First Down Year In Deliveries

[REM]

Of course, I called the facts facts.

A forecast is not a fact. I'm dumbfounded to have to explain this to you.

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[BannedByTMC]

A forecast is not a fact. I'm dumbfounded to have to explain this to you.

I'm dumbfounded you don't know what facts are.

 

[SCTesla]

Aging lineup - added by the writer, because they wanted to add a negative bias to the article. How do you even measure this? They don't nickel and dime customers every year with minor changes to the trim, so that means the Model S Plaid is a "aging" vehicle that is declining in sales because no one wants to buy it? So yeah, opinion and bias.

Actual unsupervised driving is still years - This is an opinion. Unless you time traveled from the future to deliver this news to us? I'll wager that Tesla starts operating the Cybercab in Austin this year.

Both of those things have been said by Tesla and Elon. You are getting worked up over nothing.

The Model S refresh was over 3 years ago. Most car companies do some minor refresh every year, but Tesla doesn't operate like that. Elon talked about a growth phase with new variants built on existing lines next year.

Cybercab in Austin does not equal unsupervised driving for the masses or even profitability. It's literally step 1, where Waymo was like 3 years ago. Plus, the prevailing thought from most is that the first Cybercabs will have a safety driver running FSD.

Again, if this is what you think is FUD and gets you upset, it's an issue with your bias/sensitivity.

 

[REM]

Cybercab in Austin does not equal unsupervised driving for the masses or even profitability

Ah yes, move those goalposts.

 

[tingmo13]

I wish TSLA would do a massive stock split.

Tesla have to split the stock-may be August as they normally do so that employees could take advantage of Stock Purchase Program-I'm excited!

 

[CyberTruckeeTheOne]

another FUD newspeak article. Tesla did very well in 2024.

It's not FUD when investors and business analysts are speaking and Tesla stocks are being dumped and now down -5.36%.

And yes, I own a CT, family of Tesla owners and a hurting stockholder.

 

[YDR37]

Deliveries and production were down. Most knew they would be as Tesla was in a transition year, regardless of what Elon said.

I believe it's the first year Tesla has gone down in deliveries. Just a few years ago they were increasing by 30% YoY, which obviously isn't sustainable.

You’re right – Tesla deliveries dropped slightly from 2023 to 2024, and it’s the first time that deliveries have fallen from one calendar year to the next. But the next question is: could deliveries fall again from 2024 to 2025?

In the US (which is now Tesla’s #2 market), the incoming administration has openly discussed cancelling the $7500 EV tax credit. Probably all of us can agree, regardless of political stance, that this would hurt EV sales. Elon has argued that it would hurt other EV manufacturers more than it would hurt Tesla, but even if that’s true, Tesla’s US deliveries could still drop.

In addition, the incoming administration has openly discussed enacting major tariffs on goods imported from China (which is now Tesla’s #1 market). If that did happen, China would likely retaliate against American companies, and Tesla would be an obvious potential target. China’s domestic EV manufacturers, like BYD, are booming, so the Chinese market has plenty of EV alternatives.

I apologize for bringing politics into this, but it does seem possible that political developments could have significant effects on Tesla deliveries in 2025.

Of course, there is also the possibility of technical developments in 2025. For example, if Tesla can significantly reduce prices or release Unsupervised FSD, that could outweigh any negative political factors.

 

[YDR37]

Here’s the number that most surprised me in Tesla’s 4Q 2024 news release:

4Q 2024, Other Models, Deliveries: 23,640

The “Other Models” category includes the Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck (basically the expensive Teslas). Tesla doesn’t report the sales of each individual model, only the total.

Now let’s look back a year. In 4Q 2023, the Cybertruck was officially introduced, but only a handful were actually delivered. So the CT was included in the “Other Models” category, but just barely. And the 4Q 2023 numbers looked like this:

4Q 2023, Other Models, Deliveries: 22,969

So the needle for deliveries of expensive Teslas barely budged from 4Q 2023 to 4Q 2024. This is despite a full year of ramping CT production, the availability of lower-cost non-Foundation CTs during most of 4Q 2024, the introduction of CTs to Canada and Mexico, and significant end-of-year sales incentives. Basically the CT offset the declining sales of the Model S/X, which have been gradually dropping for years. And that's good, but it was not nearly enough to offset the 2024 decline in sales of the Model Y and Model 3, which accounted for over 95% of Tesla's global deliveries.

We’ll get better numbers soon from independent analysts, but based on the latest data, CT sales (including Canada and Mexico) are running somewhere between 10,000-15,000 per quarter. In that case, the CT would have a niche in the North American truck market, roughly comparable to models like the Honda Ridgeline or Jeep Gladiator. It would not be anywhere close to the big dogs in the ICE truck world, like Ford, Chevy/GMC, or Ram, maybe Toyota; those guys are in the 100,000-200,000+ trucks per quarter range.

