The reality true prize of cybertruck.

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Elon stated in the CT reveal event the price was without any incentives. I think he did so because Tesla lost the $7500 per vehicle Federal Tax Credit for EVs due to them selling more than 250,000 vehicles.

However, in incoming President Joe Biden's tax plan they are planning to reinstate the tax credit for all EVs regardless of how many were sold by the manufacturer. So you may qualify for a $7500 tax credit after that goes into effect.

I am hoping that is in place prior to my CT purchase, for me it would make FSD free :)
 

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Elon stated in the CT reveal event the price was without any incentives. I think he did so because Tesla lost the $7500 per vehicle Federal Tax Credit for EVs due to them selling more than 250,000 vehicles.

However, in incoming President Joe Biden's tax plan they are planning to reinstate the tax credit for all EVs regardless of how many were sold by the manufacturer. So you may qualify for a $7500 tax credit after that goes into effect.

I am hoping that is in place prior to my CT purchase, for me it would make FSD free :)
That would be AWESOME.
 

egandalf

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If you're solely concerned about price, then it's going to be a tough sell, I'm sorry to say.

I did some research and math. Let's start at Edmunds for the 2020 Sienna cost to own:

https://www.edmunds.com/toyota/sienna/2020/cost-to-own/#style=401794839

This model is close in price at about $44,300 to what your wife picked out. I'm going to use this to do some comparisons. I had to make some assumptions since there is still much we don't know about the cost of owning a Cybertruck.

Maintenance:
The maintenance on the Sienna is predicted Edmunds. For 5 years, it comes to $4,361.

IF you buy the maintenance package on the Cybertruck, I assume it will be close to that on the Model X (most similar in size/weight to the CT) at about $3,000. Add an assumed $1,000 tire change and you're pretty evenly matched at $4,000. Not a huge savings.

Repairs:
It...depends, right? Edmunds suggests repairs on the Sienna might be around $671 over 5 years.

The CT comes with a pretty good warranty and all the small things should be covered under the extra maintenance, so for now we'll leave this empty. What you won't have to worry about are repairs for dings or spots in the paint or other cosmetics. You will be responsible for anything more, like if you curb the wheel and damage it.

Taxes & other fees:
These should be pretty even as a percentage of the MSRP between the two vehicles. So if it's $2,612 for the Sienna, I would estimate it to be $2,942 for the CT. This depends on where you live and specific laws in place there. Some states have vehicle property taxes, some don't, etc.

Financing:
If you take out a loan, there are some options for EVs that offer better rates. For comparison, though, we'll simply calculate the finance as a percent of the MSRP and apply it to both. That puts finance costs at $8,029 for the Sienna and $9,042 for the Cybertruck.

Fuel:
And here we are! This is supposed to be the big area where EVs shine, right? Well, the CT is a big heavy vehicle and you're comparing it to a big, but much lighter hybrid, and not a gas guzzler.

The estimate I found for the Hybrid Sienna is that it should get 36 miles per gallon. For the Cybertruck, it's estimated at 420 watt-hours per mile (because of *course* it is) which equates to about 2.4 miles per KWH.

Assuming 15,000 miles and a pre-pandemic starting point of $2.69 per gallon of gas, increasing, on average, by 2.24% per year (calculated from gas prices between 2009 and 2019), that would put the cost of fuel for the Sienna at $5,852 over 5 years.

Assuming the same miles and a starting point of $0.1225 per KWH, increasing at 3.5% per year, the "fuel" cost of the Cybertruck would be $4,138 over 5 years.

Whether you have solar panels or other ways of making electricity cheaper will have a big impact.

Insurance and Depreciation
I left insurance and depreciation out because, honestly, who knows?!

There are a great many anecdotes from Tesla owners out there who claim that their insurance didn't change much or even went down when they bought there Tesla. I doubt that's in-line with the average, however. What I have read is that the Cybertruck will likely be more expensive to insure than average. Maybe 67% more according to one source, maybe 300% more according to another.

My guess is that it will be closer to 67% more, but there are so many factors that go into insurance that it's impossible to guess unless it's what you do for a living, if then.

