Where will Tesla get 4680 batteries for the CyberTruck in 2024?

[intimidator]

Tesla has not yet stated publicly where the 4680 batteries will come from to put into the 2024 CyberTruck.

ASSUMING Tesla will be making them solely themselves is not wise since last we heard Tesla was struggling to make their own 4680s as energy dense / efficient as they hoped. As well as manufacture them fast enough to make them at a "profitable" price point. If Tesla made 4680s are not any more energy dense then their 2170s, it would make it really hard to offer a CT with 400+ miles of range without a huge (heavy and costly) pack.

Scouring the internet, as well as asking AI.BARD and ChatGPT, we still don't have a definite answer.

Panasonic was thought to be inline to produce a portion of the early CyberTruck 4680s, but very recently they announced they are delaying 4680 battery production...."Panasonic now plans to start 4680 cell production between April 2024 and September 2024 (per Reuters) Besides Panasonic, Tesla has indicated they will include LG Energy Solution and CATL in sourcing 4680 batteries. But we don't have any specifics.

Tesla is still making 4680s at Keto Road, as well as a pilot line at Austin, but has not yet transferred full production to GigaTexas, as originally planned. It appears they have not yet smoothed out the energy density challenges yet.

According to Tesla's latest report on 4680 cells, the electric carmaker was producing 868,000 units of these cells per week. This would barely be enough to make 1,000 Model Y battery packs, and Giga Texas alone recently reached a weekly production rate of 5,000 Model Ys.

Even if Tesla discontinued using 4680's in the Model Ys coming out of Texas, and diverted all those 4680s to CyberTrucks, the #s don't add up to be enough to supply the CyberTruck goals for 2024.


Where do you think Tesla will get enough 4680s for the first year of production of the CyberTruck?

Elon did say that he projects selling 250,000 CyberTrucks per year (maybe more), but of course that does not mean Tesla will hit that # in 2024. Could Tesla throttle CyberTruck in 2024 to say 100,000 units because of the supply constraint on batteries?

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[charliemagpie]

By 2024 the current 4680 status 'as we know it' will be 12 months old.

We were told they have a roadmap to get there, so IMO we are on our way there.

BTW, I don't know why we get overawed with numbers.. once they turn on the bottling plant, we will have more 4680's than we know what to do with.

 

[intimidator]

By 2024 the current 4680 status 'as we know it' will be 12 months old.

We were told they have a roadmap to get there, so IMO we are on our way there.

BTW, I don't know why we get overawed with numbers.. once they turn on the bottling plant, we will have more 4680's than we know what to do with.

My guess is it will be a struggle to get enough 4680s, with enough energy density, at a manufacturing cost "acceptable" for CyberTruck production. (A struggle...but not impossible)

My additional guess is Cybertruck production in the 1st quarter of 2024 will be relatively modest, partly due to a constraint on 4680s, and Tesla will deliver 125,000 CyberTrucks by the end of 2024. But I hope I am wrong because I want my CyberTruck sooner than the end of 2025.

 

[SolarWizard]

I believe they’ll be using 2170 cells which is the reason its changed from a true exoskeleton design to whatever it is now

 

[intimidator]

I believe they’ll be using 2170 cells which is the reason its changed from a true exoskeleton design to whatever it is now

I hadn't heard that.

That is disappointing because it will limit the range....unless they put a huge, heavy, expensive battery pack in.

 

[BayouCityBob]

I think this is a whole lot of speculative worry about very little. This is the most recent detailed update on 4680 from last month offers a lot of details that are very encouraging with rapid progress each quarter.

https://electrek.co/2023/04/21/tesla-update-4680-battery-cell/

Lots of details but key message:
"Altogether, the team accomplished a 25% reduction in COGS over the quarter and we are on track to achieve steady-state cost targets over the next 12 months. And going forward for the rest of the year, the priority one is to yield in cost for the 4680 program as we steadily ramp production ahead of Cybertruck next year."

