First Down Year In Deliveries

[YDR37]

Thanks for posting this. So I’m seeing 33,514 CT’s in 2024 and you’re confident that that number is correct. Do you happen to know how many were moved in 2023? 600? Less? I’m still trying to get a bead on how many of these would’ve been FS/CB’s.

I know I’m obsessed, but I really would like to know. Definitively.

Look, the only way to get a "correct" and "definitive" number would be from Tesla itself. So if that's what you want, go ask Tesla Customer Support. Good luck.

Troy Teslike is an outside analyst, and his numbers are only estimates. He has a good track record, and his numbers are most likely the best that are available outside of Tesla, but they are not guaranteed to be 100% "correct" and "definitive" (as I'm sure he would acknowledge).

His current estimates for Cybertruck deliveries are as follows:

4Q 2023: 106
1Q 2024: 1,600
2Q 2024: 7,991
3Q 2024: 12,323
4Q 2024: 9,600, plus 1,800 in Canada
Total through 4Q 2024: 33,620

However, his estimates for Cybertruck production are noticeably higher (which is maybe why Tesla is still trying to move Foundation Series Cybertrucks as of January 2025):

4Q 2023: 197
1Q 2024: 3,874
2Q 2024: 11,611
3Q 2024: 14,794
4Q 2024: 13,477
Total through 4Q 2024: 43,953

Probably everything through roughly 3Q 2024 is Foundation Series, but it might be hard to know exactly when Tesla made that change. For all we know, Tesla could still be making the FS for the Canadian market. Troy doesn't tabulate AWD vs FS, but he probably knows the breakdown, because that info is in the VIN, and he tracks VINs.

If you really want an estimate of FS CB production or sales, why don't you ask Troy Teslike himself? He's on Twitter and Bluesky. No guarantee that he will answer, but you are probably more likely to get a response from him than from Tesla. Troy might be even more likely to respond if you ask him nicely on Patreon, as a $5/month subscriber.

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[CTInProcess]

The Model Y has never had a major refresh since it was released in 2020, almost 5 years ago. Every other existing model has had a major refresh since the release of the Model Y, making it the most "aged" vehicle in the lineup.

And yet, it was the best-selling car in the world in both 2023 and the recently completed 2024. Other car makers would die to have the best-selling car in the world and yet Tesla managed that with their car that has gone the most years without a major update? So, is "aging fleet" really the problem here? This is just throwing mud and hoping it sticks, hoping it dissuades new car buyers from being interested in an "aging fleet". They are trying to know the Model Y off the "best-selling" podium.

Auto sales were down amongst most manufacturers in 2024. Car sales are cyclic, which means they ebb and flow with the state of the economy and consumer confidence. More vehicles were sold in 2023 than in 2024. That is not a problem specific to the age of Tesla's fleet.

In fact, 2025 should be another banner year for Tesla's best-selling Model Y. In China they are already mass-producing and delivering the new version, in North America they are almost entirely sold out of the existing version, unless you are willing to take a low-mileage demo or just happen to live where they have a few leftovers, you have to order a Model Y and wait for the newly refreshed version to be delivered as they ramp production in the U.S. It's an even better car and costs even less to manufacture.

The media will always push the limits of truth to try to make Tesla look bad. If anyone thinks the media's goal is to leave readers well-informed, well, I feel sorry for anyone who still believes that.

Agreed. There is no aging fleet. This entire lineup is futuristic and athletically better designed than any other car in the world. Eve exotics are jealous of the superior design of Tesla. God Bless Elon on his designing skills and vision.

Tesla should wait another 5 years before changing anything and not follow the typical car design cycle to keep bringing in fresh buyers. This is why our car values are high and remain steady. We all look the same, even the poor mans $60k CT will be the same.

 

[Crissa]

Agreed. There is no aging fleet. This entire lineup is futuristic and athletically better designed than any other car in the world. Eve exotics are jealous of the superior design of Tesla. God Bless Elon on his designing skills and vision.

Tesla should wait another 5 years before changing anything and not follow the typical car design cycle to keep bringing in fresh buyers. This is why our car values are high and remain steady. We all look the same, even the poor mans $60k CT will be the same.

Elon didn't design any of it. That's Franz.

And they should be looking to move their technology they have in the Cybertruck and Y into the 3 and and X and S. It would make them cheaper to make and allow them to make and sell more.

But all of that hinges upon US made batteries.

-Crissa

 

[Feathermerchant]

So here's what I want to know. Who are the guys on Wall Street that make the production estimates and when Tesla (or whomever) don't meet those estimates because the WS guys didn't get the estimate right) the company's stock drops significantly or when the company beat estimates the stock goes up (Rivian)? How can we be sure they are not just trying to manipulate the market for their own gain? How is the SEC involved or not involved?
Seems to me that there is a lot of subjective information affecting the real value of companies.

 

[Crissa]

So here's what I want to know. Who are the guys on Wall Street that make the production estimates and when Tesla (or whomever) don't meet those estimates because the WS guys didn't get the estimate right) the company's stock drops significantly or when the company beat estimates the stock goes up (Rivian)? How can we be sure they are not just trying to manipulate the market for their own gain? How is the SEC involved or not involved?
Seems to me that there is a lot of subjective information affecting the real value of companies.

Because it's an average of estimates from multiple sources with different motives.

