I reserved on 1/16 and was 473,737 so it looks like reservations were coming in at the rate of about 1k per day between us. If that holds then the 500k number will get crossed sometime early next week.
I think there is a way we can backtest the theory that this is a simple sequential numbering system.
We need to find someone who has a RN that was created as close as possible to elons '250k tweet. So 11/26 around 9pm. Doing the math on their number should put it somewhere in that range...