Will "Joe the Contractor" buy the CT?

[kbolt]

The whole mission is to accelerate the transition from ICE to EVs.

Competing only against other EVs is not Tesla's goal.

What I'm getting at is that the early CT doesn't need to compete with anything really. There are so many pre orders that they have a multi year backlog. People who are on the fence will order the CT before the backlog clears out after seeing it in person and on YouTube from the 2 million pre-orders that convert. They probably don't need to compete with anything until 2030 just due to these two groups.

Without even considering the upcoming bans and only looking at the exponential ev adoption curve, by 2030 there could be 50% or more EVs on the road. At that point, and probably a lot sooner, most people will not think ice trucks are competitive.

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[tidmutt]

I have a 2007 F150 XLT now that has a ramp rack (Look it up, ramprack.com) on the back for our lawn care business. I ordered the Cybertruck back in 2019 because of the ramp and other obvious reasons. If the CT doesn’t have the ramp then I will have to get a trailer and I definitely don’t want to do that. Harder to park, takes up room and HOA won’t allow me to park in driveway. I plan on going all electric with the mowers and weed eaters and blowers so me being a contractor, the ramp and other adds on will be a must.

Totally off topic, but do you know anything about the current crop of robotic lawnmowers? Are they any good?

 

[bwhntr78]

What I'm getting at is that the early CT doesn't need to compete with anything really. There are so many pre orders that they have a multi year backlog. People who are on the fence will order the CT before the backlog clears out after seeing it in person and on YouTube from the 2 million pre-orders that convert. They probably don't need to compete with anything until 2030 just due to these two groups.

Without even considering the upcoming bans and only looking at the exponential ev adoption curve, by 2030 there could be 50% or more EVs on the road. At that point, and probably a lot sooner, most people will not think ice trucks are competitive.

That multi-year backlog will disappear very quickly if the truck isn't priced at least close to reveal pricing. With the exception of a very small percentage of the population that just wants the CT and will buy it at any cost, the CT is actually competing with everything. The competition is whatever the individual buying the CT is also considering. Could be an ICE truck, could be a model y, could be an odyssey (for those that NEED 6 seats + cargo).

 

[Coolbreeze704]

Totally off topic, but do you know anything about the current crop of robotic lawnmowers? Are they any good?

Wait a few years and Optimus will take care of the lawn for you and much more.

 

[sstevens805]

I don't think 'Joe the Contractor' will be buying CT's for a variety of reasons. Pricing is unknown, shape of the bed & the move to an EV will require habits to be changed to start. Once contractors start seeing the benefits then they'll move over dragging their heels. The CT is a niche vehicle, and I am okay with that. I don't see it displacing ICE trade vehicles anytime soon without the gov't forcing it on us. Once that happens, they'll gravitate towards their brand of choice. In this crowd brand loyalty is a real thing
.

 

[Crissa]

TCO is lower for an EV, tho.

https://thedriven.io/2023/04/27/tes...xt=Tesla says that the total,46 per mile ($A0.

People who won't think, just, won't think.

-Crissa

 

[FutureBoy]

TCO is lower for an EV, tho.

https://thedriven.io/2023/04/27/tesla-model-3-total-cost-of-ownership-similar-to-toyota-corolla-over-5-years/#:~:text=Tesla says that the total,46 per mile ($A0.

People who won't think, just, won't think.

-Crissa

And EV costs are getting cheaper. Won’t be long before the initial sale price of comparable EV is cheaper than ICE. And TCO from there will also still be cheaper on the EV side.

 

[PilotPete]

And EV costs are getting cheaper. Won’t be long before the initial sale price of comparable EV is cheaper than ICE. And TCO from there will also still be cheaper on the EV side.

And think about the contractor that takes EM up on his offer and has 4+ superchargers installed in his parking lot. Cheap and quick charging for the crews, no gas needed, costs keep shrinking.

 

[madquadbiker]

But also what happens to resale value of a gas car before the banning happens? If you're looking to buy a new car in 2030 and you think you might only have it for 5 years then you might believe it will be impossible to sell, or there might be a group of people that vehemently oppose electric and want to buy a dirtier and interior product just to make a statement. So maybe the price goes up for resale value of used ice cars. But how many people are going to take that chance.

So even though the CA Ban goes into effect in 2035 it should have implications leading up to it since car ownership has longer time horizons than most other products.

Maybe trying to find a filling station that’s still operating will become a thing, just like a lack of charging points at the moment, I wonder what year the seesaw will tip over that point.

 

[almostakeeper]

The cybertruck will NOT be a mainstay for sub contractors. The folks that actually get their hands dirty pouring concrete, framing , electrical, plumbing, etc. The most used style is the van with the high roof vans gaining ground as people upgrade their work truck. The cybertruck should be just fine for contractors, supervisors and the like.

