What will happen to diesel powered equipment?

jhogan2424

Well-known member
First Name
Jason
Joined
Apr 24, 2021
Threads
8
Messages
331
Reaction score
497
Location
USA
Vehicles
Moped
EVs are going to be mainstream for personal transportation in the very near future and I think it’s hard to argue otherwise. But, what about heavy equipment such as tractors, skid steers, excavators, dozers, dump trucks etc? I am wondering what will happen to the value of the million dollars worth of equipment I own. I have seen almost no options for battery electric equipment. IHI is manufacturing an electric tracked excavator but it is not battery powered and must be plugged in which could never work for my applications. Will my equipment all become nearly worthless in the near future? Should I try to replace each piece of equipment with battery powered as soon as something is offered? I have thought of this but replacing equipment that is proven reliable with a brand new technology seems a little risky and a lot expensive. Anyone have any thoughts? Will diesel powered equipment stay the norm or will we begin to see battery powered heavy equipment? It seems a huge challenge for batteries to push around thousands of tons of materials all day.
Sponsored

 

JJ_Tex

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 10, 2021
Threads
5
Messages
141
Reaction score
337
Location
Prosper, TX
Vehicles
Just Purchased: 2021 F150 Hybrid Platinum
Country flag
I see the shift to EV happening, but it will be at a much slower pace.

For personal equipment, do what makes sense for your use case. For example, I have a gas mower, electric weed eater, electric blower, and gas edger. I bought a battery edger, but that was very short-lived as it was not powerful enough to edge my entire yard in one charge as I have a small yard but there are lots of edging with the sidewalks, driveways, etc. Hopefully, the edger technology improves and I can switch to an electric one sometime in the future. Also, my small yard would be perfect for an electric mower and I will switch to electric but not until my current mower dies.

For heavy equipment, I think it too will shift but it will take decades. Caterpillar just announced they are working on EV mining equipment so that is a good start but seems to be in its infancy.
Source: https://electrek.co/2021/06/29/egeb...op-all-electric-vehicles-for-a-graphite-mine/

I would also think trains, boats, airplanes will switch to EV but I do not see them getting rid of all of the fossil fuel burning equipment in my lifetime.
 

HaulingAss

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 3, 2020
Threads
17
Messages
7,007
Reaction score
14,364
Location
Western Washington, USA
Vehicles
Cybertruck DM, 2010 F-150, 2018 Performance Model 3, 2024 Performance Model 3
Country flag
EVs are going to be mainstream for personal transportation in the very near future and I think it’s hard to argue otherwise. But, what about heavy equipment such as tractors, skid steers, excavators, dozers, dump trucks etc? I am wondering what will happen to the value of the million dollars worth of equipment I own. I have seen almost no options for battery electric equipment. IHI is manufacturing an electric tracked excavator but it is not battery powered and must be plugged in which could never work for my applications. Will my equipment all become nearly worthless in the near future? Should I try to replace each piece of equipment with battery powered as soon as something is offered? I have thought of this but replacing equipment that is proven reliable with a brand new technology seems a little risky and a lot expensive. Anyone have any thoughts? Will diesel powered equipment stay the norm or will we begin to see battery powered heavy equipment? It seems a huge challenge for batteries to push around thousands of tons of materials all day.
They will all go electric but the transition of heavy equipment is going to take a lot longer than cars so I don't think there is any rush.
 
OP
OP
jhogan2424

jhogan2424

Well-known member
First Name
Jason
Joined
Apr 24, 2021
Threads
8
Messages
331
Reaction score
497
Location
USA
Vehicles
Moped
These thoughts make me feel considerably better. In the next year or so I will be needing to replace an excavator and I always try to think ahead. I was thinking should I continue to repair my current machine when needed so as make it last until an electric hit the market or go ahead and purchase a new diesel model. I wouldn’t want to invest the money in a machine and then learn a year later that it had become obsolet overnight. Hopefully electric models will make it to market and both electric and diesel models can coexist without one taking the other out. Thanks for the replies.
 


Ogre

Well-known member
First Name
Dennis
Joined
Jul 3, 2021
Threads
166
Messages
10,739
Reaction score
27,055
Location
Ogregon
Vehicles
Model Y
Country flag
Big equipment has a lot of issues cars and trucks lack. Just figuring how to charge something that requires 500 kWh or more in the field is going to be tough.

I’m pretty sure you have at least a decade before it’sa big concern.
 

