3%$4m-$5m608,100
4%$5m-$10m810,800
1%$10m-$25m202,700
0.1%$25m-$50m20,270
0.03%$50m-$100m6,081
0.02%$100m-$500m4,054
0.01%$500m and up2,027

So let's just be even more selective and remove the people who have a net worth less than $2.5m. That leaves us with a population of 4,289,132 people in the US worth over $2.5m. Do you think there are maybe 25% (so 1,072,283) of them that might want a CT4? Or that might have someone in their sphere of influence (kids, mistresses, boy-toy, parent, etc) who might be getting a CT4 as a present?

Let's say it's not 25%. Instead, maybe only 10% (so 428,913). Well, beyond the general population, there are also corporations. I know there is the mantra that "corporations are people" but they are not part of the above statistics.

So if there are about 400k people who can easily (and might actually) buy a CT4, what do you think the odds are that there are enough corporations out there to take up another 600k CT4's? I don't have stats for that but I'm guessing that a good number could be taken up here.

Now, what this does not take into account, is the number of people worth between $1m and $2.5m who will "stretch" to buy a CT4. If just over 1% of the 17m people here do that we have another 200k CT4's sold.

Given all that, I've made some guesses about the penetration rates. You may not agree with my guess. You might think my percentages are a bit high. OK. But I would counter with the fact that the world has never seen a vehicle like the CT. Given the security cocooning that has been happening over time in the US I'd argue that a whole new group of buyers could be found in the people who want better security that only a CT can provide. If you want to think of the CT as an armored truck, it is by far the cheapest and most drivable armored truck the world has ever seen. So looking at it from that standpoint, the CT4 is downright cheap.

But hey, this is all just prognostication. Instead of worrying about it, let's just hang out and watch things play out. In time we will see how popular the CT4 actually turns out to be.
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BillyGee

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Are you kidding? I see 80k trucks all the time. I just built this f150 on ford's website and just tried to give it comparable features to the CT and it's still only a hybrid power train.

Tesla Cybertruck Unless a new class of buyer joins, there will not be many takers at $85k+ for a pickup Screenshot_20220730-205922_Brave
 

Sirfun

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This being a pickup, i dont see a big market for a $85k CT4 or plaid. As unique as it may be, most couldn't afford it and many who can couldn't stomach it. What are your thoughts.
You were asking for thoughts.

My first thought is you were trolling. You're implying that $85K is overpriced, and that The CT is a poor choice in vehicles with your comment about many couldn't stomach it. That's what I meant by trolling.
Also, very few people would agree that the Plaid Cybertruck, (which Elon stated will be the first production Cybertruck) will be priced at $85K. That would be ludicrous. :)

Just like Cybergus said, the Plaid will eventually be the top option, of the many options available, once Tesla goes into full production. Nobody knows how many Plaids, Tesla will produce. Very few people need a truck with that much power. But as the first Cybertruck out of the gate while production gets ironed out, Tesla will sell as many as they can make for a while.
 

FutureBoy

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So let's assume that in order to easily afford the CT4, someone will need to be at least a millionaire.
<snip>
So in the process of getting data for the post I did, I came across this article. With the media fear-mongering it would not surprise me if a similar trend were to develop in the US over time.

Bulletproof on a budget: forget the limo, Brazil’s bestselling armoured car is a Corolla
The market for low-cost and second-hand bulletproof cars is booming

Tesla Cybertruck Unless a new class of buyer joins, there will not be many takers at $85k+ for a pickup 1659241630161

In this file photo taken on December 15, 2017, an employee works on the installation of bulletproof para-aramid synthetic fibre inside an armoured car in Maua, Sao Paulo. Photo: Agence France-Presse

Brazilians are as worried as ever about getting shot while driving, but have less money in a stagnant economy to spend on protecting themselves.

Enter the second-hand bulletproof car.

Whether to provide genuinely-needed protection or just to show off, the bulletproofed personal vehicle has usually been associated with the rich, but in Brazil, armoured cars are far more common than in most countries.

Industry experts consider Brazil’s US$245 million bulletproofing industry the largest in the world. But with an economy only just crawling out of recession – one per cent growth in 2017 came on the heels of a steep two year-recession – worried drivers are searching for budget options.