 

[firsttruck]

Maybe trying to find a filling station that’s still operating will become a thing, just like a lack of charging points at the moment, I wonder what year the seesaw will tip over that point.

Yup, it will be increasing harder for ICE vehicle owners to find fueling stations and the prices will be higher due to lose of economies of scale and under utilization of huge capital assets ( refineries, pipelines, tankers, etc).

The number of fuel stations has been declining for over 20 years. This decline started many years before even the first mass market EV even shipped, 2010 Nissan Leaf.

Low profit, costly pollution control systems, and cost of environmental clean-up from leaks/spills.

Just like every decade ICE cars, trucks, buses air pollution controls become tighter & more expensive the fuel stations need not only air pollution controls but extensive fuel leak/spill detection/capture systems for fuel tanks, pumps, pipes systems which are costly. When a spill/leak actually occurs it can cost the owners many million $ even though the actual profit on selling fuels is small.


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When gas stations run out of gas
Don't be surprised to see more filling stations with empty pumps due to gas retailers' margins getting squeezed.
June 17, 2008
By David Welch
https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna25214948

.....
Plenty of filling stations have already gone under.
In the mid-1990s, there were more than 200,000 stations in the U.S.
In just the year 2007, 3,184 of the nation's 164,292 gasoline stations closed their doors and went out of business ...

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A Clean New Life for Grimy Gas Stations
Thousands of gas stations have closed in the last 20 years, leaving vacant properties at busy corners that can be attractive locations for new businesses.
10 jul 2012
The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com ›

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$12 billion tab to remove leaky gasoline tanks It will cost at least $12 billion to clean up contamination from tens of thousands of gasoline storage tanks that are leaking underground, congressional auditors say.
Feb. 23, 2007
Source: The Associated Press
https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna17299268

.....
It will cost at least $12 billion to clean up contamination from tens of thousands of gasoline storage tanks that are leaking underground, congressional auditors say.
.....
The Environmental Protection Agency, which oversees the cleanups, has already spent more than $10 billion to reduce the contamination over the past 20 years caused by hundreds of thousands of leaking tanks, many of them found at gas stations and convenience stores.

Yet some 117,000 faulty tanks still await cleanups, according to the latest figures current as of September 2005.

The GAO's $12 billion estimate would pay to remove 54,000 leaks from underground storage tanks that are either abandoned or no one can be held accountable for cleaning up. Another 63,000 leaking tanks would be paid for by pump stations, store owners or other operators of the leaking tanks, along with insurers and state funds, according to the GAO.

16,700 new leaks expected The problem is growing, however. Forty-three states said they expect to find 16,700 new leaks in the next five years, many requiring at least some federal money for the cleanups.

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Exxon fined $4 million for gas leak ... of the Environment for a 26,000-gallon gasoline spill at a Baltimore County service station almost three years ago.
17 sept 2008
Baltimore Sun
https://www.baltimoresun.com › b...

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European retailer Tesco fined £8m after petrol leak made residents ill
Tesco has been fined £8m, split between fines for health and safety and environmental offences, after a leak at one of its petrol stations ...
21 jun 2017 —
British Safety Council
https://www.britsafe.org › tesco-fi...

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22 Ohio Valley gas stations included in $33M lawsuit against BP
... more than $33.3 million in reimbursement to clean up leaks from BP-owned underground storage tanks in Ohio including at 22 locations here in the Valley.
mar 2015 —
WFMJ.com
https://www.wfmj.com › story ›

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Economics of a gas station Why owners would rather sell food than fuel.
March 10, 2022
By Martha C. White
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/economics-gas-station-rcna19516

.....
For gas station owners like Nordman who has 3 stations in West Texas metro area of Midland-Odessa, the real money will almost never come from the pump.

Station owners make most of their profits in their stores, on sales of food and drinks, as well as alcohol where sales are legal.

“The idea is to have a very competitive gas price, and when they go in the store, you can make money off that transaction,” Lenard said. He said a recent survey by the convenience store association found that almost 60 percent of people who come for gas also go inside the store.

Nordman said he hasn’t noticed customers’ curbing their spending at his stores when they fill up, but he’s bracing for it. “Eighty percent of the transactions are credit card transactions. … It will eventually hit the consumer when that credit card bill comes in,” he said. “That’s when I think we will see it.”

And station owners are being hit by inflation and product shortages just like small businesses everywhere. Wholesale prices for coffee to toilet paper to beef jerky have soared over the past several months, and labor prices are also climbing.

“On pretty much everything, we’ve seen a 20 percent increase on our costs,” Nordman said. He said some snack food makers were adjusting their wholesale prices so often that he stopped putting price tags on the items.

