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26 has the newest version of the 4680 cell with 973 chemistry (vs 955) with both anode and cathodes being dry (vs just anode). There is a very slight ~1-1.5% capacity increase and a wider thermal window. The cells react slightly better in cold temps (less snowflake) and when DC charging go about...

Another bump. Held 250 to 34% 200 to 39% and 150 to 50% this weekend. Still tweaking a tad.

The 955 CT cells (early ones) are worse than the 3/Y cells in the cold. They don't really like to charge below freezing and at 5-10-15f there is a noticeable difference. You'll see the snowflake a lot more in those (any time pack is below 45-50f). The new cells are 973 chemistry which pushed the...

There's no significant difference.... ~1%. Where manufacturing variation and any slight degradation make it essentially zero. LG (excluding newer M53 cell vehicles) and Panasonic pack 3/Ys have a larger variance between them (~3kWh).

FWIW these cells have been in the CT since the fall. The Y is getting them in the 8L battery, which confirms they are slightly more than 26ah cells. Pretty large progress over the gen 1 Y 4680 that was about 23ah. A bit over the early Cyber cell that was tiny bit under 26ah (25.8-25.9ish).

Many of those are just trims (all except YL really), but platform sharing can reach extremes. VW's MLB platform underpinned the Audi A4 all the way to the A8 to the Lambo Urus and Cayenne. The new PPC platform (2024 debut) is already Q5/7/9 and A5/6 with the expectation of extending to...

It happens to all of us! I've followed batteries for a long-time... and this whole change to the 46 series is just like the transition to the 18 and 21 series cells prior. It always starts off rough and then the industry figures it out around 3-5 years into the transition. We're going to have...

Purely financially, Tesla would make a lot more money deploying Cybercab and Robotaxi Ys themselves vs selling them if they have the markets to support Robotaxi. That's a big if and requires market expansion. If they cannot have the market expansion, the odds of selling Cybercab increase. If...

Regulatory compliance is a large factor and gov'ts are never fast. In NA we will see the robotaxi rollout quickly. We're probably, at a minimum, 4-5 years away from Europe even having a chance at Robotaxi at a wide scale (UK excluded, that will happen earlier since they aren't EU). China may...

Your worry is why I don't think it is realistic for near zero consumer sales. It might be the plan today, but it is unlikely to stay the plan. We've seen Tesla pivot a lot. They likely will with the goals being so lofty. The numbers around this signal they will have to. The 2500 cap will...

I stand corrected on Robotaxi deployment. They have it explicitly counted based on that definition in the 2nd pic. The math still maths with deployment. 11-12m is a huge hurdle. The first couple million will be quick (within 3 years), then it will tail off drastically to replacement rate...

Unless Robotaxi spins off, they wouldn't be counted as a customer. Doing so would tie it up in lawsuits that Tesla would likely lose. Other companies could be buying it (and I think will be). The commercial market isn't nearly as deep as people think. Hertz's whole fleet is 560k. Uber has 8.8m...

I would say this is an unlikely situation. Tesla needs to sell 20m cars to reach one of the Elon tranches and 10m FSD subscriptions for another. IMO a takerate of 50% overall is unlikely, so really need more than 20m in total sales... or ~11m more at minimum and with a reasonable take rate (and...

Nothing will. The large luxury sedan/SUV segment is one they simply won't be in. Not enough volume to justify the development costs. Long-term, consumer vehicle sales will be a smaller portion of the business. Still has to be for ~12m more vehicle sales... for reasons so a long tail.

It is the right decision financially. Costs too much in R&D to revamp the models for the amount they actually sell. Sucks to see them go from a nostalgia point of view. Now have to rest my hope in getting a Plaid Model 3 now... 🤞

Then you're doing nothing wrong. There is going to be variance and your BMS probably has some sway. Only real way to know full pack capacity is to charge to 100% and slowly discharge down to zero and see how much was pulled from the pack. IIRC Tesla took the public facing battery test out of...

Tesla randomly includes stuff like this in deliveries. Seen it with Ys and Ss randomly before too. It probably isn't a nationwide thing.

If you're charging to 100% all the time that would do it. ;) The mileage counter is pretty unreliable though. It can be off 3-4-5% without having anything be off at all.

This is amazingly timely. :ROFLMAO: These are the NC20 cells that have been in the CT the last few months. Rumor about skipping ended up being false (or is limited to Europe?). Berlin is currently building up their 4680 lines with the hopes of being ready for mass production by the end of the...

Only a very slight correction, the NC50 is a 2170 cell. It gets misreported a lot and lumped in with 4680s being planned, but it is a 2170 cell that is tabless, dry cathode, and silicon-carbon anode (~10% +/- 2). The NC30 cell is the same tech for the 4680 cell that will hit refresh CT at some...