Unless a new class of buyer joins, there will not be many takers at $85k+ for a pickup

[jerhenderson]

"Selection bias is the bias introduced by the selection of individuals, groups, or data for analysis in such a way that proper randomization is not achieved."
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Selection_bias

In Austin I can't go anywhere without seeing multiple Teslas, leading me to the belief they are quite popular. However, I recently spent some time in upstate NY, where a Tesla sighting was a notable event, making them very rare.

While the act of gazing out your window can provide interesting information, it is only 1 data point that cannot logically be extrapolated to everything else.

I get your point, but trucks are very common here and contractors tend not to get cheap work trucks here... they want comfort and features = $$$$

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[jerhenderson]

I don't have funds, I just don't care about my credit score

that'll upset banks haha

 

[Crissa]

I get your point, but trucks are very common here and contractors tend not to get cheap work trucks here... they want comfort and features = $$$$

Not arguing that trucks haven't gotten frilly lately.

But it's been well demonstrated that a 10k increase in price can drop the potential market by 90%.

Even with the expectation of inflation raising what buyers are willing to pay (not what they can pay), there are a bunch of trucks all available at a high price, but less buyers willing to jump for them. If someone could buy an $80+k truck, they probably will more easily go for the Rivian, Ford, or Silverado.

How many stay for Cybertruck features? Probably an equal amount, honestly.

But it's still not the same mass market appeal.

-Crissa

 

[rr6013]

Just like Cybergus said, the Plaid will eventually be the top option, of the many options available, once Tesla goes into full production. Nobody knows how many Plaids, Tesla will produce. Very few people need a truck with that much power. But as the first Cybertruck out of the gate while production gets ironed out, Tesla will sell as many as they can make for a while

Money is mute…later, read on.

A startification occurred since Cybertruck was announced. The pickup has gone from 4x4, RWD,AWD,4WD to 4AD. Cybertruck is the later 4 axel drive variant meaning 4 motors-4 drive axels.
Rivian 4WD; 4 motors-4 wheel drive hasn’t won the BEV 4x4 technology 4X gambit yet. BUT did tip the worlds #1 EV maker’s Tri-motor over for the 4X bragging rights at stake.

The pickup long ago separated man from its rational thinking side of its brain. Whether $40k, 85k, 100k…2000k a hyper pickup wouldn’t stop the motivated aficionado.
Body Matt Rimac mods i.e. rear wheel arch scoop treatment, Porsche aero vented spoiler flip up and front Air Grille louvers to channel flow around sides and out the rear would “advance” Cybertruck into the statusphere (sp)intentional.

Tesla innovates a new adaptive track axel technology for wheels and tyres that will squeeze inward and outward ‘cuz AI keeping balanced Qd Performance and Whr Efficiency ”hyper” Cybertruck attracting upgraders and providing maximum Tesla Safety.

#1 reason d’être that Cybertruck hooked me, was cyber. There isn’t a limit to which cyber can enbrace. Fixtures in contemporary automotive stamped design dissolve under cyber treatment. The whole truck is open.

 

[Cybertruckee]

I have a reservation for F150 Lightning Lariat that will hit $70K for the 300-mile range I want.

But at that price, I'm still hesitating and told my dealer to put me at the end of the queue.

 

[HaulingAss]

Spoken like a true non-truck owner!

I've never seen a truck owner repair dents and paint scratches. In fact I see more trucks with massive dents, scrapes and bruises than not. A guy down the street "repaired" his destroyed truck bed by swapping it out for a slightly less destroyed truck bed in the wrong paint color! Slow clap.

Joking aside, my point is that truck owners who repair dents and scratches exist.. but they are most certainly not the majority of truck owners... hence not a great example of cost savings in a common ownership lifetime of a truck.

I've been a truck owner most of my adult life (current truck is a 2010 F-150).

Truck owners are different nowdays from the truck owners I've known for decades. Trucks sell in huge volumes and farmers/fisherman/carpenters make up only a small percentage of all truck owners. Drive through any American suburb and you will see shiny, newer trucks all over the place. You had better bet these get repaired when they get dented and scratched! Just ask any bodyshop!

My brother is a Ram 2500 owner. The first year he owned it he was at the supermarket with his wife, and they watched in horror as a shopping cart was blown by a strong gust of wind right into his pride and joy. The empty cart left a nasty dent about the size of an apricot behind the door of the cab. He's the kind of truck owner that doesn't fix minor damage. But now it's a much uglier rust spot, it makes his truck look like an old beater and everytime I mention it, he winces. You had better believe even the kind of truck owner who doesn't repair dents and scratches is going to appreciate just how damage resistant the Cybertruck's exterior shell is. The Cybertruck will be the only truck that can honestly be called "tough" without having to pretend. Legacy trucks are not "tough", they are soft and fragile. Seriously, they can't even take on a grocery cart. The cart was undamaged.

 

[CyberGus]

In Texas trucks are everywhere. Everyone has a truck. The parking lots of all these high-tech companies are full of shiny trucks that have never ever gone off-road or moved cargo bigger than a case of beer.

I literally roll my eyes when I read someone postulating what "most truck owners" will do, when that's a wide and varied demographic. And then I punch myself if the throat to keep from screaming when I hear "yeah but those are not real truck owners".

 

[HaulingAss]

The truck you show is exactly my point. The Limited msrp is 78-84k. And it has NEVER amounted to more than 1% of overall F150 sales. NEVER means there is a price cliff 99% of buyers of the Ford don't go over.

