Will "Joe the Contractor" buy the CT?

[Johnelrod12]

I have a 2007 F150 XLT now that has a ramp rack (Look it up, ramprack.com) on the back for our lawn care business. I ordered the Cybertruck back in 2019 because of the ramp and other obvious reasons. If the CT doesn’t have the ramp then I will have to get a trailer and I definitely don’t want to do that. Harder to park, takes up room and HOA won’t allow me to park in driveway. I plan on going all electric with the mowers and weed eaters and blowers so me being a contractor, the ramp and other adds on will be a must.

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[kbolt]

I don't think it needs to compete with an ice F150. It needs to compete with the electric versions of trucks because a lot of places are banning the sale of gas cars in a few years. When your only option is electric then the CT will likely be the best choice.

 

[kbolt]

I'll also add that there are enough initial reservation holders to satisfy demand for a few years. As more people see the CT the orders will continue to come in. As more "Average Joe" workers see it they will also add to the demand queue. And finally, when ice vehicles are banned there will be another big wave. I think Tesla will sell every CT they can make for at least a decade.

 

[Baldey]

Pretty sure Europe > California, but i agree with the gist of your post.

 

[kbolt]

But also what happens to resale value of a gas car before the banning happens? If you're looking to buy a new car in 2030 and you think you might only have it for 5 years then you might believe it will be impossible to sell, or there might be a group of people that vehemently oppose electric and want to buy a dirtier and interior product just to make a statement. So maybe the price goes up for resale value of used ice cars. But how many people are going to take that chance.

So even though the CA Ban goes into effect in 2035 it should have implications leading up to it since car ownership has longer time horizons than most other products.

 

[cvalue13]

If you're looking to buy a new car in 2030 and you think you might only have it for 5 years then you might believe it will be impossible to sell,

not sure i follow why you think it will be impossible to sell?

the CA law *bans* the sale of new vehicles by manufacturers, with point of sale within CA.

It does not ban people from owning and driving conventional vehicles, or from selling them on the used market, or from driving to Nevada to purchase, or even from having a new gas car delivered from out of state.

 

[HaulingAss]

I don't think it needs to compete with an ice F150. It needs to compete with the electric versions of trucks because a lot of places are banning the sale of gas cars in a few years. When your only option is electric then the CT will likely be the best choice.

By the time the bans on the sale of new ICE trucks go into effect, only fringe buyers will want to spend their hard-earned money on a gas truck anyway. The bans are only helpful in that they get short-sighted people thinking about what will happen organically anyway, due to economic considerations.

Gas vehicles will not be able to compete in terms of price/capability/convenience and the biggest benefit will be the much lower lifetime ownership cost of an EV truck.

 

[GlockandRoll]

In time, yes, I would imagine they will.
But it's going to be a long time before that happens.

 

[BayouCityBob]

Not sure where you guys live, but in my world "Joe Contractor" rarely buys new vehicles and it is even rarer for him to buy new work trucks. JC buys used pickups from big fleets or more often buys 5-10 year old trucks from urban commuters / weekend home depot guys. The owner of a contracting business may buy new vehicles but they do not do a lot of heavy work. The big company fleet service guys buy new trucks (Oil Field services, utilities, etc.) which eventually get resold to Joe Contractor.

So yes, JC will buy the Cybertruck in 2030 when used ones start hitting the market in big numbers.

 

[rudedawg78]

I don't think it needs to compete with an ice F150. It needs to compete with the electric versions of trucks because a lot of places are banning the sale of gas cars in a few years. When your only option is electric then the CT will likely be the best choice.

I understand where you are coming from. However, it will be quite a long time before you only see EVs on the road and no ICE vehicles. For now, I think the CT needs to disrupt the ICE truck market, therefore they need to compete with them. When there are only EVs on the road, then I am sure the Cybertruck 2035 edition will lead above all competition! It will most certainly have a passthrough by then.

 

[firsttruck]

I don't think it needs to compete with an ice F150. It needs to compete with the electric versions of trucks because a lot of places are banning the sale of gas cars in a few years. When your only option is electric then the CT will likely be the best choice.

The whole mission is to accelerate the transition from ICE to EVs.

Competing only against other EVs is not Tesla's goal.

 

[FarAway]

That's pretty funny and short-sighted.

The Cybertruck doesn't have a bed mounted accessory diesel fuel tank? You need to understand that far less than 1% of all F-150's have accessory diesel fuel tanks mounted in the bed! And there is nothing from preventing the mounting of one in the Cybertruck should the owner want that. Your post reads like it was written by someone trying to throw shade on the Cybertruck without having any good ammunition.

As to bed access over the sides of the vault, I used our F-150 4x4 over the weekend for some alpine exploring and wild berry-picking. The cooler went in the bed, along with some backpacks and other gear. The only way to access any of it was by climbing up into the bed! Because the sides of the bed are too high and the bed is so high I can barely reach past the tailgate hinges (and I'm 6'-04" tall).

