What’s the odds on stock price effect of Thursday reveal?

Nolacyber

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It seems every time Tesla has a positive announcement the stock is negatively affected.

since Elon has prepared us with “we dug our own grave” remark; what’s the likely effect of Thursday?

I’d say down 10 but I’m still an overall optimist and won’t unload positions.
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It seems every time Tesla has a positive announcement the stock is negatively affected.

since Elon has prepared us with “we dug our own grave” remark; what’s the likely effect of Thursday?

I’d say down 10 but I’m still an overall optimist and won’t unload positions.

I’ll probably straddle it
 

charliemagpie

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Yea, You'd think Stock price would go up a bit on hype , but I noticed we often get hammered before good news, to me, I sense short sellers dampening the mood.

Realistically though, the stock isn't moving up on hot air these days, 4th quarter results are not going to be changed because of the CT release, I don't think the market is bullish enough to buy into the future just yet.

But who knows for sure?
 

BayouCityBob

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It is very odd that Tesla scheduled this in the middle of the trading day. That would suggest that they either expect no reaction or a positive reaction. When companies have bad news they schedule after hours so the market has time to digest and they can help control the spin.

The big potential market-moving news would be if they revealed how many reservations they had or if they combined that with revised production forecast for 2024. Oh, that plus they are totally going to reveal the roadster on Thursday. LOL
 


CYBRSMTH

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It seems every time Tesla has a positive announcement the stock is negatively affected.

since Elon has prepared us with “we dug our own grave” remark; what’s the likely effect of Thursday?

I’d say down 10 but I’m still an overall optimist and won’t unload positions.
It will probably drop, because the hype is so unrealistically high.
 

HaulingAss

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It seems every time Tesla has a positive announcement the stock is negatively affected.

since Elon has prepared us with “we dug our own grave” remark; what’s the likely effect of Thursday?

I’d say down 10 but I’m still an overall optimist and won’t unload positions.
I assume you mean down $10/share, but the real question is down from what?

Are you speaking of down $10 from the current price of $236 or the price at Wednesday's close or the price at 11am PST, right before the event begins?

$10 is a really small move for a stock like Tesla, inconsequential, really. It's really impossible to say when and how the stock will react, especially since we don't know whether or not the stock will run up into the event (and how much), or what new information will be revealed. It would amount to gambling, really. I've made millions investing in Tesla and therefore have no interest in taking my chances on something that could easily go either way, that is not how a person accumulates wealth.

I've been actively investing in disruptive companies for decades, but when I say "actively" that might involve zero trades for a slow year, a busy year might involve 10-15 trades. I've done so well playing the long game on disruptive companies I have zero desire to place a gamble, even if the odds might be slightly in my favor. My tax bill thanks me. If you want to become wealthy, you want to avoid short-term capital gains because that represents capital that can no longer continue to compound in value. Same with long-term capital gains too, they just typically are taxed at a lower rate. Non-investors under-estimate the power of compounding and over-estimate the value of immediate profits. The fewer capital gains you pay during the wealth building period of your life, the better it willl go. Much better.

All that said, I've never seen a stock more manupulated by the market makers than TSLA. I would guess we go into the event higher than we are now (manipulators collecting shares to dump) and have some selling pressure during the event in an attempt to reinforce a narrative that the Cybertruck will be a failure. This may or may not be successful in the immediate short-term, but where the share price goes in the next several months has less to do with the Cybertruck and more to do with the overall macro-economic sentiment. If that remains neutral, I don't see the stock spending much time at all below $225. Tesla is a good long-term buy here. It was even better at $105/share. It's a good stock to accumulate as much as you can over time for long-term appreciation, and never sell a single share until the company's various initiatives have either matured or been abandoned.

The power of compounding gains doesn't work nearly as well if one keeps taking profits and paying the capital gains along the way. And if you trade a lot, based upon what you think the next week, or the next several months has in store, that's exactly what you will be doing. It's very hard to reach that point where money doesn't matter if you are always churning your positions. That's why the wealthiest investors in the world are not traders, but buy and hold investors like Warren Buffet. The traders that do well almost all use sophisticated mathematical models (quant trading). Traders who trade events and news and other media driven events tend to struggle to beat the Index funds and most of them underperform the Indexes or go broke.

Wall Street doesn't like me to inform newer investors of these facts because they need lots of fresh blood to maximize their profits. Buy and hold is the way to acquiring so much wealth that you can spend lavishly and still watch your net worth grow, the point where there are 100 things in your life more important than money. Otherwise you will always be wanting more.
 
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Kahpernicus

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like midgatevalu13 said, mid day trading announcement is weird.

They must have a homerun lined up to do it at that hour.

RIP lighting.
 

HaulingAss

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like midgatevalu13 said, mid day trading announcement is weird.

They must have a homerun lined up to do it at that hour.

RIP lighting.
I wouldn't read too much into the mid-day thing, there is nothing wrong with releasing material information during trading hours, as long as everyone has equal access to it. Tesla doesn't concern themselves with daily share price volatility at all, it's just noise to them.

I do think the truck specs will largely fall into line with what we already think we know, and the primary surprise (or surprises) will make a lot of reservationists very happy. But that won't stop the media from presenting the release as disappointing, Elon not keeping his promises or some such hogwash. That's one thing that's absolutely guaranteed!
 

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I wouldn't read too much into the mid-day thing, there is nothing wrong with releasing material information during trading hours, as long as everyone has equal access to it. Tesla doesn't concern themselves with daily share price volatility at all, it's just noise to them.

I do think the truck specs will largely fall into line with what we already think we know, and the primary surprise (or surprises) will make a lot of reservationists very happy. But that won't stop the media from presenting the release as disappointing, Elon not keeping his promises or some such hogwash. That's one thing that's absolutely guaranteed!
I don't think tesla or any of the musk companies have made major announcement/releases inside of trading hour for a while.

Naive to think they don't think about trading hours tbh.
 

HaulingAss

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I don't think tesla or any of the musk companies have made major announcement/releases inside of trading hour for a while.

Naive to think they don't think about trading hours tbh.
I didn't say Tesla didn't consider that it would be during trading hours, it's just that they don't care that much. Volatility is just volatility, it's not a big deal. If people want to trade based on minute-by-minute events, go ahead, no skin off Tesla's nose.
 

Kahpernicus

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I didn't say Tesla didn't consider that it would be during trading hours, it's just that they don't care that much. Volatility is just volatility, it's not a big deal. If people want to trade based on minute-by-minute events, go ahead, no skin off Tesla's nose.
lol ok
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