Cybercab robotaxi news update! $25K Price, 5.5 mi/kWh efficiency, 2M/year production, no Model 2

[cardad]

Just given the regulatory uncertainty regarding L5 autonomy and in addition to that the historically poor accuracy of Elon’s forecasting of FSD timelines it seems like 2026 is absolutely unlikely for Cybertaxi production. Just add 4 years to that number and it sounds about right. Maybe by then we’ll see solid state batteries and other refinements to battery/charging tech.

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[charliemagpie]

Just recalling some snippets... only a few percent of sales are for 2-seaters, and over 95% of sales are 4+.

If Tesla wanted to sell 2 million to customers, the bears would be right, a small ATM. For private Use !!

But, as a privately owned taxi, single or fleet buyer, what is the TAM? Telsa can't make them fast enough.

Then the mind boggles at Tesla's income stream as they pump out 40,000 new taxis' every week.
Volume Taxi business begins in 2026 !!!!

 

[Woodrick]

Not really, FSD it could be a for subscription option only at whatever the going rate is at that time.

Since there is no steering wheel, how does it work without FSD?

 

[Woodrick]

Just given the regulatory uncertainty regarding L5 autonomy and in addition to that the historically poor accuracy of Elon’s forecasting of FSD timelines it seems like 2026 is absolutely unlikely for Cybertaxi production. Just add 4 years to that number and it sounds about right. Maybe by then we’ll see solid state batteries and other refinements to battery/charging tech.

Getting more worried/jealous, huh?

 

[GnarlyDudeLive]

Since there is no steering wheel, how does it work without FSD?

I am not understanding your question. FSD Subscription = FSD but just a monthly payment rather than a larger upfront purchase (with the chance to be cheaper over time).

I understand that the unboxed RoboTaxi will be cheaper to manufacture but find it still hard to believe that they will sell it for ~$25k-$30K with the FSD $8k upfront purchase included in that price. I also understand that Tesla will make some $ from taxi services on top as well but how will that work if it was purchased for personal use where fares are not being accumulated? Will personal use of the vehicle incur fare charges? Will it even be sold for personal use?

 

[Woodrick]

I am not understanding your question. FSD Subscription = FSD but just a monthly payment rather than a larger upfront purchase (with the chance to be cheaper over time).

I understand that the unboxed RoboTaxi will be cheaper to manufacture but find it still hard to believe that they will sell it for ~$25k-$30K with the FSD $8k upfront purchase included in that price. I also understand that Tesla will make some $ from taxi services on top as well but how will that work if it was purchased for personal use where fares are not being accumulated? Will personal use of the vehicle incur fare charges? Will it even be sold for personal use?

I believe that my question is quite self-explanatory.

If you think that Tesla is going to do something that way, then fine, your option.

You may want to do a little research on what Tesla has said about how the robotaxi service works.
If you want to place your person in robotaxi service, you just go to the app and hit the button as well as tell it when and where you want it back. Yes, Tesla takes a portion of the profits (like Uber and Lyft).

It's a pretty simple model as long as you don't rey to make it hard, which it seems you are doing.

This is not Tesla evolutionizing driving, this is Tesla revolutionzing driving. The way they did with Space and EVs.

 

[DaBagBoy]

It's not a copy. It has no steering wheel or pedals and cost is 25k so it is clearly different. I'm saying for 27k you could probably add two seats and get a wider market for a seemingly low fixed cost. For example, I don't envision many people who make 6 figures with kids buying a cybercab as it is not practical for their personal use and they likely wont want the headache of managing a lone autonomous Uber. The market for 2 seats cars are typically rich people looking for a performance vehicle so all I'm saying is a 2 seat option only for 25k doesn't seem to be a logical limitation you place on your own product.

Your logic would say why have a 7 seat model Y, they already have the X with 6 or 7 seats? Except the 7 seat model y taps a wider marker who want capacity at a lower price.

it's not at all like a 2 seat roadster, it's a two seat utility vehicle, purpose built for "rideshare" and can cover 90% of such "rideshare" trips, most Uber trips are one passenger, occasionally 2 if you need 2 or more you will order another S3XY car....or CT

The value proposition for the cybercab doesn't make much sense. You can get with tax rebate a model 3 for close to same price but you are not automatically tethered by fsd because you have pedals and a steering wheel. You can still use unsupervised fsd on any tesla so why buy one with no steering wheel or pedals that offers same autonomous tech? Why buy the cybercab for 4 k less but then if a camera breaks you can't use it at all because you can't manually drive it and fsd can't function if a camera is broken and oh by the way it only seats two people?

