Wall Street analysts estimate 65K Cybertruck sales in 2025, but Troy expects 21K

[scottf200]

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Troy Teslike - Wall Street analysts estimate 65,000 Cybertruck sales in 2025, but I expect 21,000 units.

Deliveries were 34,426 units in 2024. However, this included many buyers who had been waiting since the reveal event in November 2019.

The order backlog is gone. Tesla ended 2024 with 10,600 unsold Cybertrucks because of too much production and low demand. The backlog dropped to zero on November 24, 2024, when Tesla's order page in the US showed that customers could order and take delivery of a Cybertruck on the same day. See:

A cheaper Cybertruck this year is unlikely because the Cybertruck is not profitable. A cheaper version would make things worse.
10:40 AM · Feb 2, 2025

the Cybertruck was profitable in Q3 2024, but only for that quarter because of two reasons:

1. Tesla was delivering only the Foundation Series at the time which had a $20,000 higher selling price.

2. Tesla saved up performance version deliveries from earlier quarters and delivered them all at once in Q3 2024.

See
10:55 AM · Feb 2, 2025

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[YDR37]

Troy Teslike - Wall Street analysts estimate 65,000 Cybertruck sales in 2025, but I expect 21,000 units.

Interesting. By Troy's own estimates, Tesla delivered 11,744 Cybertrucks in 4Q 2024 (including Canada). If Tesla sold nearly 12,000 during the most recent quarter, then why does he only expect 21,000 for the entire year of 2025?

The answer: Troy thinks that most of the 4Q 2024 sales were fueled by pent-up demand for the non-Foundation Series, which was introduced at that time. He thinks that the "sustainable" demand for the CT is much lower; his current estimate is only about 5,500 per quarter.

If Troy is correct, then we should see a major drop in CT sales for 1Q 2025. We will find out, one way or the other, in about 90 days, when 1Q 2025 sales data become available.

 

[YDR37]

Another interesting claim from Troy:

A cheaper Cybertruck this year is unlikely because the Cybertruck is not profitable. A cheaper version would make things worse.

Tesla did announce that the CT was profitable in 3Q 2024 -- but that was when all sales were Foundation Series, at $100,000 and up. Troy doesn't think that the non-FS is profitable, and he believes that lower CT pricing is therefore unlikely. This would be consistent with a couple other points:

(1) Tesla is discounting 2024 non-FS CTs in inventory, but the discounts don't seem significant -- like $78,390 vs $79,990 on a non-FS AWD.

(2) Tesla's new VIN decoder for the 2025 model year has codes for dual-motor and tri-motor versions, but nothing for single-motor. So the less expensive single-motor RWD version does not appear to be forthcoming, at least not in 2025.

Seems like the one thing that could definitely make the Cybertruck less expensive and increase sales would be the $7,500 EV tax credit. But the tax credit is not currently available for the 2025 CT (for whatever reason), and no one will be surprised if the Trump administration kills it entirely.

 

[Cybertruck2024]

I was just at my local auto show, I was looking at the trucks from other manufacturers. A lot of people on here mention how many trucks cost $80k, which certainly is a fact. However, F-150 starts around $40k at base specs, so do other similar entry level trucks from other manufacturers. Around my town, the vast majority of the trucks I see are the $40k-ish trims, not the $80k trims.

I genuinely think they could still sell 100k+ CTs a year if they could get the price down to $55k. If they can't, this vehicle is priced in line with premium trucks and they likely will sell the same amount as comparably priced vehicles. Sure I see some Raptors, but not a lot of them.

There's a reason the Model Y is the best selling vehicle and not the Model X. That reason is price. The X has more features, but most people care about value for money. I don't doubt Cybertruck is a 30k per year seller at the current pricing. Everyone wants a Model S Plaid, but most people are driving a Model 3.

The last Tesla investor call was really telling. The value of the CT was the tech they will bring to other models, not the money the CT is making on its own. It's actually kinda cool that a concept car was put out to market, I wonder why no one else has tried this before. I assume Ram EV in concept form at $120k would've been a rich person toy to show off around town. They already made it, why not make a few bucks putting it to market and pricing it above cost (i.e. - Foundation Series)? For this, I thank Tesla for giving me a chance to drive this wild vehicle that no other company would have the guts to release.

 

[Mini2nut]

I feel 38k units in 2024 may be the peak year for Cybertruck sales if the MSRP's remain the same.

 

[SCTesla]

I'd guess 40k. While year 1 has the most demand for most vehicles, I think Tesla will get creative with incentives and sell around 40k.

21k is too low, IMO. I think 65k is more reasonable than 21k.

