SpaceDoc

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This is where a lot of owners are at who are potential EV Truck buyers (My F150 is not that tired at 75,000 miles, so I can wait a little longer but not 2 more years....)

How long will people wait before just going back and buying another ICE pickup?
Or maybe buying a Ford Lightning or Rivian?

There is a lot at stake with the truck market. It represents a huge slice of vehicle sales. The Rivian is projected to only make a modest # of R1Ts and R1Ss over the next 24 months. Ditto Ford with the Lightning. The demand in 2023 for EV trucks is bound to be huge. But who will have any to sell?
good points.
Tesla is the only one with experience at ramping up EV production to scale. So my bet would be on them to deliver more trucks in 2023/24.
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SpaceDoc

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It’s not about whether individual action can make a difference, but realising Humanity has always been the all-powerful impact – individual choice in collective behavior trips a ripple into tidal wave proportions.
yes, as realized by legislation and government intervention. Same as it ever was.
 

SpaceDoc

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So Cal. firestorms taught that residential structures with closed eaves, metal roofing(read fire retardant) and non-flamable siding(i.e.cemeticious, metal, and which minimize glass % wall areas can survive. California fires are fast wind driven firestorms that blow right through picture windows out the other side of a house.

So Cal fires ride atop tree canopy to tree canopy burning brush as it travels. Wind does the damage, defensible space is 30’ but once you’ve seen wind-driven fire, 100’ emotionally feels like a safer margin.

If the home abuts rock cliff formation two scenarios will be determined by terrain. A wall that fire storms meets head-on creates a fireplace for your home-as-tinder.

If your home rests at the toe of a steep slope, wind-driven fire approaching from the top of slope will cascade down the path of least resistance and white-ash intensify in gulches. Hopeless is the home enveloped in a gulch. Otherwise, chances it could sweep across top of the home are real that it must withstand 100% fire intensity.

Best scenario 30mph winds move fire quickly and the home is skipped over.
Point of order.
Fires travel uphill mostly and most destructively, due to convection. Fires creep slowly downhill.
+90% of fire fighters ever killed in a forest fire were overrun by fires moving uphill faster than they could run.
 

Ogre

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Point of order.
Fires travel uphill mostly and most destructively, due to convection. Fires creep slowly downhill.
+90% of fire fighters ever killed in a forest fire were overrun by fires moving uphill faster than they could run.
This is 100% true on a micro-scale. But once you get past a certain size, fires travel windward regardless of slope. After a certain size, the updraft pushes increasingly bigger embers skyward which then rain onto the downwind area. Then people die because they get trapped by fires which have spread downwind faster than they were able to evacuate.

I think this latter effect has caused more deaths recently. Not necessarily fire fighters, but evacuees. Lots of people have been killed on the road trying to escape the fires.
 
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intimidator

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Wouldn’t surprise me if Tesla produces more electric pickups by the end of 2023 than Ford or Rivian.
Quite possible since Ford already has said they will only build 55,000 Lightnings in 2023
Also I think Rivian is only projected to build about 50,000 R1T and R1S in 2023.

So, yeah, Tesla should be able to build over 50,000 Cybertrucks in 2023. If not, that means 1 million reservation holders are going to have to wait until 2024 to have a chance at getting their trucks. Including me. I don't want to wait until 2024.
 


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90% of fire fighters ever killed in a forest fire were overrun by fires moving uphill faster than they could run.
Cuyamaca Julian fire in Laguna Mtns~1994 firefighters ran out of room to run at top of knoll, tepeed emergency shelters and were incinerated. The ground was burnt white—to-dust. I’d always wondered how the knoll top betrayed their shelter-in-place last resort.

Thanks!

Edit: Fire name change
 
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SpaceDoc

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This is 100% true on a micro-scale. But once you get past a certain size, fires travel windward regardless of slope. After a certain size, the updraft pushes increasingly bigger embers skyward which then rain onto the downwind area. Then people die because they get trapped by fires which have spread downwind faster than they were able to evacuate.

I think this latter effect has caused more deaths recently. Not necessarily fire fighters, but evacuees. Lots of people have been killed on the road trying to escape the fires.
Its even more true on a larger scale. more heat equals more convection, higher wind speed, and faster upslope burn. downslope burn rate is in fact limited by that same convection.