Depreciation suffers from similar unknowns. You'll find 5 year old Teslas that still hold 50% of their value, but Toyotas fair almost as well and with higher mileage. My best guess is that it will be similar between the two. If the consumer market starts to lean more heavily in favor of EVs, then that could favor the Cybertruck. But it could as easily tilt the other way.

Conclusion
My best-case guess is that the Cybertruck will cost you more to drive over 5 years. Why? Partly because of the difference in price.

What you almost never see is someone making a video comparing a Model 3 to a Camry to talk about costs of ownership. Why? The Camry is cheaper and the financially wiser choice. Is it the more fun choice? No. The greener choice? Probably not. The more advanced choice? Hell no.

If the vehicle is cheaper to begin with, it makes it more difficult for the fuel savings to catch up. The Sienna is $5,000 cheaper. While you'll be paying less in fuel, the CT is still coming from behind on cost.

Second is that the Sienna can be a hybrid with 36 MPG instead of the ICE-only variant's 21 MPG. That delta makes a HUGE difference in the overall TCO of the Toyota.

Where does the math end up?

The Toyota Sienna I used in my model costs $5,592 less than the Cybertruck.
The Cybertruck costs $1,403 less to own and operate over 5 years.

That gives the Sienna a $4,190 financial advantage.

If the Sienna were the regular ICE variety, at 21 MPG, then it would be an even match between the two over 5 years - literally came within $10 of TCO.

Were it up to me, I would still favor the Cybertruck as the good purchase decision based on design, function, and eco-friendliness.

If you need to haul kids, either vehicle will do. If you need to haul, say, some lumber, well, both vehicles can do that. The Cybertruck can do both simultaneously.

The Cybertruck is an apocalypse-ready stainless steel armored tank from the future. The Sienna is a *checks notes* minivan.

The Sienna will be the same the day you sell it as the day you bought it. The Cybertruck will get constant over-the-air updates to help keep the experience feeling fresh.
 

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If you're solely concerned about price, then it's going to be a tough sell, I'm sorry to say.

I did some research and math. Let's start at Edmunds for the 2020 Sienna cost to own:

https://www.edmunds.com/toyota/sienna/2020/cost-to-own/#style=401794839

This model is close in price at about $44,300 to what your wife picked out. I'm going to use this to do some comparisons. I had to make some assumptions since there is still much we don't know about the cost of owning a Cybertruck.

Maintenance:
The maintenance on the Sienna is predicted Edmunds. For 5 years, it comes to $4,361.

IF you buy the maintenance package on the Cybertruck, I assume it will be close to that on the Model X (most similar in size/weight to the CT) at about $3,000. Add an assumed $1,000 tire change and you're pretty evenly matched at $4,000. Not a huge savings.

Repairs:
It...depends, right? Edmunds suggests repairs on the Sienna might be around $671 over 5 years.

The CT comes with a pretty good warranty and all the small things should be covered under the extra maintenance, so for now we'll leave this empty. What you won't have to worry about are repairs for dings or spots in the paint or other cosmetics. You will be responsible for anything more, like if you curb the wheel and damage it.

Taxes & other fees:
These should be pretty even as a percentage of the MSRP between the two vehicles. So if it's $2,612 for the Sienna, I would estimate it to be $2,942 for the CT. This depends on where you live and specific laws in place there. Some states have vehicle property taxes, some don't, etc.

Financing:
If you take out a loan, there are some options for EVs that offer better rates. For comparison, though, we'll simply calculate the finance as a percent of the MSRP and apply it to both. That puts finance costs at $8,029 for the Sienna and $9,042 for the Cybertruck.

Fuel:
And here we are! This is supposed to be the big area where EVs shine, right? Well, the CT is a big heavy vehicle and you're comparing it to a big, but much lighter hybrid, and not a gas guzzler.

The estimate I found for the Hybrid Sienna is that it should get 36 miles per gallon. For the Cybertruck, it's estimated at 420 watt-hours per mile (because of *course* it is) which equates to about 2.4 miles per KWH.

