What's the current Cybertruck Production Rate?

[kbolt]

About a month ago some were speculating that Giga Texas was producing about 10 CTs per day. Now that it has undergone some retooling do we have any updated estimate? Did they ramp to greater than 10 per day before the retooling?

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[Crissa]

About a month ago some were speculating that Giga Texas was producing about 10 CTs per day. Now that it has undergone some retooling do we have any updated estimate? Did they ramp to greater than 10 per day before the retooling?

Well, it was zero for a few days while they worked on something on the line.

With low numbers there's going to be alot of bouncing around of production numbers.

-Crissa

 

[kbolt]

Well, it was zero for a few days while they worked on something on the line.

With low numbers there's going to be alot of bouncing around of production numbers.

-Crissa

Yeah, I'm just hoping for some exponential growth. Hopefully, they get to 20 a day soon.

 

[FrankMcEnnis]

There is no run rate at all, it's just testing, testing the assembly line, making ct for additional testing, making ct for crash test.

 

[ZARDOZ]

Let’s hope the CT is more exciting than the yearly new iPhone.

 

[CyberGus]

SO: I need the new iPhone
ME: No you don’t.
SO: But it’s so cool
ME: Big deal, no one cares.
SO: [fuming] …you still getting that truck?
ME: [sweating] …you want a case with your new phone?

 

[cvalue13]

About a month ago some were speculating that Giga Texas was producing about 10 CTs per day.

None have been completed on the high volume production line, and first production, of saleable units, is likely still months away.

Meanwhile, validation goes on, and they’ve built ~120 release candidates in ~75days.

All of which is moving much faster than traditional OEMs would.

And while every move is being watched by zealots like us, over-eager and under-patient.

 

[C T Rick]

None have been completed on the high volume production line, and first production, of saleable units, is likely still months away.

Meanwhile, validation goes on, and they’ve built ~120 release candidates in ~75days.

All of which is moving much faster than traditional OEMs would.

And while every move is being watched by zealots like us, over-eager and under-patient.

Without giving away your source of this inner knowledge, how do you know this information?

Rick

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Yeah, I'm just hoping for some exponential growth. Hopefully, they get to 20 a day soon.

As @cvalue13 has pointed out many times, all of the Cybertrucks we have seen are probably associated with the low-volume line and we will not see (or, realistically, want to see) growth in the numbers from the LV line. We want it to be mothballed and for the HV line to start producing trucks. That is when we can start the ramp watch.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

None have been completed on the high volume production line, and first production, of saleable units, is likely still months away.

Meanwhile, validation goes on, and they’ve built ~120 release candidates in ~75days.

All of which is moving much faster than traditional OEMs would.

And while every move is being watched by zealots like us, over-eager and under-patient.

You are right: we were told to expect a delivery event at the end of Q3, and then early in October, and Tesla started offering tickets to the Delivery Event. How else are we to feel than anxious and frustrated? Months away? I hope that you really mean months away for non-Illuminati reservation holders because a delivery event would have to be saleable units.

 

[cvalue13]

Without giving away your source of this inner knowledge, how do you know this information?

How can I describe how I know this information without describing how I know this information?

Meanwhile and separately, one might arrive at roughly the same conclusions if following in detail the various bits of publicly-available information, including but not limited to:

(A) as a background matter, general familiarity with the product development roadmap of new-vehicles (particularly new platforms, rather than cousin platforms) prior to first production​

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(B) as a background matter, Tesla's historical processes and nomenclature towards first production (e.g., delivery event of advanced pre-production builds to insiders occurring 1-4 months *prior* to official announcement of "first production" of saleable units)​

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(C) as a background matter, crowd-sourced historical information regarding Tesla's VIN numbers, including for prototype units prior to first production​

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(D) date of first GFTX validation build completion (July 16tth) and lack of announced delivery event schedule​

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(E) observed differences in Beta builds (from Fremont) vs Release Candidate builds (from GFTX)​

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(F) observed Tesla VIN batch numbers attributable to Beta builds (R005XX) vs Release Candidate builds (R006XX and R007XX) vs manufacturing confirmation builds ([R][F]00[?]XX) vs saleable unit builds - i.e., 'first production' - (00000X)​

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(G) observed release candidate build numbers (e.g., lowest 6-series seen = 602, highest = 698 while highest 7-series seen = 724)​

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(H) observed differences between 6-series and 7-series builds (e.g., differing interior features, accessories), including as relates to peaks and valleys in numbers of units in outbound lot​

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(I) location and nature of spotted/leaked builds within TXGF (e.g., units not in the general assembly area, that are in partial state of build, surrounded by parts crates and hand tool cabinets)​

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(J) location and nature of spotted/leaked builds that have departed GFTX (e.g., largely Fremont, independent crash test providers, SAE tow rating accreditation routes, promotional filming in Iceland, etc.)​

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(K) observed lack of expected key permitting (e.g., Tesla has not yet filed for a Travis County event permit for an insider delivery event, which typically has a 45-day lead time to approval) or Tesla announcements (e.g., to allow attendees time to make travel arrangements, how far in advance would Tesla announce the delivery event?)​

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(L) an inclination to read between lines rather than inject hopium into every xwitter 'rumour' being put forward by impression-farming influenza accounts​

But also (M)

 

[cvalue13]

You are right: we were told to expect a delivery event at the end of Q3, and then early in October, and Tesla started offering tickets to the Delivery Event. How else are we to feel than anxious and frustrated? Months away? I hope that you really mean months away for non-Illuminati reservation holders because a delivery event would have to be saleable units.

