Who really wants to know what the CT final specs and features are going to be? The OEMS.

[GnarlyDudeLive]

If you think prospective customers are eagerly waiting for final CT specs, imagine how badly the OEM competition is waiting, lol.

The OEM's are totally left in the dark at this point and unable to even plan for what they need to compete against.

I am going to predict a few of the toughest challenges the OEM's could be up against and in the order I believe is the greatest impact.

1. CHARGING SPEED. With the new cells and the dynamics of enhanced heat management and shortened electrical paths baked into them we could see a rather large speed increase in charging. I believe this could take OEM's a few years to even catch up to. Note: we could see a preview of this when the new Model Y releases as a good gauge of the impact. I see this as one of the largest values for convincing people on the fence to make the EV switch and more so for the folks that may not be all that EV savvy.

2. The obvious one is RANGE. This really boils down to the structural battery pack as a whole. At the same total energy storage values, Tesla is going to have far better weight to power ratio so the same max storage is going to propel the vehicle for a longer duration or range. Throw in a dash of Octovalve (maybe even a newer or enhanced version?) and some very low aero drag numbers and the range continues to climb.

3. PERFORMANCE. If rear wheel steering comes to fruition on every CT produced I would not be surprised if towing specs increase by a measurable amount. The CT is not going to have a incredible top speed thus the gearing is likely going to be much lower than the Plaid powertrain is in Model S. Could we see torque numbers in the 1200-1300 ft lbs range if HP is brought down to 800 or so? We also have to remember that full power from the new carbon wrapped motors has not actually been OTA released yet (as I understand it), I believe they are holding some power back while they field test further to see where they can break it at.

4. TECH. I am not even going to guess at this one. This is the easiest one to hold under wraps as its not as easy to physically glean from seeing a CT at a testing site.

5. DURABILITY. Action backs words here. If the battery life is as good as we/they think it is and along with the durability of the motors, could we see industry leading warranty on the drive train? Warranty matters as nobody wants to still be paying on a vehicle loan while also paying to repair the same vehicle.

Your thoughts?

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[Crissa]

I don't believe we'll see much if any of a jump in charging speed. The 4680s will have to fight their larger size vs the ease of cooling them. With each model, though, the thermal management system has gotten better.

I do think we'll see a slight difference between the gearing of the powertrain vs the other Tesla models. But I doubt it'll be apparent until we get a teardown, which will be months after the launch.

I think the tech we'll see that's special is the four-wheel steering and the adjustable ride. No one else is planning that except in super-trucks to be their cap stone.

And I think Aero will come out ahead of where calculations found it.

-Crissa

 

[Hunter Sawyer]

I don't believe we'll see much if any of a jump in charging speed. The 4680s will have to fight their larger size vs the ease of cooling them. With each model, though, the thermal management system has gotten better.

The tabless design will also help with the thermal management.

 

[GnarlyDudeLive]

The tabless design will also help with the thermal management.

That is what I understand as well. Meaning electrons flowing into the battery needs to flow over far less of the battery (or distance) to charge it thus keeping the battery cooler for longer and the charge rate higher for longer durations resulting in a much improved charged time. The addition of the tabless design also allows more and wider thermal contact points into the internal structure of the battery to allow for more efficient cooling as well. I would anticipate it could also mean that the battery structure could be prepared quicker for a charge as well when needed or required.

 

[Ogre]

Also, weight. I know it’s mostly covered in your comment on performance, but I think it’s an under-appreciated spec. It effects acceleration, cornering, and off road performance a ton. The other big thing it effects is whether it’s a heavy or a light truck.

There are also a lot of questions around what it’s going to be like to use on a daily basis.

How comfortable will it be? The Ram is the current champion here, but the Cybertruck’s adjustable suspension might give it the upper hand.