“I like cars, but I don’t feel comfortable spending a lot of money on one,” said lawyer Mauricio Paulo, who drives a second-hand bulletproof Volvo XZ 60. This is the 40-year-old Paulo’s fourth armoured vehicle. He got his first armoured car after being robbed while he stopped at a traffic light. The birth of his daughter 18 months ago convinced him he still needs one – while staying frugal. “I need a bulletproof car because of lack of safety,” he said. “I went for a used car because I’m going to spend less money to move around safely.”

To modify a car costs around US$13,000, pretty much like buying an additional vehicle. Going for an already used and already armoured vehicle gets the price tag down by between 10 and 40 per cent, according to varying estimates from dealers and owners.

Another big market, Mexico, bulletproofed 2,986 cars in 2017, one of the best years the industry there has had. But even in a tough climate last year, Brazil’s armouring industry still put out over 15,000.

Armoured private vehicles are especially common among the middle class in the economic hub of Sao Paulo, regardless of the fact that the mega-city is one of the safest parts in an often extremely violent country. Almost three quarters of bulletproofing work is done in Sao Paulo state, and most of the country’s 150,000 armoured vehicles are also in the state, according to the bulletproofing association Abrablin. Neither Abrablin nor the used car sellers’ body Fenauto keeps track of second-hand armoured sales. But industry experts say it is a real trend here.

“This year, the used car market is hot,” said Fabio Rovedo de Mello, director of a Sao Paulo-based bulletproofing company. “Because of the situation the country is going through, the demand for used cars has gone up.”

Sales of new cars in general plummeted to a 10-year low in 2016 in Brazil. The niche market in new armoured cars mirrored the trend, dropping 20 per cent last year, compared to 2016. “When the new market doesn’t sell, there’s higher demand for used cars, because a person can’t afford to buy a new one,” said Abrablin president Marcelo Christiansen, who also heads up a bulletproofing firm.

“Armoured cars are a lot more expensive, so the option was to go for a used car that fell within my budget,” said Eliane Wakatsuki, 39, a manager at a hydroelectric firm, who was test-driving a used Mercedes-Benz GLA 200 at a luxury bulletproofing outfit.

Even those drivers who still buy new cars and get the armouring added are looking for deals. Last year, the bestselling new car for bulletproofing was the Toyota Corolla, the cheapest and smallest that can handle armour, which can add up to 12 per cent to the vehicle’s body weight.

Owners say high crime rates drive them to seek extra security. Some international companies based in Brazil compel their expat employees to drive armoured vehicles. But whether the cars are needed is another question. Sao Paulo, Brazil’s richest state, had the lowest murder rate in the country in 2016, the last year for which comparative figures are available. There were 10.9 murders per 100,000 people against a national average of 30.3, while Sergipe state in the northeast had 64.7.

“Having a bulletproof car in Brazil is about status. People are more worried about status than they are about their own safety,” Christiansen said. “The wife gets angry, because the neighbour has one and she doesn’t, so she tells her husband: ‘I need a bulletproof car.’”

For Paulo, the armoured vehicle may bring security, but also a troubled conscience. “Those who have a bit more resources can protect themselves better,” he said. “Those who don’t can even lose their lives over something small.” “You feel bad, because people are separated by their economic power in third-world countries and that’s sad.”
 


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Alpine

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Are you kidding? I see 80k trucks all the time. I just built this f150 on ford's website and just tried to give it comparable features to the CT and it's still only a hybrid power train.

Screenshot_20220730-205922_Brave.jpg
The truck you show is exactly my point. The Limited msrp is 78-84k. And it has NEVER amounted to more than 1% of overall F150 sales. NEVER means there is a price cliff 99% of buyers of the Ford don't go over.

Im reserved for a CT3. If its going to be much over 75k at purchase time, im going to consider dropping down to CT2. iv owned exotics, but i wouldn't go that high for a truck. Im older and hopefully wiser now

It doesn't matter how nice the CT is. At a certain price, you will be challenged to find a qualified and willing buyer. Elon knows this and has stated it.

The only way i see 85k+ CTs sold at more than boutique volume is if it attracts a non typical truck buyer as stated in my thread title. I'm 30/70 on that happening.
 