And, BTW, the point in the last sentence is the important one. There are a bunch of folks suggesting that there will be tens of thousands of CTs on the road this year. Tesla has not said that and I think it is exceptionally unlikely we will see more than a few thousand (and I would not be surprised if it is a few hundred).

 

[intimidator]

I think this is a whole lot of speculative worry about very little. This is the most recent detailed update on 4680 from last month offers a lot of details that are very encouraging with rapid progress each quarter.

https://electrek.co/2023/04/21/tesla-update-4680-battery-cell/

Lots of details but key message:
"Altogether, the team accomplished a 25% reduction in COGS over the quarter and we are on track to achieve steady-state cost targets over the next 12 months. And going forward for the rest of the year, the priority one is to yield in cost for the 4680 program as we steadily ramp production ahead of Cybertruck next year."

And, BTW, the point in the last sentence is the important one. There are a bunch of folks suggesting that there will be tens of thousands of CTs on the road this year. Tesla has not said that and I think it is exceptionally unlikely we will see more than a few thousand (and I would not be surprised if it is a few hundred).

I totally agree with your ascertain that there will be just a few CyberTrucks built and delivered in 2023. If there are only 3000-5000 this year, that wouldn't surprise me.

As far as the ramp of 4680s go, it is okay to acknowledge sometimes Tesla/Elon doesn't hit their projected timeline(s). The CyberTruck itself is late. 4680s are late. The roadster and semi were late. Which is all okay. So if the 4680 ramp doesn't happen as soon as Tesla suggested at their latest 1st quarter investor meeting, that is okay. I want my CyberTruck yesterday, but if they have to push it back an additional 6-9 months because of the 4680, that is okay.

 

[BayouCityBob]

As far as the ramp of 4680s go, it is okay to acknowledge sometimes Tesla/Elon doesn't hit their projected timeline(s). The CyberTruck itself is late. 4680s are late.

I completely agree that there is still a LOT of scope for further slippage in the ramp and timeline. You can see that in Drew's comments above (this is a Baglino project not an Elon project). They seem to be making good progress, the Q2 update will be telling. If they yield and volume continue to track upward, and if the new equipment related to the cathode issues he described is installed and working, then they should be well on their way. If they hit a pothole, the ramp slows and moves to the right. Too soon to tell. As I read his comments, they have a credible plan and there is still considerable risk in that plan.

 

[Crimson_Fate]

If they release the TRI (or quad) motor CT first they should not have a problem getting the 4680 battery supply ramped up to meet production. We may not even see a dual motor CT until the tri-motor backlog is dimished (2025) . Then we will see the Dual motor production and Will also likely see any new TRI-motor orders getting pushed to the head of the line just like they did for the MYP over MYLR.

I don't belive that there is any way that the CT gets 2170's since this would mean ditching the structural pack and having to retool the entire interior assembly .

 

[Crissa]

Tesla has not yet stated publicly where the 4680 batteries will come from...

Tesla never says where specific battery cells come from. These will come from Austin, most likely. We have no idea what the current output of the cell line is; the last we heard was nine months ago, and the last chemistry was more than a year ago.

I believe they’ll be using 2170 cells which is the reason its changed from a true exoskeleton design to whatever it is now

This seems to indicate an understanding of 'exoskeleton' which is different than what the word means. Or how structures work. Dude, let it go.

There has been zero indication they would use the 2170 cell in production Cybertrucks as opposed to pre-production ones.

-Crissa

 

[intimidator]

If they release the TRI (or quad) motor CT first they should not have a problem getting the 4680 battery supply ramped up to meet production.

We may not even see a dual motor CT until the tri-motor backlog is dimished (2025) . Then we will see the Dual motor production and Will also likely see any new TRI-motor orders getting pushed to the head of the line just like they did for the MYP over MYLR.

I don't belive that there is any way that the CT gets 2170's since this would mean ditching the structural pack and having to retool the entire interior assembly .

