FutureBoy
Well-known member
- First Name
- Reginald
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- Kirkland WA USA
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- Financial Advisor
So let's assume that in order to easily afford the CT4, someone will need to be at least a millionaire.I was reading about the F150 Limited and it's history. It is basically an F150 configured with the most expensive available options for the truck and some options only available to this top trim.
It tops out at about $84k and has alway been close to 3x the price of the base model.
The Limited has never accounted for more than 1% of overall F150 sales. So very few people are willing to step up to that price point.
I know at $70k, CT3 has a good percentage of the reservations but as Elon alluded, there is a price cliff beyond which willing buyers drop off drastically.
This being a pickup, i dont see a big market for a $85k CT4 or plaid. As unique as it may be, most couldn't afford it and many who can couldn't stomach it. What are your thoughts.
Turns out that there are currently (well 2020 statistics) 20.27 millionaires in the US.
Of those millionaires, the total wealth distribution is:
Distribution | Wealth | ~ Population |
---|---|---|
84% | $1m - $2.5m | 17,026,800 |
13% | $2.5m-$4m | 2,635,100 |
3% | $4m-$5m | 608,100 |
4% | $5m-$10m | 810,800 |
1% | $10m-$25m | 202,700 |
0.1% | $25m-$50m | 20,270 |
0.03% | $50m-$100m | 6,081 |
0.02% | $100m-$500m | 4,054 |
0.01% | $500m and up | 2,027 |
So let's just be even more selective and remove the people who have a net worth less than $2.5m. That leaves us with a population of 4,289,132 people in the US worth over $2.5m. Do you think there are maybe 25% (so 1,072,283) of them that might want a CT4? Or that might have someone in their sphere of influence (kids, mistresses, boy-toy, parent, etc) who might be getting a CT4 as a present?
Let's say it's not 25%. Instead, maybe only 10% (so 428,913). Well, beyond the general population, there are also corporations. I know there is the mantra that "corporations are people" but they are not part of the above statistics.
So if there are about 400k people who can easily (and might actually) buy a CT4, what do you think the odds are that there are enough corporations out there to take up another 600k CT4's? I don't have stats for that but I'm guessing that a good number could be taken up here.
Now, what this does not take into account, is the number of people worth between $1m and $2.5m who will "stretch" to buy a CT4. If just over 1% of the 17m people here do that we have another 200k CT4's sold.
Given all that, I've made some guesses about the penetration rates. You may not agree with my guess. You might think my percentages are a bit high. OK. But I would counter with the fact that the world has never seen a vehicle like the CT. Given the security cocooning that has been happening over time in the US I'd argue that a whole new group of buyers could be found in the people who want better security that only a CT can provide. If you want to think of the CT as an armored truck, it is by far the cheapest and most drivable armored truck the world has ever seen. So looking at it from that standpoint, the CT4 is downright cheap.
But hey, this is all just prognostication. Instead of worrying about it, let's just hang out and watch things play out. In time we will see how popular the CT4 actually turns out to be.
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