Assuming 15,000 miles and a pre-pandemic starting point of $2.69 per gallon of gas, increasing, on average, by 2.24% per year (calculated from gas prices between 2009 and 2019), that would put the cost of fuel for the Sienna at $5,852 over 5 years.

Assuming the same miles and a starting point of $0.1225 per KWH, increasing at 3.5% per year, the "fuel" cost of the Cybertruck would be $4,138 over 5 years.

Whether you have solar panels or other ways of making electricity cheaper will have a big impact.

Insurance and Depreciation
I left insurance and depreciation out because, honestly, who knows?!

There are a great many anecdotes from Tesla owners out there who claim that their insurance didn't change much or even went down when they bought there Tesla. I doubt that's in-line with the average, however. What I have read is that the Cybertruck will likely be more expensive to insure than average. Maybe 67% more according to one source, maybe 300% more according to another.

My guess is that it will be closer to 67% more, but there are so many factors that go into insurance that it's impossible to guess unless it's what you do for a living, if then.

Depreciation suffers from similar unknowns. You'll find 5 year old Teslas that still hold 50% of their value, but Toyotas fair almost as well and with higher mileage. My best guess is that it will be similar between the two. If the consumer market starts to lean more heavily in favor of EVs, then that could favor the Cybertruck. But it could as easily tilt the other way.

Conclusion
My best-case guess is that the Cybertruck will cost you more to drive over 5 years. Why? Partly because of the difference in price.

What you almost never see is someone making a video comparing a Model 3 to a Camry to talk about costs of ownership. Why? The Camry is cheaper and the financially wiser choice. Is it the more fun choice? No. The greener choice? Probably not. The more advanced choice? Hell no.

If the vehicle is cheaper to begin with, it makes it more difficult for the fuel savings to catch up. The Sienna is $5,000 cheaper. While you'll be paying less in fuel, the CT is still coming from behind on cost.

Second is that the Sienna can be a hybrid with 36 MPG instead of the ICE-only variant's 21 MPG. That delta makes a HUGE difference in the overall TCO of the Toyota.

Where does the math end up?

The Toyota Sienna I used in my model costs $5,592 less than the Cybertruck.
The Cybertruck costs $1,403 less to own and operate over 5 years.

That gives the Sienna a $4,190 financial advantage.

If the Sienna were the regular ICE variety, at 21 MPG, then it would be an even match between the two over 5 years - literally came within $10 of TCO.

Were it up to me, I would still favor the Cybertruck as the good purchase decision based on design, function, and eco-friendliness.

If you need to haul kids, either vehicle will do. If you need to haul, say, some lumber, well, both vehicles can do that. The Cybertruck can do both simultaneously.

The Cybertruck is an apocalypse-ready stainless steel armored tank from the future. The Sienna is a *checks notes* minivan.

The Sienna will be the same the day you sell it as the day you bought it. The Cybertruck will get constant over-the-air updates to help keep the experience feeling fresh.
I simply meant they might raise the price if a incentive was available. It was a joke, not a reason to write a short story.
 

egandalf

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I simply meant they might raise the price if a incentive was available. It was a joke, not a reason to write a short story.
I was trying to help the OP. Coincidentally came up after your reply.
 

egandalf

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Edmunds estimates for ICE vehicles is low and it's high for EVs.

Honestly, I cannot square their maintenance estimates with what I actually spend.

-Crissa
I go with the data I have. If there's a better source, I'd love to use it. Edmunds was also what Ben Sullins of (formerly) Teslanomics used. I figured it was good enough for me.
 

TI4Dan

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David, I congratulate you for fearlessly tackling a language which appears to be a second language, or even a distant third. I'm quite sure the price of Cybertruck is plus tax and license, so definitely allow for that. But consider the fact, if you don't get the Cybertruck, you'll always regret it. Not me. I assure you, my friend, I am going to be one happy SS 'lectric truckin' mofo.
When I read your post It finally became clear what this this thread was really all about. I thought the "prize was Cybertruck" with question on cost. It did not make any sense to me until you mention language, then it clicked for me. I thought I was just old.
 

ajdelange

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There is clearly a persistent ESL problem here which OP evidently still has not picked up on:

Prize: Something of unusual desirabilty or value awarded as a result of a competition or sought after
Price: The amount of money or other valuable consideration paid for something.
 
