We have some definite challenges ahead.

Zabhawkin

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https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/#:~:text=In 2020, total U.S. primary,or about 93 quadrillion Btu.

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/images/consumption-by-source-and-sector.pdf

Even if you take just transportation and residential we will need more than double the electricity generation we have now. I had no Idea that heating was more than half of home energy usage.

Edit: Probably closer to between 30% and 40% as far as peak capacity due to timing.
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Richard V.

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https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/#:~:text=In 2020, total U.S. primary,or about 93 quadrillion Btu.

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/images/consumption-by-source-and-sector.pdf

Even if you take just transportation and residential we will need more than double the electricity generation we have now. I had no Idea that heating was more than half of home energy usage.

Edit: Probably closer to between 30% and 40% as far as peak capacity due to timing.
I would look at it the other way. We have lots of new energy opportunities ahead... The end of "peak oil" will require a raise in renewable energy types and efficiencies.

"What Is Peak Oil? Peak oil refers to the hypothetical point at which global crude oil production will hit its maximum rate, after which production will start to decline. This concept is derived from geophysicist Marion King Hubbert's "peak theory," which states that oil production follows a bell-shaped curve." Ref: Peak Oil Definition (investopedia.com)

Tesla Cybertruck We have some definite challenges ahead. US Energy Consumption by Source and Sector, 2020
 
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Zabhawkin

Zabhawkin

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The challenges I am referring to is being able to produce enough electricity to avoid rolling blackouts. As we shut down fossil fueled power plants, transition homes fossil fuels for heat, and transition to electric for transportation things can and I expect them to get pretty dicy. Replacing 60% of our generation capacity while increasing peak demand.

Our current generation capacity is 1.12 billion KW. If you leave nuclear on we need to replace 672 million kw while adding another 336 million kw (30% increase). That is nearly building a whole new grid minus the power lines. Many want this done within the next 30 years. Its not undoable but will definitely be a challenge.
 

Richard V.

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The challenges I am referring to is being able to produce enough electricity to avoid rolling blackouts. As we shut down fossil fueled power plants, transition homes fossil fuels for heat, and transition to electric for transportation things can and I expect them to get pretty dicy. Replacing 60% of our generation capacity while increasing peak demand.

Our current generation capacity is 1.12 billion KW. If you leave nuclear on we need to replace 672 million kw while adding another 336 million kw (30% increase). That is nearly building a whole new grid minus the power lines. Many want this done within the next 30 years. Its not undoable but will definitely be a challenge.
Agree, it would/will definitively be a challenge, but I am optimistic, and think the new energy demands will create enough pressures to create sufficient innovation and supplies, given the markets can adjust with the proper costs of offers.

Cheers!
 
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BillyGee

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All of these reports just make me really glad that I have Tesla batteries in my garage already and solar panels being installed in the next month or so.
 


Richard V.

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All of these reports just make me really glad that I have Tesla batteries in my garage already and solar panels being installed in the next month or so.
Great! Congratulation on your initiative. When my house was build, 20 years ago, I got a 2 inch PVC pipe going from the South side wall to the West side of the house for holding batteries. I still hope to do it someday.
 

BillyGee

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Great! Congratulation on your initiative. When my house was build, 20 years ago, I got a 2 inch PVC pipe going from the South side wall to the West side of the house for holding batteries. I still hope to do it someday.
If you do, let me know. I can give you a referral code.
 

flowerlandfilms

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A lot of home heating problems are caused by poorly built homes with bad insulation, and unsealed doors and windows.
You can save a lot on heating/cooling just by doing some rather basic and sensible improvements in the home.
 

HaulingAss

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https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/#:~:text=In 2020, total U.S. primary,or about 93 quadrillion Btu.

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/images/consumption-by-source-and-sector.pdf

Even if you take just transportation and residential we will need more than double the electricity generation we have now. I had no Idea that heating was more than half of home energy usage.

Edit: Probably closer to between 30% and 40% as far as peak capacity due to timing.
This is misleading because it doesn't account for efficiency.

For example, as we switch from oil and natural gas heating to modern heat pumps that run on electricity, the efficiency goes way up. So we can replace 3 units of fossil fuel energy with one unit of electrical energy.

Also, EV's are about 3 times as efficient as ICE cars so the amount of energy required is 1/3.

Another factor not many people understand is there is a lot of electricity involved in the refining process and that is why every oil refinery has it's own electrical power substation. As cars transition off gas, refineries will go off-line freeing up huge amounts of electrical generation for other purposes.

Said another way, you cannot compare energy directly across sources because fossil energy reguires much more input to achieve the desired effect and this inefficiency compounds itself across various stages of energy use. You may only get X number of BTU's delivered by oil, natural gas or coal to heat your home but those BTU's have a lot of electrical energy embodied in them by the time they reach your home. In comparison, the losses to create and deliver electricity are relatively small.

So the challenge facing us is made to look insurmountable by vested interests trying to convince us that it's a more difficult job than it actually is. The truth of the matter is, it's actually quite simple. We just need to displace the vested interests and do it.
 
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CyberMoose

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I hope that with electric vehicles taking more and more of the market share, we will also see a large increase in homes with solar panels. Installations for both new homes and existing homes.

There are countless new developments in my city for new homes, yet so far I have not seen a single solar panel on a new home while in construction. As electric vehicles become more and more common, it would become more and more beneficial for people to buy homes that have solar panels already installed.

Usually the upfront cost vs how long it will take to pay off is the big question when people are considering having panels installed. With an EV and possibly opting for other electric alternatives for things such as the hot water tank and/or furnace; the time it will take to break even on the installation cost is reduced. This is even more true if developers have this as a common option for new developments because they can buy and ship them in bulk and they can be installed during the construction while they are putting on the roof.
 

Crissa

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The challenges I am referring to is being able to produce enough electricity to avoid rolling blackouts.
No.

Peak is in watts.
Total is in watt-hours.

These are not comparable.

EVs do not meaningfully increase the Peak, while it massively increases the Total.

-Crissa
 
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Zabhawkin

Zabhawkin

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We have some huge challenges ahead. Power generation is just one of them.

I suggest trying to set up your home so it is grid-independent for at least short amounts of time.
Already in work, I have 5kw of solar already installed, and am hoping to get another 2.5kw and battery storage by the end of the year. We have already started transitioning off of natural gas too. Just have the stove and the water heater to go. We have also been working on the house itself since it was built in 1970. Well built for its time I might add, but still need a lot of work to get it up to snuff by todays standards.


Just found this that makes me feel better.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46416

The rate of change if it at least holds steady should cover the replacement.
 

Ogre

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Before I invest $50,000 in a solar/ battery setup, I want to build out our solar heating panels. Two of our biggest power draws are home heating and hot water. If I can get some big solar heat collectors, I can eliminate a giant chunk of demand. Then the need for batteries and solar panels comes way down.

Just finished our hydronic setup so the solar heater will be the next big step.
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