Will Cybertruck Deliveries To Later Reservation Holders Take as Long as Expected?

Julien

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I don't really feel like writing an essay on this, so I'll keep this relatively short and sweet.

- By the time of production, the Model 3 had over 500,000 orders, around 450,000 orders actually went through.

- It obviously didn't take years to fulfill all of those orders because people have been free to buy Model 3s for years even if they hadn't placed orders before production started.

- Since 2018, about 1,000,000 Model 3s have been produced.

- It is rumored that the Cybertruck has 1,000,000 preorders, however, the cost to preorder a Cybertruck is only $100 (far less than the Model 3 (I assume, I can't actually find what the preorder price was on it, if you know please do share)), meaning that a 10 year old could afford to preorder a Cybertruck. This probably means that many people ordered Cybertrucks just to say they did and a large percentage of CT order's won't actually go through.

- The Model 3 was built it a small and cramped part of Fremont, while the Cybertruck will have a factory the size of Rhode Island to be built in and to build it's batteries. Furthermore, the Cybertruck is supposedly going to have a pilot production line to iron out any wrinkles before production is scheduled to start, so production should be even quicker.

In conclusion, even if the Cybertruck has 800 k - 1 million preorders, it shouldn't take more than a couple of years to fulfill those orders like I previously thought. That should be good news for the people who just ordered their Cybertrucks.
 

Crissa

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That's what I hope. Tesla's learned the lessons. Their constraints are batteries now, hence all the things they're doing to shrink he battery factories down so they can double their output again and again.

-Crissa
 

CyberMoose

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Obviously it's impossible to confirm how long it will take but I do believe Tesla will be making hundreds of thousands of Cybertrucks per year. Some people think it'll be more complicated to build or that it'll take longer because it's a truck but I don't think this will be the case. The Cybertruck line will probably be physically bigger due to it's size but overall it should have less steps to build. Sandy Munro went into a lot of detail about how they are making it easier to produce on his youtube channel. The cybertruck will have an exoskeleton instead of panels on a frame, it'll have a battery to be the bottom of the truck. The amount of parts that the Cybertruck will have will be less than a traditional truck and I suspect they will be easier to piece together.

But with so many preorders, in the truck market which is already massive in north america, I suspect there will be a very high demand if the Cybertruck lives up to it's expectations. It's over a million now, even if half of the people canceled theirs, i think it'll quickly climb back up to a million after reviews, youtube videos, and just in person sightings of this magnificent truck.

If you have a Cybertruck ordered after the one million mark, i suspect it will take around 3-4 years to get it, maybe 2 if a ton of people canceled. I'm hoping to have mine by late next year, early 2022 at the latest (hopefully), and i didn't take long to preorder.
 
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