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Alpine

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You were asking for thoughts.

My first thought is you were trolling. You're implying that $85K is overpriced, and that The CT is a poor choice in vehicles with your comment about many couldn't stomach it. That's what I meant by trolling.
Also, very few people would agree that the Plaid Cybertruck, (which Elon stated will be the first production Cybertruck) will be priced at $85K. That would be ludicrous. :)

Just like Cybergus said, the Plaid will eventually be the top option, of the many options available, once Tesla goes into full production. Nobody knows how many Plaids, Tesla will produce. Very few people need a truck with that much power. But as the first Cybertruck out of the gate while production gets ironed out, Tesla will sell as many as they can make for a while.
LOL. im trolling when there are threads about name your truck and whats your truck song right below this thread. Gtfo :)
 
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Firetruck41

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Anecdotally, I can't drive 10 blocks without seeing a handful of $70-90k full size SUvs and/or pickups... and a couple Tesla's. IMHO, that price point won't be too much of a hurdle out here in Suburbia.
 

charliemagpie

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A 'truck' implies many applications

Elon doesn't give away business.
Observing everything he does, most average humans flail at various junctures, but not Elon.. HE IS a machine.

Unbelievable stamina to just keep plugging away… as if he is just innovating in his first business. Most humans stop right there, but not Elon.

He just starts the next day afresh, as if he has yet to accomplish anything.
This is not normal.

Pls read this as a humble comment : reread what I just said. We are talking about an exception on Earth.

CT will be made for the majority of truck uses at the most affordable price, it will evolve.

It will be the truck to end all other trucks. It makes sense to do that, and it shall be so.

Amen or , Yiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiihaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!🏇
 
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Eye of Elon

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And wtf is trolling for comments?
I believe it's a very negative way of saying, "That's a reasonable question and thank you for keeping the forums on life support the next 9 months, while we wait for actual Cybertruck news to start coming out."
 


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Not only does it save the most common kind of damage from happening, it also saves the owners time in not having to schedule the dent removal and re-painting.
Spoken like a true non-truck owner! ;)

I've never seen a truck owner repair dents and paint scratches. In fact I see more trucks with massive dents, scrapes and bruises than not. A guy down the street "repaired" his destroyed truck bed by swapping it out for a slightly less destroyed truck bed in the wrong paint color! Slow clap.

Joking aside, my point is that truck owners who repair dents and scratches exist.. but they are most certainly not the majority of truck owners... hence not a great example of cost savings in a common ownership lifetime of a truck.
 
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Tinker71

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I was reading about the F150 Limited and it's history. It is basically an F150 configured with the most expensive available options for the truck and some options only available to this top trim.
It tops out at about $84k and has alway been close to 3x the price of the base model.

The Limited has never accounted for more than 1% of overall F150 sales. So very few people are willing to step up to that price point.

I know at $70k, CT3 has a good percentage of the reservations but as Elon alluded, there is a price cliff beyond which willing buyers drop off drastically.

This being a pickup, i dont see a big market for a $85k CT4 or plaid. As unique as it may be, most couldn't afford it and many who can couldn't stomach it. What are your thoughts.
I agree. Tesla needs to keep their top trim below $80k for mass market penetration. The problem is the CT3 is too good. It exceeds the range of all Tesla's, with seating for 6, AWD and wicked acceleration plus off-road and towing capabilities. Why would you buy any other Tesla that cost more. Unless your really want a sedan/small SUV.

Tesla will be battery constrained for the next several years. This is a major problem for CT3 reservation holders.

Tesla Cybertruck Unless a new class of buyer joins, there will not be many takers at $85k+ for a pickup 1659272515661
 

CyberGus

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I can't give you stats but they're common enough to not get a 'gosh' response.
"Selection bias is the bias introduced by the selection of individuals, groups, or data for analysis in such a way that proper randomization is not achieved."
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Selection_bias

In Austin I can't go anywhere without seeing multiple Teslas, leading me to the belief they are quite popular. However, I recently spent some time in upstate NY, where a Tesla sighting was a notable event, making them very rare.

While the act of gazing out your window can provide interesting information, it is only 1 data point that cannot logically be extrapolated to everything else.
 
 




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