What is the likelihood that the first CT deliveries will be the Tri-CT with FSD option enabled?

Jhodgesatmb

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I will be extremely surprised if the first run of CTs are tri-motor. Dual motor has been Tesla's bread and butter. They can make dual motors vehicles in their sleep. They have yet to produce a tri-motor anything aside from a prototype Model S. I think they will stick with what they know at first.

Regarding FSD... I recently was in line to buy a Model Y. People tracking those sales did not notice any sort of bias toward people with FSD. But Tesla can certainly start doing that at any time.
Tesla said tri would be first. What is your source?
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GnarlyDudeLive

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Assuming the CT production constraint is *specifically* tied to battery production as some have suggested: I would believe the most profitable CT to release would then be the Dual CT w/FSD. With requiring ~1/2 the batteries as the Tri Motor, Tesla could pump out nearly 2x as many Dual vs Tri configurations. Now if the constraint of production is somewhere else then that changes the dynamics likely. I could be wrong though and the Tri model has a much larger profit margin than I think it would be but it would need to be almost double that of the Single/Dual models....
 
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Jhodgesatmb

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Tesla says a lot of things. I have no source, it should have been clear I was speculating.

What is you source?
Tesla does say a lot of things and we can take most everything they say with a grain of salt. That said, Tesla announced it themselves, and reiterated on several occasions publicly. You can even go back through the threads here to find it. Here are two:


https://insideevs.com/news/446222/video-tesla-cybertruck-battery-tech-launch-date/
https://www.businessinsider.com/tes...me-models-coming-sooner-than-expected-2019-12

Originally single motor was going to be made first, but within a couple weeks it became apparent that the tri motor was the most popular so Tesla swapped the order.
 


Alan

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Have you seen anywhere where they said the dual motor would be made first? I haven’t.
On the order page both dual and tri say end of 2021
 

Rockvillerich

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I would say that tri-motor will come first but for a different reason. I would imagine, a.k.a. pulling this idea out my butt, they would want to verify every component of the assembly line first by making the vehicle that uses all the stations. Make a bunch of those for customers and see if there are any issues, then do a new recipe with less items instead of the other way around. My two cents, which may be what it's worth.
In addition to that Tesla is going to want the first addition to smoke the Rivian, so a tri-motor is going to be necessary.
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