Also, Utility.. People know and understand what a pickup does. The Cybertruck tweaks that formula in a lot of ways it’s going to be tough to see how that pans out until there are actual trucks in the hands of owners putting them to use. If it’s A+ in every other way, but not great as a work truck, it’s appeal will be limited. (I think it’ll do fine, just wanted to point out it’s still a bit of an unknown)

 

[Ogre]

Ooops… forgot the absolutely scariest thing about the Cybertruck from an OEM perspective.

Scale. How many of these things will be on the road by the time they have their EV platforms built?

I suspect OEMs have nightmares about this. Except for Mary Barra who is either doesn’t understand the market or is just stalling until she can take a golden parachute to retirement.

 

[Crissa]

Tabless just balances out the greater mass of the batteries. It's a wash, basically.

-Crissa

 

[SpaceYooper]

5. DURABILITY. Action backs words here. If the battery life is as good as we/they think it is and along with the durability of the motors, could we see industry leading warranty on the drive train? Warranty matters as nobody wants to still be paying on a vehicle loan while also paying to repair the same vehicle.

I'm 100% looking for a better warranty then what is currently offered. Having a car/truck battery that lasts for 1M miles isn't much use if it has to be charged every 20 miles. This is an exaggeration. I'm just pointing out that I've heard people comment about 1M mile batteries without details about what that means. Does it mean it will last for 1M miles before I will no longer get 70% of the stated range...I've never heard anyone try to argue that's what it means. Nor do I think the 4680s are actually the 1M mile battery.) The range is what I'm paying for, so I really do expect that range to be available for the duration of my ownership, or at least 15 years. I can't imagine an ICE truck owner (I've been one my entire driving life) being OK with losing 20%-30% of their range after 7-10 years, without said owner making a choice/compromise to lose that range...like when they put on a lift and 37" tires on a truck that came stock with 32" tires. I don't have a problem with this. It's their decision. But to lose significant range in the first decade of ownership because the batteries aren't good enough to maintain the range I paid for, is not a compromise I'm willing to accept. Acceptance becomes more tolerable as the charging network grows significantly and if/when battery replacement becomes economical and achievable. I'm not sure how a structural pack effects replacement achievability.

I know someone will say the warranties are conservative and that most of the batteries do better then their stated warranty. Well I should hope so; that is the norm for all warranties.

 

[GnarlyDudeLive]

I can't imagine an ICE truck owner (I've been one my entire driving life) being OK with losing 20%-30% of their range after 7-10 years, ....

From: https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tes...at-will-last-a-million-miles-are-already-here

Back in October, the head of Tesla's battery research team, Jeff Dahn, shared some details of his research during an Energy Storage & Sustainable Engineering videoconference. Dahn revealed that, after three years of testing, he found that his cells had a lifespan of over two million miles. He has tested his battery over 20,000 cycles at a depth of charge-discharge of 100%, and found that his battery can last 15,000 cycles and still have 90% of its capacity. If we multiply 15,000 by his estimated driving range of 217 miles, we get 3.25 million miles in the worst-case scenario, which is when the battery fully discharged and charged every cycle. Therefore, Tesla's progress in obtaining a battery that lasts a million miles is obvious.

 

[Ogre]

I can't imagine an ICE truck owner (I've been one my entire driving life) being OK with losing 20%-30% of their range after 7-10 years, without said owner making a choice/compromise to lose that range

I haven’t had an ICE vehicle last more than 300k miles without some major ($3000+) repair at some point. Maybe you’ve had better luck. If so…

Take all the money you would pay on maintenance - oil changes, belts, transmission service, brake changes, radiator flushes, etc etc etc… put that money into a savings account. By the time the battery life drops below 80%, you will have enough money saved to replace your battery. You will likely have thousands left over afterwards.

Though I really don’t think replacing the battery at 70-80% is the best choice. Sell the truck and use the money to get a new one. While you might not find a truck with 80% of it’s battery capacity useful, a lot of others will. You will almost certainly *still* be ahead of the game versus paying for ICE maintenance over the same 10+ year period.

