Tesla could cancel Model Y, Cybertruck 4680 battery production ramp by end 2024

[Spacenoddle]

https://www.notebookcheck.net/Tesla...ery-production-ramp-by-end-2024.864420.0.html

If so, there will be no $7500 tax credit next year.

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[Crissa]

I don't know that 'notebookcheck' site, but they don't cite any sources, and their statements are dubious.

No one currently sells 4680 cells - not BYD or CATL - of the type Tesla uses, despite some trying to spin up lines and knockoffs being made. Samsung is probably closest, but they're in validation last I know.

-Crissa

 

[Jager]

While nominally true, that news is a couple months old.

Notwithstanding their manufacturing and performance challenges, I see very little chance Elon would actually shut down the in-house production of 4680's. That would almost certainly impact the Cybertruck ramp, which will be well along (end of 2024 target is 125K/year) by then. A Cybertruck production interruption would delay profitability of that vehicle, which would be a real issue. It's one thing to sell a relatively few vehicles at a loss (like Ford and Chevy). It's something else altogether to sell large numbers that don't send anything to the bottom line.

The other factor is Tesla's heavy bias towards vertical supply chains.

I consider Musk's comments a couple months ago about potentially shutting down in-house 4680 production to be just a bit of helpful "motivation" to the team.

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