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If you're solely concerned about price, then it's going to be a tough sell, I'm sorry to say.

I did some research and math. Let's start at Edmunds for the 2020 Sienna cost to own:

https://www.edmunds.com/toyota/sienna/2020/cost-to-own/#style=401794839

This model is close in price at about $44,300 to what your wife picked out. I'm going to use this to do some comparisons. I had to make some assumptions since there is still much we don't know about the cost of owning a Cybertruck.

Maintenance:
The maintenance on the Sienna is predicted Edmunds. For 5 years, it comes to $4,361.

IF you buy the maintenance package on the Cybertruck, I assume it will be close to that on the Model X (most similar in size/weight to the CT) at about $3,000. Add an assumed $1,000 tire change and you're pretty evenly matched at $4,000. Not a huge savings.

Repairs:
It...depends, right? Edmunds suggests repairs on the Sienna might be around $671 over 5 years.

The CT comes with a pretty good warranty and all the small things should be covered under the extra maintenance, so for now we'll leave this empty. What you won't have to worry about are repairs for dings or spots in the paint or other cosmetics. You will be responsible for anything more, like if you curb the wheel and damage it.

Taxes & other fees:
These should be pretty even as a percentage of the MSRP between the two vehicles. So if it's $2,612 for the Sienna, I would estimate it to be $2,942 for the CT. This depends on where you live and specific laws in place there. Some states have vehicle property taxes, some don't, etc.

Financing:
If you take out a loan, there are some options for EVs that offer better rates. For comparison, though, we'll simply calculate the finance as a percent of the MSRP and apply it to both. That puts finance costs at $8,029 for the Sienna and $9,042 for the Cybertruck.

Fuel:
And here we are! This is supposed to be the big area where EVs shine, right? Well, the CT is a big heavy vehicle and you're comparing it to a big, but much lighter hybrid, and not a gas guzzler.

The estimate I found for the Hybrid Sienna is that it should get 36 miles per gallon. For the Cybertruck, it's estimated at 420 watt-hours per mile (because of *course* it is) which equates to about 2.4 miles per KWH.

Assuming 15,000 miles and a pre-pandemic starting point of $2.69 per gallon of gas, increasing, on average, by 2.24% per year (calculated from gas prices between 2009 and 2019), that would put the cost of fuel for the Sienna at $5,852 over 5 years.

Assuming the same miles and a starting point of $0.1225 per KWH, increasing at 3.5% per year, the "fuel" cost of the Cybertruck would be $4,138 over 5 years.

Whether you have solar panels or other ways of making electricity cheaper will have a big impact.

Insurance and Depreciation
I left insurance and depreciation out because, honestly, who knows?!

There are a great many anecdotes from Tesla owners out there who claim that their insurance didn't change much or even went down when they bought there Tesla. I doubt that's in-line with the average, however. What I have read is that the Cybertruck will likely be more expensive to insure than average. Maybe 67% more according to one source, maybe 300% more according to another.

My guess is that it will be closer to 67% more, but there are so many factors that go into insurance that it's impossible to guess unless it's what you do for a living, if then.

Depreciation suffers from similar unknowns. You'll find 5 year old Teslas that still hold 50% of their value, but Toyotas fair almost as well and with higher mileage. My best guess is that it will be similar between the two. If the consumer market starts to lean more heavily in favor of EVs, then that could favor the Cybertruck. But it could as easily tilt the other way.

Conclusion
My best-case guess is that the Cybertruck will cost you more to drive over 5 years. Why? Partly because of the difference in price.

What you almost never see is someone making a video comparing a Model 3 to a Camry to talk about costs of ownership. Why? The Camry is cheaper and the financially wiser choice. Is it the more fun choice? No. The greener choice? Probably not. The more advanced choice? Hell no.

If the vehicle is cheaper to begin with, it makes it more difficult for the fuel savings to catch up. The Sienna is $5,000 cheaper. While you'll be paying less in fuel, the CT is still coming from behind on cost.