 

[Cyberman]

If you think prospective customers are eagerly waiting for final CT specs, imagine how badly the OEM competition is waiting, lol.

The OEM's are totally left in the dark at this point and unable to even plan for what they need to compete against.

I am going to predict a few of the toughest challenges the OEM's could be up against and in the order I believe is the greatest impact.

1. CHARGING SPEED. With the new cells and the dynamics of enhanced heat management and shortened electrical paths baked into them we could see a rather large speed increase in charging. I believe this could take OEM's a few years to even catch up to. Note: we could see a preview of this when the new Model Y releases as a good gauge of the impact. I see this as one of the largest values for convincing people on the fence to make the EV switch and more so for the folks that may not be all that EV savvy.

2. The obvious one is RANGE. This really boils down to the structural battery pack as a whole. At the same total energy storage values, Tesla is going to have far better weight to power ratio so the same max storage is going to propel the vehicle for a longer duration or range. Throw in a dash of Octovalve (maybe even a newer or enhanced version?) and some very low aero drag numbers and the range continues to climb.

3. PERFORMANCE. If rear wheel steering comes to fruition on every CT produced I would not be surprised if towing specs increase by a measurable amount. The CT is not going to have a incredible top speed thus the gearing is likely going to be much lower than the Plaid powertrain is in Model S. Could we see torque numbers in the 1200-1300 ft lbs range if HP is brought down to 800 or so? We also have to remember that full power from the new carbon wrapped motors has not actually been OTA released yet (as I understand it), I believe they are holding some power back while they field test further to see where they can break it at.

4. TECH. I am not even going to guess at this one. This is the easiest one to hold under wraps as its not as easy to physically glean from seeing a CT at a testing site.

5. DURABILITY. Action backs words here. If the battery life is as good as we/they think it is and along with the durability of the motors, could we see industry leading warranty on the drive train? Warranty matters as nobody wants to still be paying on a vehicle loan while also paying to repair the same vehicle.

Your thoughts?

I think this may be the real reason "in a month or so" never happened.

 

[AC_CyberT]

I am fine with Tesla not releasing the Specs until the CT is ready for production. What they need to do is to prioritize the CT release before the OEM catchup and they lose customers. 4680s should remain exclusively to CT and Tesla Semis until they ram up production. Upgrade the Model Y with 4680s should remain last. The Model y is an excellent vehicle at it is now.

 

[Ogre]

I am fine with Tesla not releasing the Specs until the CT is ready for production. What they need to do is to prioritize the CT release before the OEM catchup and they lose customers. 4680s should remain exclusively to CT and Tesla Semis until they ram up production. Upgrade the Model Y with 4680s should remain last. The Model y is an excellent vehicle at it is now.

The Model Y -> 4680 upgrade is happening as soon as Tesla can get enough cells out of Fremont. Cybertruck production needs about 2-3 times more cells and doesn’t really make sense until Texas 4680 production is online sometime later this year.

Looking at what GM considers state of the art with the Hummer, Tesla has plenty of time to get the Cybertruck dialed in. Ford’s sophomore effort with the F-150 Lightning should be fascinating, but I don’t think they will be in a hurry to produce them at a loss.

 

[Bill906]

I can't imagine an ICE truck owner (I've been one my entire driving life) being OK with losing 20%-30% of their range after 7-10 years...

My '86 Buick Regal got a small rust hole in it's gas tank just above the seam in the middle of the tank. I could no longer put more than 1/2 a tanks worth in it. Lost half my range.

 

[GnarlyDudeLive]

I think this may be the real reason "in a month or so" never happened.

That is my suspension as well. I do not believe Tesla wants to show its hand yet to the competitors. Although at this stage of the game and the commitments that the OEM's have made into their EV truck projects, I do not believe they can change gears much once Tesla fully announces the specs.

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