That's the thing: a "delivery event" is not of saleable production units.

They are instead basically late-stage production line validation units, the 'buyers' of which are acting essentially as beta-testers (to use the colloquial term not the Tesla product roadmap term) with non-standard arrangements, prior to the christening of the hv production line.

a 'saleable' unit in contrast would essentially pass all the required muster of regulations, and go through the normal sales process and T&Cs, related to an arms-length sale of a product from a manufacturer to a consumer.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

That's the thing: a "delivery event" is not of saleable production units.

They are instead basically late-stage production line validation units, the 'buyers' of which are acting essentially as beta-testers (to use the colloquial term not the Tesla product roadmap term) with non-standard arrangements, prior to the christening of the hv production line.

a 'saleable' unit in contrast would essentially pass all the required muster of regulations, and go through the normal sales process and T&Cs, related to an arms-length sale of a product from a manufacturer to a consumer.

If that is the case, and I would accept it as such, what 'are' the requirements for the vehicles delivered at a delivery event? That is, if it is largely Elon saying "this is good enough for a delivery event" rather than passing any/all certifications, then why not just schedule the event and get on with it? He was the one that gave the original date out. Is he out of the loop on one of his favorite projects?

 

[cvalue13]

If that is the case, and I would accept it as such, what 'are' the requirements for the vehicles delivered at a delivery event? That is, if it is largely Elon saying "this is good enough for a delivery event" rather than passing any/all certifications

well, I don't know that it's a simple as an Elon sniff-test, so much as there being some meeting of expected validations and certifications such that they feel prepared for two overlapping things:

(1) probably less importantly, that the units they are delivering meet sufficient quality and safety minimums for purpose, and

(2) once a delivery event is announced, and then held, they will have (upon announcement) raised the public stakes and spectacle of expectations for saleable timelines, and (upon teh delivery event) made public details about model availability, option availability, likely pricing, and then also likely assertions about expected high volume saleable production

in other words, announcing the delivery event sets off a chain reaction of commitments that Tesla isn't ready to make until it's ready to make - that's what all this validation is for.

then why not just schedule the event and get on with it? He was the one that gave the original date out. Is he out of the loop on one of his favorite projects?

that's the thing, he hasn't given out any date certain

back in April Q1 he made a hedged comment about *aspiring* to Q3:

Speaker 3 (19:29):​

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Thank you. And maybe the last question from investors, can you give updated specs and pricing for Cybertruck and any new features that will make it to production?​

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Elon Musk (19:42):​

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Well, I think we’ll save that for the Cybertruck handover, which will hopefully be around the end of Q3 this year.​

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then in July at Q2, after the pilot line moved from Fremont to GFTX, he was asked essentially the identical question and what he *didn't* say is as telling as what he *did* say:

Martin Viecha​

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All right. The next question, "When will you -- when will you give more information about the Cybertruck orders, estimated delivery schedules, pricing, and specifications?"​

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Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect​

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... So -- and the production ramp will move as fast as the slowest and least likely elements of the -- of the entire supply chain and -- and internal production. So, you know, I wouldn't expect, you know -- I hope it's smooth. You know, we're certainly better at production ramps than we -- you know, we've got a lot of experience with the production ramps.​

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But, you know, our first -- our first order approximation is there's like 10,000 unique parts and processes in -- in a -- you know, in the Cybertruck. And if any one of it'll go as fast as the least lucky, you know, at least well-executed element of the 10,000. So, always very difficult to predict the -- the ramp initially, but I think we'll be making them in high volume next year, and we will be delivering the car this year.​

remembering these are public comments on an investor call, and so applying the appropriate inference filter, it means that between April and July (and after all the learnings of setting up the pilot line), Musk no longer felt comfortable asserting a Q3 date (or he definitely would have reiterated it for investors). More than that, he didn't feel comfortable keying to any particular month thereafter. And still hedged whether a delivery event would occur in Q4 - all that lead in talk of "it'll move at the pace of the weakest link in 10,000 new parts/processes"

I've seen a few folks mention this October reference, but if I've seen it I apparently ignored/forgot it quickly.

what is this October reference?

For what it's worth, analysts project an October ~17th earnings release. If no delivery date has been set before then, the Q3 call will be telling

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