People dying on roads is mostly a different scenario. They are overcome by smoke.

Anyhow, that’s my two bits. I used to earn some pocket change fighting fires for the US Forest Service when I was in college. I don’t think the physics of fires has changed since then, other than fires becoming more epic with climate change.

Here’s a great video to explain it… https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/video/why-fires-move-faster-up-a-hill-than-down/
 

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Its even more true on a larger scale. more heat equals more convection, higher wind speed, and faster upslope burn. downslope burn rate is in fact limited by that same convection.

People dying on roads is mostly a different scenario. They are overcome by smoke.

Anyhow, that’s my two bits. I used to earn some pocket change fighting fires for the US Forest Service when I was in college. I don’t think the physics of fires has changed since then, other than fires becoming more epic with climate change.

Here’s a great video to explain it… https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/video/why-fires-move-faster-up-a-hill-than-down/
I think I was talking orthogonal to the discussion. Just disregard.
 

SpaceDoc

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I think I was talking orthogonal to the discussion. Just disregard.
No worries. ?

Watch the video, it really is pretty cool. I might go watch the whole episode!
 

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The Cybertruck reveal was Nov. 21 2019. The night I put down my deposit. I remember it clearly, almost as if it were yesterday.
I put my deposit down as Elon said reservations are open. Added it to my account within 10mins of the reveal… but alas I won’t be one of the first 100,000 to get one as it won’t arrive in Australia for at least 18months post US release… we still don’t have Model Y here.
 


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I put my deposit down as Elon said reservations are open. Added it to my account within 10mins of the reveal… but alas I won’t be one of the first 100,000 to get one as it won’t arrive in Australia for at least 18months post US release… we still don’t have Model Y here.
With right hand drive model Y’s coming to the U.K. next year fingers crossed other countries with right hand drive will also have them.
 

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I put my deposit down as Elon said reservations are open. Added it to my account within 10mins of the reveal… but alas I won’t be one of the first 100,000 to get one as it won’t arrive in Australia for at least 18months post US release… we still don’t have Model Y here.
Not only will you be put backwards in line, but also your price is out of this world!
 

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Not only will you be put backwards in line, but also your price is out of this world!
It’s all relative, Australia average income is AU$90k. So AU$70-80k on a truck isn’t too much of a stretch. Most Cybertruck in Australia will like sell for AU$110k

The luxury car taxes that were implemented in an effort to protect our failed automotive manufacturers might be used as an EV incentive soon . Hopefully that will provide a 20% discount for every dollar over $75k in comparison to ICE vehicles.

But also the Cybertruck having over 1 ton carrying capacity many people will be able to use it as an instant assess write off.
 

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Quite possible since Ford already has said they will only build 55,000 Lightnings in 2023
Also I think Rivian is only projected to build about 50,000 R1T and R1S in 2023.

So, yeah, Tesla should be able to build over 50,000 Cybertrucks in 2023. If not, that means 1 million reservation holders are going to have to wait until 2024 to have a chance at getting their trucks. Including me. I don't want to wait until 2024.
If I had to guess, and it's just a guess... I would think that Tesla will build maybe 150,000 Cybertrucks in 2023 and 350,000 in 2024 and 450,000 in 2025. Which means I'll get mine probably sometime in 2025.
 
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intimidator

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If I had to guess, and it's just a guess... I would think that Tesla will build maybe 150,000 Cybertrucks in 2023 and 350,000 in 2024 and 450,000 in 2025. Which means I'll get mine probably sometime in 2025.
Your guess is as good as any.

Although, I am getting concerned with the lack of progress on both the development of the Cybertruck (the Alpha version recently seen testing on the airport runway in Cali should have happened a year ago....) and the fact GigaTexas is not done yet. GigaTexas was "supposed" to be finished June 30th according to Tesla's original timeline.

They might still spit out some test runs for the Model Y in December, but they are clearly behind. That will push back the build out of the CyberTruck production line at Austin. It also appears there is a lag in the 4680 battery manufacturing. Combine those 3 things and it looks like 2023 is when the CT should actually begin to ramp. Not sure if that means 50K the first year, or 150,000. Either way a lot of people are left waiting for their CT until 2024 and 2025. It was announced in 2019.
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