We don't know there won't be a problem getting enough 4680s to meet production plans. We hope they will meet their goals, but there is no way of knowing for sure. Of course they could decide to only make 5000 a month early in 2024 to match production....but I don't think we will know until sometime in the 4th quarter.

 

[EVSport7]

Tesla has not yet stated publicly where the 4680 batteries will come from to put into the 2024 CyberTruck.

ASSUMING Tesla will be making them solely themselves is not wise since last we heard Tesla was struggling to make their own 4680s as energy dense / efficient as they hoped. As well as manufacture them fast enough to make them at a "profitable" price point. If Tesla made 4680s are not any more energy dense then their 2170s, it would make it really hard to offer a CT with 400+ miles of range without a huge (heavy and costly) pack.

Scouring the internet, as well as asking AI.BARD and ChatGPT, we still don't have a definite answer.

Panasonic was thought to be inline to produce a portion of the early CyberTruck 4680s, but very recently they announced they are delaying 4680 battery production...."Panasonic now plans to start 4680 cell production between April 2024 and September 2024 (per Reuters) Besides Panasonic, Tesla has indicated they will include LG Energy Solution and CATL in sourcing 4680 batteries. But we don't have any specifics.

Tesla is still making 4680s at Keto Road, as well as a pilot line at Austin, but has not yet transferred full production to GigaTexas, as originally planned. It appears they have not yet smoothed out the energy density challenges yet.

According to Tesla's latest report on 4680 cells, the electric carmaker was producing 868,000 units of these cells per week. This would barely be enough to make 1,000 Model Y battery packs, and Giga Texas alone recently reached a weekly production rate of 5,000 Model Ys.

Even if Tesla discontinued using 4680's in the Model Ys coming out of Texas, and diverted all those 4680s to CyberTrucks, the #s don't add up to be enough to supply the CyberTruck goals for 2024.


Where do you think Tesla will get enough 4680s for the first year of production of the CyberTruck?

Elon did say that he projects selling 250,000 CyberTrucks per year (maybe more), but of course that does not mean Tesla will hit that # in 2024. Could Tesla throttle CyberTruck in 2024 to say 100,000 units because of the supply constraint on batteries?

I don't see them offering a 500+ mile version anytime soon, unfortunately. The 2170s in the MY have had much better energy density vs the 4680 models and with the CT needing a larger pack, I don't see how that math works out while still retaining the point of the CT; a well equipped truck at a better price.

They have talked in the past about transitioning to a higher nickel chemistry for the 4680 use in CTs, but I haven't read about that starting yet. Hopefully once this change occurs Panasonic can jump on board to help with production.

 

[TexasRaider]

. . From the factory. . (Not sure what you’re asking for since we’re not from the future. .)
Current information point to originate from Texas since the truck will be produced right next to that plant. (Does it matter?)
Are we just posting random questions on here for small talk? . .

 

[intimidator]

. . From the factory. . (Not sure what you’re asking for since we’re not from the future. .)
Current information point to originate from Texas since the truck will be produced right next to that plant. (Does it matter?)
Are we just posting random questions on here for small talk? . .

Where Tesla gets its 4680 batteries does matter.
Tesla has not finished ramping up 4680 development or production at the GigaTexas factory, so they may have to turn to outside suppliers.
Which could affect how many CyberTrucks they can build....at least in 2024.
By 2025 we would hope Tesla can make the 4680s, to the specs they are striving for, themselves.

 

[Baldey]

Been watching Giga Texas construction videos twice a week or so for the last couple months, and the cathode plant is looking like it will be operational in time for the start of production. If not, its gonna be close.

Whatever supply they may need for the very limited initial run, could be taken from the current Model Y supply. But my prediction is that next year, there will not be enough CTs made to use up all of the cells coming out of Texas. Extras will go to the Ys produced there, and maybe even shipped back to California to supplement their Semi line...

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