CyberGus

Well-known member
First Name
Gus
Joined
May 22, 2021
Threads
80
Messages
7,416
Reaction score
24,198
Location
Austin, TX
Vehicles
1981 DeLorean, 2024 Cybertruck
Occupation
IT Specialist
Country flag
Combustion engines will be around for a long time. Heavy construction, farm equipment, aerospace/aviation, military, etc. Hydrogen isn't completely crazy for such a use case.

In a theoretical apocalypse, you could still make your own biodiesel (organic oil, lye, and methanol) so diesel will never disappear. If forced to farm with electricity only, the equipment could be corded (long cord, I know lol) or even have overhead wires like the San Francisco trolleys.

For the dwindling-but-persistent fleet of gas cars, there will still be gas demand for many decades. Worst case, you pay $10/gallon for Porsche's synthetic gasoline.
 

fritter63

Well-known member
First Name
Mark
Joined
Jan 21, 2020
Threads
33
Messages
1,470
Reaction score
2,969
Location
Atascadero
Vehicles
2024 Model X
Occupation
Wax on, Wax off!
Country flag
anol) so diesel will never disappear. If forced to farm with electricity only, the equipment could be corded (long cord, I know lol) or even have overhead wires like the San Francisco trolleys.
Unless much of it is replaced by hydroponics and vertical farming, which is more efficient and uses less water anyway.
 

Zabhawkin

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 1, 2021
Threads
11
Messages
323
Reaction score
529
Location
New Mexico
Vehicles
1999 Nissan Frontier, 2015 F-150, 1984 Jeep CJ7
Country flag
Even looking at ICE cars. Some states/countries are looking at ICE free (no new ICE vehicles sold) in the 2030-2035 timeframe, and that is for light duty, though I do expect the delivery vans and short haul tractor trailer rigs to transition about the same timeframe. The average ICE car lasts about 20-30 years. You should be able to get gasoline through 2050 at least though cost might become a factor.

That's not even counting the fact that I am expecting the transition on the grid to cause delays. Removing 60% of production while increasing demand by 20% in 30-40 years. That doesn't include Nuclear which is another 20% of current US electricity production.

Diesel will be around for longer than gasoline due to what it is used for and the areas it tends to be used for.
 

Cyberman

Well-known member
First Name
Adam
Joined
Apr 7, 2020
Threads
37
Messages
2,519
Reaction score
3,958
Location
San Diego
Vehicles
F150,F550, Escape
Occupation
Cybercontractor
Country flag
I agree, it'll be a few decades before there's any notable shift in heavy equipment
 


Quicksilver

Well-known member
First Name
Charles
Joined
Feb 24, 2020
Threads
10
Messages
551
Reaction score
648
Location
Alabama
Vehicles
Nissan van
Occupation
Retired military
Country flag
We just had to replace an 2004 Ram 3500 with a 2022 Ram 3500.
The big bastage cost more than my first house and has the Cummins diesel, automatic and 4WD.
Had there been an electric truck that could do the same thing the 3500 does (haul hay and stock trailers and multiple pallets of bagged feed) I would have bought one without hesitation.
It may be several years before medium duty trucks (one ton to ten ton) can be electrified.
I foresee a smaller version of the Tesla semi tractor (stretched to accept different style beds) and falling into the 60 to 80 thousand dollar price range.
Diesel is already high and modern diesels have to use DEF which adds several cents to a gallon of fuel.
I also don't see small farm tractors going electric anytime soon.
It takes me two full days and a tank and a half of diesel to bush hog 30 acres of pasture. I can't see a small electric tractor (at a reasonable price) that could match the performance or price of a diesel anytime soon. As a benchmark my 54 HP Kioti 4WD with front end loader and backhoe set me back 36K two years ago.
As we all know it it the battery restriction that is holding back the production of electric cars and trucks.
Once battery production increases dramatically we will see more and more electrification of formally ICE equipment.
IMHO we are looking at 10-15 years.
 

Cybertruck Hawaii

Banned
Well-known member
Banned
First Name
Michael
Joined
Apr 24, 2021
Threads
0
Messages
590
Reaction score
419
Location
Honolulu
Vehicles
Sienna
Occupation
Retired
Country flag
ICE vehicles will be still around for the heavy duty applications. That will be a small amount. For the majority of the population, going electric vehicles will be the solution for a cleaner planet.
Sponsored

 
 





Top