Update from Elon: Cybertruck production starting late 2022 and volume production in 2023

[alan auerbach]

SOURCE Sawyer Merritt on twitter:

The Cybertruck has been delayed to late 2022. "Production starting late 2022 and volume production in 2023". This is per a company wide conference call with employees.​

[Admin addendum: Elon did add this about the Cybertruck: "It will be a special project. Like a glitch in the Matrix. Like if Neo had a car."]









So there you have it folks. Volume production will begin in 2023. If you are 100,000 and above for your place in line, start thinking 2024, or later, the further down the list your spot is.

Canadian deliveries maybe in 2024 then? At my age, I have to forget the whole thing. Too bad.

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[Wolfhausen]

I believed it was inevitable so it does not bother me one bit. I am sure it will be very impressive once I take delivery. I bought a model Y to hold me over and still have my F150 so I'm in no rush.

 

[Macgreiner]

Not a huge surprise - but not a good one either. Oh well as others have stated - more time to save up.

 

[Ogre]

I think its absolutely ridiculous at this point. Who knows how long they've been working on it prior to the 2019 unveil. Now in 2021 Q2 they just finished basic architecture. Thats 3 years too long. Then to push it back until late 2022 or almost 2023? All exterior and structural details should have been done by now. The gigapress was ordered march 2021 when it should have been ordered in 2020 knowing it was going to be a 1st time machine that size was going to be created. Especially with potential problems. I think they're just trying to push the envelope so much and engineers just can't keep up. So many new departments; Semi, roadster, cybertruck, now robot.

The Gigapress is being installed *right now*. It's likely to be ready by year end, certainly well before end of year 2022 and will probably idle for quite some time. The Giga is not the problem. The design is not the problem.

The hold up is the 4680 battery process. They had the process working at smaller scale, but when they tried to scale up production of the process, everything went sideways. This isn't really something they could have predicted until they started to scale production.

Honestly this is more concerning than late equipment or late designs because it means they might have to go back to the design board on a very fundamental component of the truck.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

The Gigapress is being installed *right now*. It's likely to be ready by year end, certainly well before end of year 2022 and will probably idle for quite some time. The Giga is not the problem. The design is not the problem.

The hold up is the 4680 battery process. They had the process working at smaller scale, but when they tried to scale up production of the process, everything went sideways. This isn't really something they could have predicted until they started to scale production.

Honestly this is more concerning than late equipment or late designs because it means they might have to go back to the design board on a very fundamental component of the truck.

I wish I could agree with you but I don't. The recent news that they have 70-80% cell viability suggests that the 4680 cells will not be the holdup, and the cell manufacturing facility at GigaAustin is coming along really well so I don't think that is the holdup. What I am thinking is that Elon said they will be putting HW4 into the CT and the global chip shortage is going to impact that whole chain and logistics. They could make a CT with HW3 but they probably don't want to and they aren't really concerned about when they start production (unlike us - or me at least).

 

[David R Kirkpatrick]

Yes…just in time for 2680s, microchips and new computer os…

 

[TruckElectric]

The hold up is the 4680 battery process.

And the semiconductor shortage. HW4.0 may also be a bit delayed because of the chip shortage.

 

[TK0384]

I'm cool with waiting until 2023, that'll give me more time to save for it. More time to save means I'm even more likely to upgrade from C2 to C3.

 

[SpaceDoc]

the problem here is that Rivian is almost ready and GM and Ford will be before Tesla. people in need of a truck and still puzzled about CT's appearance will go for another brand at this point. this is no good news for us Tesla shareholders. As a future CT owner, however, I am ok with any delay that makes CT better.

All of those vehicles are vaporware until one actually hits the street and is available to buy. Hasn't happened yet for any of them. They are all constrained by battery supply issues. This may actually work to Tesla's advantage. Establishing a production line for a completely new vehicle is likely no small task, and it seems that as the date is firming up, Tesla has a better grip on it now.

 

[Ogre]

The recent news that they have 70-80% cell viability suggests that the 4680 cells will not be the holdup

This is two different things. They are getting 70-80% cell viability, out of a process which they haven't been able to scale up.

They could make a CT with HW3 but they probably don't want to and they aren't really concerned about when they start production

I'm pretty sure they are quite concerned about when they start production. Even setting aside the potential loss of market presence to competitors. They have billions of dollars of equipment sitting idle until they get this process online.

They have a significant technical advantage over the rest of the industry. The 4680 will extend that lead. Every day it's delayed eats into that advantage a little bit.

 

[JeffnReno]

I hope by this time, most have learned to live without that $100 they put down for a reservation and not give up hope. I'm still undecided as to choose the Model Y or the CT so will wait with our M3 working just fine until I actually have to make that choice. At this point, I'm wondering which will come first robotaxis or the CT since even getting to FSD beta wide release is painfully pushing back over and over again...

 

[Ogre]

And the semiconductor shortage. HW4.0 may also be a bit delayed because of the chip shortage.

If we start seeing the Model Y shipping with the structural battery or the semi rolls out the door then we'll know this is the case.

 

[CyberT]

I think its absolutely ridiculous at this point. Who knows how long they've been working on it prior to the 2019 unveil. Now in 2021 Q2 they just finished basic architecture. Thats 3 years too long. Then to push it back until late 2022 or almost 2023? All exterior and structural details should have been done by now. The gigapress was ordered march 2021 when it should have been ordered in 2020 knowing it was going to be a 1st time machine that size was going to be created. Especially with potential problems. I think they're just trying to push the envelope so much and engineers just can't keep up. So many new departments; Semi, roadster, cybertruck, now robot.

Just wanted to point something out that a lot of others know and forget or never knew in the first place. With Tesla vertical integrating more and more of their components and processes of manufacturing they are left to "Building the Machine that makes the Machine" since what they are trying to accomplish has never been done before. In the case of the Giga Press, there was no need for an 8k ton press before the CT. IDRA is tasked to build the machine first (it's bigger than most homes). And that is just a part of what it will take to manufacture the CT.

If Tesla was building an electric truck like the Lighting or R1T which is built with traditional materials and processes then I too would be upset over the delay but the CyberTruck will blow away these other trucks, and that is exactly what I want to purchase with my money!

The Semi and Roadster are ready for production, just waiting for 4680s to scale. The Semi uses likely 5 times the batteries of what the Model Y uses. Once the backlog of Model Ys being manufactured from Austin "slows" then we will see the Semi start production. As for the Roadster, What is the point of even releasing it? During the reveal, Elon said the purpose was to show that an electric car can beat the performance of any hypercar. Plaid already does that for $100k less and you can use it as a daily driver that seats 5. The roadster is way on the back burner and will be the desert in Tesla's lineup after 4680s are fully ramped up.

 

[SpaceDoc]

You gloss over the fact that he has *delivered* on most of the revolutionary tech that he has proposed. Sure there are delays along the way, but these things are not easy. And it's pretty simplistic to ascribe delays to him as an individual. There are literal armies of the best and brightest engineers working on all of these things. Your armchair quarterbacking aside, his companies have singlehandedly upended whole industries... the EV/automotive market, space launch market, and battery storage market.

 

[TruckElectric]

They have a significant technical advantage over the rest of the industry. The 4680 will extend that lead. Every day it's delayed eats into that advantage a little bit.

Jeff Bezos loves the delays. Rivian is mimicking Tesla but at a faster pace, or so it seems.

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