What Will Tesla be Like, when the New Factories are Ramped Up?

FutureBoy

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TLDR: Justification for a $3000 to $5000 TSLA stock price by 2024 or 2025.

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John K

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What Will Tesla be Like, when the New Factories are Ramped Up?

Elon: I Told you So!


Humble response.

Iā€™m bullish but, I do not know if I am $5,000 bullish by end of 25
 

charliemagpie

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$5,000 by the end of 2024.

Only counting the car businessā€¦ No Energy. No FSD. Nothing.
Tesla will equal Apple's yearly profit... making it $2500 per share.
I would at least value growth twice as much as Apple at that point.

Is this far-fetched ?

4,000,000Cars sold ( conservative)
$ 15,000Profit per car ( conservative)
$ 60,000,000,000Total Profitā€¦. Thatā€™s Billion!
 

Ogre

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Iā€™m bullish but, I do not know if I am $5,000 bullish by end of 25
Of course not, gotta set reasonable expectations, it'll only be about $1,200/ share by 2025. After the 5 to 1 split.

One crazy thing about Tesla is... I can almost see that happening.

Just consider for a moment the following is possible (some of it is highly likely):
  • FSD hits it's stride, FSD/ hands free most everywhere would likely double take-rate on FSD that's Billions in high margin revenue unlocked.
    • Stretch Goal: Robo-taxi unlikely but would be absolutely massive.
  • Production hits 5m vehicles shipped, Cybertruck, Roadster, Semi, and Mystery 25k car ships.
    • Stretch: Cybertruck shipping 1m/ year alone.
    • Extra credit: at current 75% growth rate, maybe hit 7m vehicles/ year?
  • Margins maintain at 32%, operating expenses remain flat increasing operating margins.
    • Stretch: FSD boosts margins to 40%.
  • Tesla energy... this is a whole other discussion. Tesla energy can easily expand to 20x current.
  • TeslaBot is born...

Hitting all of that, including the stretch goals might get us to a $5,000 from here. I'm not predicting that much. But I do see the possibility. Probably the key to it all though is if in 2025 it still looks like 20m vehicles/ year will be possible by 2030.
 

Bill906

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Of course not, gotta set reasonable expectations, it'll only be about $1,200/ share by 2025. After the 5 to 1 split.

One crazy thing about Tesla is... I can almost see that happening.

Just consider for a moment the following is possible (some of it is highly likely):
  • FSD hits it's stride, FSD/ hands free most everywhere would likely double take-rate on FSD that's Billions in high margin revenue unlocked.
    • Stretch Goal: Robo-taxi unlikely but would be absolutely massive.
  • Production hits 5m vehicles shipped, Cybertruck, Roadster, Semi, and Mystery 25k car ships.
    • Stretch: Cybertruck shipping 1m/ year alone.
    • Extra credit: at current 75% growth rate, maybe hit 7m vehicles/ year?
  • Margins maintain at 32%, operating expenses remain flat increasing operating margins.
    • Stretch: FSD boosts margins to 40%.
  • Tesla energy... this is a whole other discussion. Tesla energy can easily expand to 20x current.
  • TeslaBot is born...

Hitting all of that, including the stretch goals might get us to a $5,000 from here. I'm not predicting that much. But I do see the possibility. Probably the key to it all though is if in 2025 it still looks like 20m vehicles/ year will be possible by 2030.
First line made me
Tesla Cybertruck What Will Tesla be Like, when the New Factories are Ramped Up? 1641845018347
. But I
Tesla Cybertruck What Will Tesla be Like, when the New Factories are Ramped Up? 1641845178580
the entire post.
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