 

[BannedByTMC]

Yeah the S/X/CT numbers are not good anyway you slice it. Vehicles in those price ranges need to be really compelling to sell and the basically unchanged, (exteriors and range), S/X aren't providing that. CT may be too polarizing. Plus....other stuff...

 

[YDR37]

Yeah the S/X/CT numbers are not good anyway you slice it.

Go back 5 years. Here is what Elon was saying about the S/X numbers in October 2019:

Tesla continues to produce the Model S and Model X more for “sentimental reasons than anything else,” CEO Elon Musk said Wednesday during a call with investors, calling the electric vehicles “niche” products.

“They are really of minor importance to our future,” Musk added.

In 4Q 2019, Tesla delivered 19,450 Model S/X combined, which was 17.3% of all Tesla deliveries.

Fast-forward 5 years, to 4Q 2024. Tesla delivered 23,640 Model S/X/CT combined. OK that is a bit higher than the 19,450 delivered in 4Q 2019 -- but as percentage, the S/X/CT were just 4.8% of all Tesla deliveries. Seems like the expensive Teslas are even more "niche" products now than in 2019.

 

[Sjohnson20]

80k vehicle is the issue it’s not affordable for most people. If and when the 60k version appears then it will move a lot more.

 

[HaulingAss]

The Model S refresh was over 3 years ago. Most car companies do some minor refresh every year, but Tesla doesn't operate like that. Elon talked about a growth phase with new variants built on existing lines next year.

The Model Y has never had a major refresh since it was released in 2020, almost 5 years ago. Every other existing model has had a major refresh since the release of the Model Y, making it the most "aged" vehicle in the lineup.

And yet, it was the best-selling car in the world in both 2023 and the recently completed 2024. Other car makers would die to have the best-selling car in the world and yet Tesla managed that with their car that has gone the most years without a major update? So, is "aging fleet" really the problem here? This is just throwing mud and hoping it sticks, hoping it dissuades new car buyers from being interested in an "aging fleet". They are trying to know the Model Y off the "best-selling" podium.

Auto sales were down amongst most manufacturers in 2024. Car sales are cyclic, which means they ebb and flow with the state of the economy and consumer confidence. More vehicles were sold in 2023 than in 2024. That is not a problem specific to the age of Tesla's fleet.

In fact, 2025 should be another banner year for Tesla's best-selling Model Y. In China they are already mass-producing and delivering the new version, in North America they are almost entirely sold out of the existing version, unless you are willing to take a low-mileage demo or just happen to live where they have a few leftovers, you have to order a Model Y and wait for the newly refreshed version to be delivered as they ramp production in the U.S. It's an even better car and costs even less to manufacture.

The media will always push the limits of truth to try to make Tesla look bad. If anyone thinks the media's goal is to leave readers well-informed, well, I feel sorry for anyone who still believes that.

 

[HaulingAss]

80k vehicle is the issue it’s not affordable for most people. If and when the 60k version appears then it will move a lot more.

Affordability is why legacy auto is where the real problem with unsold truck inventory lies. Have you checked the prices of new trucks since COVID? ICE trucks are not moving well, even with huge discounts:



Yet the mainstream media bends over backwards to make people think it's the Cybertruck with a demand problem!

 

[SCTesla]

The media will always push the limits of truth to try to make Tesla look bad. If anyone thinks the media's goal is to leave readers well-informed, well, I feel sorry for anyone who still believes that.

The media will always push the limits of truth to try to make Tesla look bad. If anyone thinks the media's goal is to leave readers well-informed, well, I feel sorry for anyone who still believes that.
[/QUOTE]
Nothing said there was false or even stretched, though.

The MY/3 sold less this year than last. The S/X (other vehicles) sold 75k last year and this year with the added CT sold 85k. It's not the end of the world, but this year was a step back. Most knew it, but Elon was adamant that it wouldn't be the case as recently as October said they would exceed 2023 sales.

No one is reporting Tesla is doomed, but even you argued that they would sell more cars this year than last as you had confidence that Tesla would continue to grow. The US and the German market look like the worst for Tesla while the Chinese market is booming. There's a demand issue in the US for a list of reasons. I'm not predicting another step back next year, especially if they launch the new "lower cost vehicles based on current models/lines", but if they had the exact same SEXYC lineup, the safe money is that it would decrease, again. That's the "aged" lineup line that even Elon used in a different way. This year and next year are transition years for Tesla.

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