But he’s found a way to offset some of the price hikes: fire up the grill. The markup on hot foods like pizza and burgers can be as high as 30 percent. “I want the guy that’s buying fuel to come in and buy a hamburger from me,” he said. “A good kitchen person will have onions on that grill whether they’ve got customers or not.”

Normand’s been in the business for seven years, and he said his stores have built a good reputation as places to get a hot meal, which keeps his customers coming back. “That’s how the mom-and-pop businesses have to distinguish themselves from the corporate stores,” he said. “In the gas station business, you need to be in the hot food business.”

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[HaulingAss]

"Silly" me, I defer to your obviously superior knowledge about what contractors are looking for in a pickup.

Granted, I have never used one of my work pickups for "wild berry picking" or "alpine exploring".... probably just too dang busy on the jobsite.... Just a wild guess, but you don't get your hands dirty at work, do you??

You don't know me, I have used work pickups my entire working life in a variety of jobs, including commercial landscaping, commercial fishing that's how we get our 1/4 mile long purse seine net on the boat, as well as sea stores and a myriad of other gear. I've also worked for a family owned contractor/house builder, we usually had 3-4 houses under construction at any given time. That was before contractors were a bunch of pussies! Yes, read it and weep!

I also used pickups commercially for a weekly run to resupply a ski area restaurant, we used three Dodge Power Wagon 4x4's that were converted to run on propane and one "Jimmy" (GMC box truck). I would also shuttle other crewmembers up and down the mountain in the crew cab Power Wagon (loaded with empty beer and soda kegs). On the way up we would have full beer kegs, soda kegs, and frozen beef patties that usually put us at or over the payload limit (which had been increased with heavier springs). Fortunately, the tailgate lined up well with the loading dock which reduced the climbing up and down during unloading.

I've been retired for over 20 years now, I love four-wheeling in the alpine and the alpine berries have a flavor that is not available in any supermarket. The best berry patches are not easy to get to. I would have taken my Model 3 but it never would have made it on this particular trip with the condition of the rocky road and the load we were carrying. It does best lightly loaded and on less extreme terrain. Do you know of a better vehicle to use for such adventures? A Rivian R1T would have worked too but I don't have one. Ooops, that's a pickup too! I'm sorry if you think I used the wrong tool for the job. I use the same pickup to cut cord wood and haul remodelling materials. Is that wrong too? What I've noticed is the bed height of my 1/2 ton F-150 is considerably higher than the heavier duty pickups we used building homes, commercial fishing and landscaping commercially in the previous century.

I'm laughing my ass off! My story was illustrating how one use case will be made easier by the ability of the load bed of the Cybertruck to lower close to the ground. I've recently talked to a contractor who said he disliked how high the beds of trucks are these days, especially the 4x4 models most of them gravitate towards (ostensibly for the muddy construction sites).

I'm not sure what your real beef is because you didn't tell us, you just attacked my credentials without knowing my decades of blue-collar work history. That's embarrassing. Grow up and say something meaningful. Trying to position the Cybertruck as incapable of being a diesel depot doesn't cut it. It's non-sensical.

 

[HaulingAss]

Not sure where you guys live, but in my world "Joe Contractor" rarely buys new vehicles and it is even rarer for him to buy new work trucks. JC buys used pickups from big fleets or more often buys 5-10 year old trucks from urban commuters / weekend home depot guys. The owner of a contracting business may buy new vehicles but they do not do a lot of heavy work. The big company fleet service guys buy new trucks (Oil Field services, utilities, etc.) which eventually get resold to Joe Contractor.

So yes, JC will buy the Cybertruck in 2030 when used ones start hitting the market in big numbers.

Up here in Washington State the contractors tend to upgrade their trucks to new ones with surprising frequency. The successful ones don't have enough time to be shopping for used ones. They have big fuel bills too, so new trucks can help reduce that somewhat. It might not pay for the upgrade but they like to project a successful image - they are always looking for higher end jobs that have the most profit.

That's why I think Cybertruck will be popular with electrical contractors and electricians. In a few years, it's going to be hard to project that you are all about electricity while driving a stink-bomb gas or diesel truck!

 

[HaulingAss]

I understand where you are coming from. However, it will be quite a long time before you only see EVs on the road and no ICE vehicles. For now, I think the CT needs to disrupt the ICE truck market, therefore they need to compete with them. When there are only EVs on the road, then I am sure the Cybertruck 2035 edition will lead above all competition! It will most certainly have a passthrough by then.

New truck sales will reach close to 100% EV long before all the trucks on the road are all electric. Those polluting trucks will just keep on polluting. I won't be driving the old gas and diesel beaters, but they will still be out there, in gradually decreasing numbers, for decades.

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