Second is that the Sienna can be a hybrid with 36 MPG instead of the ICE-only variant's 21 MPG. That delta makes a HUGE difference in the overall TCO of the Toyota.

Where does the math end up?

The Toyota Sienna I used in my model costs $5,592 less than the Cybertruck.
The Cybertruck costs $1,403 less to own and operate over 5 years.

That gives the Sienna a $4,190 financial advantage.

If the Sienna were the regular ICE variety, at 21 MPG, then it would be an even match between the two over 5 years - literally came within $10 of TCO.

Were it up to me, I would still favor the Cybertruck as the good purchase decision based on design, function, and eco-friendliness.

If you need to haul kids, either vehicle will do. If you need to haul, say, some lumber, well, both vehicles can do that. The Cybertruck can do both simultaneously.

The Cybertruck is an apocalypse-ready stainless steel armored tank from the future. The Sienna is a *checks notes* minivan.

The Sienna will be the same the day you sell it as the day you bought it. The Cybertruck will get constant over-the-air updates to help keep the experience feeling fresh.
There is so much to consider between the CT and other trucks, even hybrids; but the CT could more evenly compare to the likes of what the Ford Raptor has to offer - try $64-74k and more. And, I say this, for several reasons - 0-60 speed that's beyond most other trucks, dynamic suspension that will compare to Fox Shocks at all speeds and in any condition, and overall size and ergonomics.

The first HUGE benefit of the CT is helping eliminate your driving carbon footprint, completely. That's no small benefit, today... it will likely be a requirement very soon. No door dings, paint scrapes or creases in doors, fenders, etc from everything from superstore parking lots, to riding tight mountain trails. All these are a non-issues with the CyberTruck. Next, auto software updates shouldn't be underestimated, as most legacy manufacturers won't give anything for free. HUGE benefit of owning Tesla. And, the list goes on and on. Honestly, if it was as close as you say; do you really think hundreds of thousands of people would have signed up for it as they have? And, these are SMART people, seeking to minimize their impact on the earth, and shop responsibly. Just sayin peace
 

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There is so much to consider between the CT and other trucks, even hybrids; but the CT could more evenly compare to the likes of what the Ford Raptor has to offer - try $64-74k and more. And, I say this, for several reasons - 0-60 speed that's beyond most other trucks, dynamic suspension that will compare to Fox Shocks at all speeds and in any condition, and overall size and ergonomics.

The first HUGE benefit of the CT is helping eliminate your driving carbon footprint, completely. That's no small benefit, today... it will likely be a requirement very soon. No door dings, paint scrapes or creases in doors, fenders, etc from everything from superstore parking lots, to riding tight mountain trails. All these are a non-issues with the CyberTruck. Next, auto software updates shouldn't be underestimated, as most legacy manufacturers won't give anything for free. HUGE benefit of owning Tesla. And, the list goes on and on. Honestly, if it was as close as you say; do you really think hundreds of thousands of people would have signed up for it as they have? And, these are SMART people, seeking to minimize their impact on the earth, and shop responsibly. Just sayin peace
The OP was comparing the Cybertruck to the Sienna. I merely adapted the work I did comparing the CT to the Tundra, which was a clear victory for the Cybertruck. About $6,000 savings over 5 years.

Of course there are many important reasons to drive the Cybertruck over any ICE vehicle. And if one were interested in a Cybertruck versus a Raptor, I’d gladly do the same work to compare the financials.

Even if the Cybertruck were $6,000 more expensive instead of less, I’d still buy it for many of the reasons you mentioned.

Best new vehicle I’ve seen. Ever.
 
OP

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Elon stated in the CT reveal event the price was without any incentives. I think he did so because Tesla lost the $7500 per vehicle Federal Tax Credit for EVs due to them selling more than 250,000 vehicles.

However, in incoming President Joe Biden's tax plan they are planning to reinstate the tax credit for all EVs regardless of how many were sold by the manufacturer. So you may qualify for a $7500 tax credit after that goes into effect.

I am hoping that is in place prior to my CT purchase, for me it would make FSD free :)
I hope so too.
 

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