 

[Sjohnson20]

Obviously price is a huge factor right now and it remains to be seen if they can get that down lower. If they just decide they can't then it will remain a niche product like the S and X.

We also just don't know how big the EV truck market actually is. So far it seems small.

 

[tingmo13]

it's time Tesla needs to bring a midsize Cybertruck.

 

[YDR37]

Obviously price is a huge factor right now and it remains to be seen if they can get that down lower. If they just decide they can't then it will remain a niche product like the S and X.

In recent years, the Model S and Model X have each sold around 15,000 to 25,000 units in the US/Canada. So when Troy says that he expects the Cybertruck to sell around 21,000 units in 2025, basically this means that he expects it to sell roughly the same as the S and X. Which doesn't seem crazy, given that the CT is priced roughly the same as the S and X.

 

[Speedr]

In the last few months, the AWD literally went down 27.5%! From $100,000 to $72,500 with tax credit (the last just recently happened). I think we don't know WHAT the demand is at that price point!

Also, the Model 3 was supposed to decline in sales once the backlog was exhausted...we all know how that went!

 

[scottf200]

Seems like the one thing that could definitely make the Cybertruck less expensive and increase sales would be the $7,500 EV tax credit. But the tax credit is not currently available for the 2025 CT (for whatever reason), and no one will be surprised if the Trump administration kills it entirely.

In the last few months, the AWD literally went down 27.5%! From $100,000 to $72,500 with tax credit (the last just recently happened). I think we don't know WHAT the demand is at that price point!

Also, the Model 3 was supposed to decline in sales once the backlog was exhausted...we all know how that went!

@Speedr , note the first quote above where the tax credit has yet to be seen and Tesla is tightlipped about it (maybe to get rid of non-qualifying inventory ... who knows).

I don't think you can compare the CT to the TM3 by any means. The CT is *significantly* more controversial in looks, upkeep, in being unique (TM3 is like all small sized sedans), and now politics + associations. I don't see a comparison to the 3, Y, or S. Maybe X in some of it's look*at*me notes.

 

[Cyber Bear]

In recent years, the Model S and Model X have each sold around 15,000 to 25,000 units in the US/Canada. So when Troy says that he expects the Cybertruck to sell around 21,000 units in 2025, basically this means that he expects it to sell roughly the same as the S and X. Which doesn't seem crazy, given that the CT is priced roughly the same as the S and X.

I keep seeing comments from some existing FS owners that appear to suggest the hope that a "cheaper" version of the CT is produced at what would be a greatly lower price. What would be wrong if the CT remained a higher "premium" product on the Tesla portfolio that Tesla could still make a fair profit margin from it? Perhaps I'm missing some key issue with going that route?

 

[Coagulation]

Unless these are widely adopted by business owners (which short term is very hard to see), I see sales being more in line with other enthusiast or premium vehicles.

Price is only part of it. As a thought exercise, let’s say Tesla started selling these for $20,000… taking business owners out of the equation, I’m not sure how many of these you will see in regular consumers driveways. I’m beginning to realize most people want something just ever so slightly unique. The CT is probably too polarizing for most.

“We want new! We want different! Everything looks and drives the same!”

CT enters the room

“…not THAT different! We were thinking more along the lines of a slightly redesigned grill and slightly different aluminum body cladding!!!”

 

[Cyber Bear]

Unless these are widely adopted by business owners (which short term is very hard to see), I see sales being more in line with other enthusiast or premium vehicles.

Price is only part of it. As a thought exercise, let’s say Tesla started selling these for $20,000… taking business owners out of the equation, I’m not sure how many of these you will see in regular consumers driveways. I’m beginning to realize most people want something just ever so slightly unique. The CT is probably too polarizing for most.

“We want new! We want different! Everything looks and drives the same!”

CT enters the room

“…not THAT different! We were thinking more along the lines of a slightly redesigned grill and slightly different aluminum body cladding!!!”

Yes! The CT is the most unique vehicle to enter the market! And its appeal is greatly divided. Will there, for a long time, be enough that love it to sustain the premium value and purchase desire or not? Hopefully if enough try it out, there will be.

 

[koolio]

There are some really good Tesla analysts on X that question Troy's math and analysis (AJ being one...and who has been incredibly accurate).

I agree: at the current price point ($80k), I'd expect volumes to be similar to Model X (in best case scenario) or slightly worse. I state this purely based on price and style /design of the CT. I also do think over the next 1-3 years, it will slowly get more sales as more people get used to seeing them (adjusting to the style) but more importantly as they drive it. Once you drive the CT, you understand the magic.

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