-Crissa

 

[dalton108]

So here's what I want to know. Who are the guys on Wall Street that make the production estimates and when Tesla (or whomever) don't meet those estimates because the WS guys didn't get the estimate right) the company's stock drops significantly or when the company beat estimates the stock goes up (Rivian)? How can we be sure they are not just trying to manipulate the market for their own gain? How is the SEC involved or not involved?
Seems to me that there is a lot of subjective information affecting the real value of companies.

I do believe that this time around they missed their own estimates. But, as someone said earlier, so much is going on right now, it’s hard to glean anything meaningful from the stock price. Lots of noise in that signal.

I’m still confident that more of this has to do with a souring on the brand than people want to admit. Especially, Elon.

Antagonizing your core customers is not a sound business strategy. Anybody saying otherwise is a nitwit or trying to sell you something. Some non-zero portion of these numbers is related to that. 100%!

 

[Feathermerchant]

What is to keep the several different sources from colluding? I mean there are literally billions of dollars to be had here. It seems like a conflict of interest that has to happen sooner or later. I'm not just talking about Tesla. How many stocks are there?

 

[YDR37]

I do believe that this time around they missed their own estimates.

That is correct. Tesla's official 3Q 2024 report to investors, released on October 23, 2024, stated:

we expect to achieve slight growth in vehicle deliveries in 2024

Wall Street analysts, on average, doubted that Tesla would meet that expectation. Sometimes the Wall Street consensus is wrong, but this time it was right. Tesla deliveries fell slightly in 2024, instead of growing slightly as Tesla expected.

 

[CTInProcess]

Elon didn't design any of it. That's Franz.

And they should be looking to move their technology they have in the Cybertruck and Y into the 3 and and X and S. It would make them cheaper to make and allow them to make and sell more.

But all of that hinges upon US made batteries.

-Crissa

Franz is still with the Mazda mentality. I believe it was Elon that changed his design several times to make it perfect. Basically Franz is just a hired cartoon artist.

 

[YDR37]

What is to keep the several different sources from colluding? I mean there are literally billions of dollars to be had here. It seems like a conflict of interest that has to happen sooner or later. I'm not just talking about Tesla. How many stocks are there?

Business analysts, like sports analysts, are most influential if they have reputations for accuracy. Investors will check analyst forecasts for Tesla deliveries against the actual numbers, just as sports bettors will check football analysts' picks against the final score.

Could a business (or sports) analyst talk a particular company (or team) up (or down) in an attempt to shift investor expectations (or the point spread)? Sure, they have freedom of speech. If you are an investor (or bettor), you have the freedom to ignore the analysts (especially if they have lousy track records), or to give them more credibility (especially if they have good track records).

 

[SCTesla]

Franz is still with the Mazda mentality. I believe it was Elon that changed his design several times to make it perfect. Basically Franz is just a hired cartoon artist.

Franz is the designer. Elon provides notes. Elon co-desigbed the CT and original MS. The rest were Franz and his team.

 

[SCTesla]

What is to keep the several different sources from colluding? I mean there are literally billions of dollars to be had here. It seems like a conflict of interest that has to happen sooner or later. I'm not just talking about Tesla. How many stocks are there?

The analyst base their numbers off what Tesla reports and other things like registrations.

The market typically discards completely unrealistic predictions from both sides like Ark on the high end.

There are too many independent sources like Troy for any collusion to occur in this aspect and make a huge impact.

 

[Crissa]

Franz is still with the Mazda mentality. I believe it was Elon that changed his design several times to make it perfect. Basically Franz is just a hired cartoon artist.

Certainly there's collaboration there - there's a whole line of other engineers who are responsible for the parts to make it work all together.

But no, Franz is not a 'cartoonist'.

Syracuse University (1986–1988),
ArtCenter College of Design (1988–1992, BS in Transportation Design)

He has worked on many more vehicles than 'Mazda'; and is responsible for blending function with aerodynamics in the design. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franz_von_Holzhausen

Elon leans heavily upon the education of others. He's just the guy who was lucky to let it ride all on black in the tech-roulette and having that bet pay off not just once or twice but now four times. There were thousands of others trying and with all the elements of genius and good ideas or execution but didn't also meet the right money and timing.

But since, his bets haven't all paid off. Some will, some won't. Because there's a strong element of luck, stronger than any genius.

-Crissa

 

[Nigel]

I wish TSLA would do a massive stock split so I could dump my life's savings in before the robot taxi network is turned on.

Technically It makes no difference before or after a split. A split doesn't change the value of the company. Buy 100 now or 600 later after a 6 to 1 split equals the same. If you think the stock is good value now then buy them now. But why didn't you do it when the stock was in the 170s 6 months ago, nothing has fundamentally changed except some political alignment with the new administration that hated electric vehicles and Elon pissing off most of his existing customer base.

Also, what happened to the Cybertruck 1.5 million preorders. I was not expecting to be able to purchase my truck until 2026, now I can get one within a month or so.

I'm not saying the stock is expensive or cheap but be careful putting all your eggs in one basket, there are plenty of flags going each way.

 

[Joe123]

I wish TSLA would do a massive stock split so I could dump my life's savings in before the robot taxi network is turned on.

Why would you have to wait for a stock split? I mean, even if your life savings are less than $400, you could still buy fractional shares. No diss, just curious.

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