Im reserved for a CT3. If its going to be much over 75k at purchase time, im going to consider dropping down to CT2. iv owned exotics, but i wouldn't go that high for a truck. Im older and hopefully wiser now

It doesn't matter how nice the CT is. At a certain price, you will be challenged to find a qualified and willing buyer. Elon knows this and has stated it.

The only way i see 85k+ CTs sold at more than boutique volume is if it attracts a non typical truck buyer as stated in my thread title. I'm 30/70 on that happening.

Most Cybertrucks will be sold for well under $85K so I guess I don't see what you are arguing.

 

[ED_SFO]

Didn't see anyone mention we do have a direct comparison on what are the real world ev truck owners are paying, the rivian R1T. Most of those trucks are over $80k otd. And they have about 70k reservations before the price hike. We don't know the conversion rate but I do know they will sell every single one they make regardless of configuration. I think Tesla can sell 100k $80k CT over a 2 year period easily.

 

[HaulingAss]

I agree. Tesla needs to keep their top trim below $80k for mass market penetration. The problem is the CT3 is too good. It exceeds the range of all Tesla's, with seating for 6, AWD and wicked acceleration plus off-road and towing capabilities. Why would you buy any other Tesla that cost more. Unless your really want a sedan/small SUV.

Tesla will be battery constrained for the next several years. This is a major problem for CT3 reservation holders.

Tesla needs to keep their top trim below $80K for mass market penetration? What a uninformed thing to say!

The price of the top trim never dictates how many lower and mid trims a maker sells. Your table doesn't support that either because the F-150 is the best selling truck in the U.S. and the top trim easily climbs well above 80K once you add four-wheel drive (which most buyers do).

Can we try to keep the FUD real?

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Are you kidding? I see 80k trucks all the time. I just built this f150 on ford's website and just tried to give it comparable features to the CT and it's still only a hybrid power train.

I don’t think that many people realize how expensive cars and trucks have gotten. Yes, you can buy a pickup for less but not a full-sized pickup. My last car was a Lexus RX hybrid and when I was considering a Model Y I did a feature and price comparison to a new RX and they were very similar in price. But Elon is right that there is a price above which people won’t buy the truck.

 

[Crissa]

In Texas trucks are everywhere. Everyone has a truck. The parking lots of all these high-tech companies are full of shiny trucks that have never ever gone off-road or moved cargo bigger than a case of beer.

I literally roll my eyes when I read someone postulating what "most truck owners" will do, when that's a wide and varied demographic. And then I punch myself if the throat to keep from screaming when I hear "yeah but those are not real truck owners".

My spouse likes to tear into them as not being 'a real redneck' because that was reserved for like our grandparents and fathers who worked bent over in the field.

-Crissa

 

[Throwcomputer]

I've been a truck owner most of my adult life (current truck is a 2010 F-150).

Truck owners are different nowdays from the truck owners I've known for decades. Trucks sell in huge volumes and farmers/fisherman/carpenters make up only a small percentage of all truck owners. Drive through any American suburb and you will see shiny, newer trucks all over the place. You had better bet these get repaired when they get dented and scratched! Just ask any bodyshop!

My brother is a Ram 2500 owner. The first year he owned it he was at the supermarket with his wife, and they watched in horror as a shopping cart was blown by a strong gust of wind right into his pride and joy. The empty cart left a nasty dent about the size of an apricot behind the door of the cab. He's the kind of truck owner that doesn't fix minor damage. But now it's a much uglier rust spot, it makes his truck look like an old beater and everytime I mention it, he winces. You had better believe even the kind of truck owner who doesn't repair dents and scratches is going to appreciate just how damage resistant the Cybertruck's exterior shell is. The Cybertruck will be the only truck that can honestly be called "tough" without having to pretend. Legacy trucks are not "tough", they are soft and fragile. Seriously, they can't even take on a grocery cart. The cart was undamaged.

I didnt disagree that the cybertruck will be so much more durable and greatly appreciated so.. but I don't think the vast majority are of the second truck owner type that you describe. Some places yes, but most places I've spent time in no. Florida is one of the exceptions where everyone and their brother has a shiny new massive truck which they have lifted and installed massive tires on for their own ego. I won't dispute this second group of truck owners seems to be growing exponentially.. mainly cause trucks are now a lifestyle choice for so many instead of a utility choice.

My 2007 ridgeline wears the peeling clear coat on the hood, passenger side body panel dangling off the wheel well and dented tailgate with pride (i've kept the interior like new as needed by doing my own repairs to the headliner and various other broken items over the years cause that is what is important to me.. not what people see)!

 

[CyberGus]

My spouse likes to tear into them as not being 'a real redneck' because that was reserved for like our grandparents and fathers who worked bent over in the field.

-Crissa

all necks matter

 

[Halemarine]

Not arguing that trucks haven't gotten frilly lately.

But it's been well demonstrated that a 10k increase in price can drop the potential market by 90%.

Even with the expectation of inflation raising what buyers are willing to pay (not what they can pay), there are a bunch of trucks all available at a high price, but less buyers willing to jump for them. If someone could buy an $80+k truck, they probably will more easily go for the Rivian, Ford, or Silverado.

How many stay for Cybertruck features? Probably an equal amount, honestly.

But it's still not the same mass market appeal.

-Crissa

I agree with you. I have many family and friends that are either not willing to purchase an EV or are put off by design of the Cybertruck.
Personally I love both EV's and the brash look of the CT!
Being a Tesla owner for nearly 2 years, I don't believe that is any other vehicle I would purchase!

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