However, the Cybertruck suspension will lower, making it possible to reach over the bed sides into the middle of the bed and it will also be possible to access further forward in the bed, over the end of the tailgate, due to the lower bed height. If I do have to climb into the bed, it will be much easier due to the much lower height of the bed floor.

Diesel fuel tanks for filling jobsite equipment is something you might see on a heavy-duty pick-up, it's still a small part of the overall truck market and almost unheard of on a 1/2-ton class work truck. Tesla is aiming the release edition(s) of the Cybertruck at the heart of the 1/2 ton truck market, not every concievable specialty need. If it can replace even 20% of the 1/2 ton market, it would be the best selling 1/2 ton truck in the entire world!

Your concerns are silly to the extreme.

"Silly" me, I defer to your obviously superior knowledge about what contractors are looking for in a pickup.

Granted, I have never used one of my work pickups for "wild berry picking" or "alpine exploring".... probably just too dang busy on the jobsite.... Just a wild guess, but you don't get your hands dirty at work, do you??

 

[Crissa]

By the time the bans on the sale of new ICE trucks go into effect, only fringe buyers will want to spend their hard-earned money on a gas truck anyway. The bans are only helpful in that they get short-sighted people thinking about what will happen organically anyway, due to economic considerations.

Gas vehicles will not be able to compete in terms of price/capability/convenience and the biggest benefit will be the much lower lifetime ownership cost of an EV truck.

Yeah.

On the electric motorcycle chat today, one of the riders - who bought a brand new, ￡20k Zero SR/F, and a couple years later, calculating all his costs vs his last two gas bikes: It is already at the same cost/miles as the gas bikes. It's on a path to beat them by more than half.

And that's a motorcycle that costs 2x as much as an ICE model! Once batteries are cheaper - and right now there's calculations that all the projects being built now will do that - and ICE is going to be done-zo.

-Crissa

 

[anionic1]

Mostly, money talks. Right now that F150 is about $45k. And those guys are used to paying for gas. As far as features go, the CT appears that it will be pretty basic. And having seen most of the recent images and videos I think Tesla nailed it in simplicity which really is what a lot of work truck guys need. Obviously the EV aspect will be scary for many ICE truckers but i think Teslas durability and longevity have been proven and will continue to shine.

I think the vault cover will be a seller for many work truck guys but that is an easily added option for current trucks and the vault is harder to access in the CT so i think that will be a deterrent. I also think the CT will quickly have many work accessory options like ladder racks and tool boxes etc. so as far as functionality goes I think the CT will be very close to an F150

I think the range will not be an option as long as people can get decent charge at home. if you ask a worker that got in at 5am to stop by a charger and charge for 30 min on their way home i dont think that will go over well. but i think in general the range will be accepted just fine because most workers are not travelling more than 100 miles each way. They will pay about 50% of the fuel cost and many workers will really feel that savings which is going to be huge. The silicon valley guys may not feel $100 a week in fuel savings but the guys making $20-$30/hour sure will.

The durability of the truck is an interesting topic because a lot of work trucks are expected to get a little dirty and beat up. Most workers are not too concerned about cosmetic damage so i dont think the stainless will be a huge selling point for work truckers. I think some more egocentric work truckers will like pulling up in stainless as a wow factor so there is that and some will greatly appreciate the stainless. i do think the stainless is going to be harder to maintain than paint in the short term but will last a lot longer in the long term. I dont think the average work trucker will care about that. I think the long term owner will care more about the stainless, which may be fruitless if the batteries are struggling after 15 years, which is when paint generally starts to fail. So what good is shiny stainless if people are needing to spend $25k to replace their CT battery.

My current ford work truck is going on 20 years and i have done a lot of engine work but not $25k and the white paint is holding up great. For me the main selling point is the overall carbon footprint reduction and the example i set for my kids. I am looking forward to the fuel savings as i put a lot of solar on my house, the tow capacity and hopefully the general durability of the truck. I work for a large general contractor as an estimator and i have rental property and i am a crazy weekend warrior so i will use the truck a lot. I am hoping to replace both my work sedan (better mileage) and my work truck with one CT. probably get rid of my motorcycle as well, which i also mostly keep for fuel savings.

If the CT is more than $65k, which will be about $1100 per month, vs. $45k, which would be about $800 per month assuming a 5% apr and 10% down. I think most workers are going to struggle to go above the $1k per month mark for their payment. If they are saving $300/month in gas that makes sense. Many people make decisions based on the monthly payment. I don't think Tesla will care to capture the work trucker market up front and I keep saying that the seems to be leaning more toward the silicon valley IT weekend mountain biker. And i would guess they are going to try to get more up front based on the high demand. But fortunately for us they lowballed the initial reveal pricing so hopefully that puts pressure on them to keep the cost down up front and give everyone better opportunity to buy the truck.

Those are my long winded thoughts. cvalue13, i expect a thoughtful meme response.

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