You want to pick your kid and his fiance up from the airport and go to dinner. You can't do it with cybercab and for only 4 k you could buy a 3.

I see the cybercab as a fleet lease play for people who want to undercut Uber with lower fixed costs. Remember Uber works well for the company not so well for the drivers:

https://www.businessinsider.com/is-driving-for-uber-worth-it-earning-strategies-gig-economy-2024-5

This is why I don't see people making 6 figures, which is 50% or more of Tesla customer base being tempted by cybercab. Maybe a newer demo will want it but if they are making less than 6 figures they likely can't afford two vehicles so once they turn off the ride hailing in the app and the cybercab is their personal vehicle they have two seats and no steering wheel or pedals.

I guess I'm the "exception" to most all of your presumptions....I am in the income category you mention and I don't want one. I want 12 of them!!! If my CT can actually move to LvL 4 or 5 I will order as many as I can possibly afford.....despite being near retirement I might even pull retirement money to make this my retirement business.

At less than 1/3 the UBER/TAXI cost this will change the world. (if / when it happens)

Just recalling some snippets... only a few percent of sales are for 2-seaters, and over 95% of sales are 4+.

If Tesla wanted to sell 2 million to customers, the bears would be right, a small ATM. For private Use !!

But, as a privately owned taxi, single or fleet buyer, what is the ATM? Telsa can't make them fast enough.

Then the mind boggles at Tesla's income stream as they pump out 40,000 new taxis' every week.
Volume Taxi business begins in 2026 !!!!

Wrong analogy in the first part, this is not that kind of car at all....your second part is far more accurate - this is something that us "FanBois" will scoop up and liter the roadways to destroy UBER for the cost of Spin/Bird/Lime/etc....

I am not understanding your question. FSD Subscription = FSD but just a monthly payment rather than a larger upfront purchase (with the chance to be cheaper over time).

I understand that the unboxed RoboTaxi will be cheaper to manufacture but find it still hard to believe that they will sell it for ~$25k-$30K with the FSD $8k upfront purchase included in that price. I also understand that Tesla will make some $ from taxi services on top as well but how will that work if it was purchased for personal use where fares are not being accumulated? Will personal use of the vehicle incur fare charges? Will it even be sold for personal use?

Pricing for the Cybercab is not yet finalized, obviously we all hope that the ~$30,000 includes FSD, but even if it ends up being "subscription only" I'd probably find it attractive depending on the Tesla Network revenue splits between the car owner and Tesla (also not yet clarified).

 

[Arctic_White]

Has to be included in that price... without FSD the Cybercab can't operate.

I don't think so.

$25K for the car. Then $99 monthly for the FSD subscription. Then 30% of gross revenue take, similar to what Uber does. Actually, it's undercutting Uber.

 

[Arctic_White]

Then it would only operate while they paid the subscription. That's not a great business model for the buyer.

-Crissa

You don't think Tesla will charge for a subscription? You don't think Tesla will take a cut, ala Uber?

 

[SteelMyHeart]

Tesla will absolutely take a cut because they are presumably on the hook for insurance costs if the cybercab were to be at fault for an accident. In addition if you want to use their wireless charging hub and robotic vacuum service there will be a fee. May be more profitable than an Uber but still many challenges to make it a core business. People have sex in waymos, do drugs in them, etc so still headaches of people abusing your cybercab.

 

[Cyber AI]

Is 25k including F. tax credit? or is over 30k before tax credit. I am assuming it should qualify.

 

[Zane Edwards]

$25K with FSD included at that price?

Has to be, there is no steering mechanism

 

[Cyber1qhorsey]

I don't know about you peeps, but I want steer by wire and 48 volt harness, for the next 10+ versions of AI-5 autonomy... THIS HUMAN LIKES TO DRIVE, SOME OF THE TIME AND SOME PLACES! When I'm 85+ I won't care no more!!

 

[GnarlyDudeLive]

Is 25k including F. tax credit? or is over 30k before tax credit. I am assuming it should qualify.

Unknown but it could include the gas savings over 5 years of the average taxi. Lol

 

[Crissa]

You don't think Tesla will charge for a subscription? You don't think Tesla will take a cut, ala Uber?

It would be a bad business model to do both.

-Crissa

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