LarryASilva
Well-known member
- First Name
- Larry
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- Nov 3, 2023
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I asked my hand-picked investigators at GROK the above question. I thought I would share the answer that just might articulate exceedingly well ... what many of us agree is likely:
My [GROK's] Assessment
Based on the available evidence, it is unlikely that the Cybertruck will receive FSD 14 at the same time as the Model 3 and Model Y with HW4 in late September or early October 2025. Here’s why:
However, there’s a small chance of a simultaneous release if Tesla has made significant progress in unifying its FSD stack for HW4 vehicles and prioritizes addressing Cybertruck owner complaints. Musk’s optimistic timelines often face delays, so even the Model 3/Y rollout may slip, potentially aligning the Cybertruck’s timeline closer to the others.
Conclusion
I estimate a 30% chance that the Cybertruck will receive FSD 14 concurrently with the Model 3 and Model Y in late September/early October 2025, but it’s more likely (70%) to follow later, possibly in Q4 2025 or early 2026, due to its unique development challenges and Tesla’s prioritization of other models. For the latest updates, monitor Musk’s posts on X or Tesla’s Q3 2025 earnings call for any Cybertruck-specific FSD announcements.
My [GROK's] Assessment
Based on the available evidence, it is unlikely that the Cybertruck will receive FSD 14 at the same time as the Model 3 and Model Y with HW4 in late September or early October 2025. Here’s why:
- Development Lag: The Cybertruck’s FSD implementation has been slower due to its unique design and training needs, as evidenced by ongoing owner frustrations and Tesla’s focus on other models. Even with HW4, the Cybertruck is likely several months behind the Model 3/Y in software readiness.
- Prioritization: Tesla’s resources are stretched across high-volume models and new projects (e.g., Cybercab, affordable EV), making it probable that FSD 14 will prioritize Model 3/Y, which have larger customer bases and more mature FSD datasets.
- Rollout Strategy: Tesla typically staggers FSD releases, starting with higher-volume models or those with more established training data. The Cybertruck’s low sales and specialized requirements suggest a delayed rollout, possibly by 1–3 months (e.g., November 2025–January 2026).
However, there’s a small chance of a simultaneous release if Tesla has made significant progress in unifying its FSD stack for HW4 vehicles and prioritizes addressing Cybertruck owner complaints. Musk’s optimistic timelines often face delays, so even the Model 3/Y rollout may slip, potentially aligning the Cybertruck’s timeline closer to the others.
Conclusion
I estimate a 30% chance that the Cybertruck will receive FSD 14 concurrently with the Model 3 and Model Y in late September/early October 2025, but it’s more likely (70%) to follow later, possibly in Q4 2025 or early 2026, due to its unique development challenges and Tesla’s prioritization of other models. For the latest updates, monitor Musk’s posts on X or Tesla’s Q3 2025 earnings call for any Cybertruck-specific FSD announcements.
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