Unsupervised FSD in 2025 for Texas and California says Musk at Robotaxi / Cybercab reveal

[Deleted member 17810]

He did specifically say that all currently produced vehicles will get fully unsupervised driving. Then later he said they over spec-ed hardware 5, so the extra compute double be used while offline(who gets that compute power, will Tesla rent it from owners, or allow cheaper cars if you allow them access, or can I mine crypto while my car is parked). So my guess would be anything with HW4 will get unsupervised FSD.

He says alot of things. He also at one point said that all current model s released would be capable of self driving with current hardware years ago.

The HUGE full screen disclaimer they put before the presentation should tell you something. They've never done that.

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[Darthamerica]

Funny enough, I think they are way more gratuitous with their timeline this go-round haha. After-all, Waymo already has regulatory approval in several areas. If they were to hold Tesla up, they would have some serious explaining to do. Hopefully it doesn't come to that. And if it does, we could find out something wild like Waymo having a command center where people are policing the card is some sort of assisted fashion (which I think is happening anyway to be perfectly honest).

And considering how far along Juniper already is, I wonder if that platform is already locked into Hardware4?

Waymo is geofenced, hard coded, has a steering wheel and pedals. The devil is in the details. Regulatory clearance is not going to be easy.

 

[Woodrick]

That's one of the major differences between level 2 and 3. Mercedes' level 3 system, they cover. Until Tesla is willing to cover insurance costs (not likely anytime soon), it's all smoke and mirrors. I thought maybe they were getting closer when they introduced their own insurance in select states, but nothing has changed. You're on the hook now with Actually Smart Summon.

Yes, because the product is not released yet.

 

[Woodrick]

He says alot of things. He also at one point said that all current model s released would be capable of self driving with current hardware years ago.

The HUGE full screen disclaimer they put before the presentation should tell you something. They've never done that.

I believe that Elon said "currently selling"

I'm pretty sure those disclaimers have always existed. (or at least for the past few years after the SEC got upset with Elon) I believe that it was the same disclaimer that appears at every stockholder meeting.

 

[Deleted member 17810]

I believe that Elon said "currently selling"

I'm pretty sure those disclaimers have always existed. (or at least for the past few years after the SEC got upset with Elon) I believe that it was the same disclaimer that appears at every stockholder meeting.

Yes, shareholders meetings, because it's by law.

They have never been shown at events like this. Not that I can remember.

 

[Sjohnson20]

Makes sense to geofence the unsupervised at first. Heavily mapping out one area and getting it right then later moving to a new area and doing the same thing. Once they get all the main cities unsupervised then it should be easier to do the rest of the country. This is going to take many years. I bet we are looking at 5-10 years until this is done.

 

[Cyberostachu]

Not sure. AI5 is supposed to be in some vehicles in 2025.

Tesla is still pretty far away from Robotaxi. They haven't even applied for approval in CA, they have yet to explain their plans for remote interventions, etc.

It's pretty clear that next year unsupervised will be a L3 type system, but that's still progress. I think many were hoping that 10/10 would be "Hey look what we have"...not an event launching products for 3-5 years down the road.

I posted here like 10 times that Elon said it was a platform reveal, but there were a lot on X thinking we would hear that the Cybercab would be announced in a geofenced area immediately.

Too many missing pieces in the puzzle. You are right. Why would we be watching an event for something to happen 3 to 5 years down the line? As an investor in Tesla I thought the event was something that moves the needle positive in the stock market. We'll have the time to watch last night's event a year or 2 in the future.

 

[REM]

So we’ve been crapping on Waymo for being geofenced but it sounds like Tesla actual FSD will be geofenced?

Waymo is geofenced because of technical limitations.

FSD will be geofenced (at first) because of politicians.

 

[REM]

Makes sense to geofence the unsupervised at first. Heavily mapping out one area and getting it right then later moving to a new area and doing the same thing. Once they get all the main cities unsupervised then it should be easier to do the rest of the country. This is going to take many years. I bet we are looking at 5-10 years until this is done.

The Tesla vehicle fleet is already constantly mapping areas, so this will not change. FSD doesn't *need* highly detailed preloaded maps to function; Waymo does.

 

[txtravwill]

Like Waymo they will definitely need the ability for a team to remote in to get the cars out of issues.

 

[CyberTruckeeTheOne]

In case you didn't watch it, Musk revealed last night during the Robotaxi Cybercab Robocan reveal event:

"We do expect to start fully autonomous unsupervised FSD in Texas and California next year." Musk said. "That's with the Model 3 and Model Y."

Presumably then, the S, X and Cybertruck won't get unsupervised FSD until 2026 at earliest.

Here's the part where he talks about Unsupervised Full Self Driving FSD --

With my Tesla stocks tanking again, I can almost scream the Nike slogan:

Just do it! (and not keep on promising and missing deadlines after self-declared time tables).

 

[RayzorBEV]

The trunk is Súper grande! Anyone knows if the RoboTaxi also has a frunk?

 

[Woodrick]

The trunk is Súper grande! Anyone knows if the RoboTaxi also has a frunk?

Seeing the way it looked, I suspect that it may be outfitted like a subway car, a rental car bus. or a "plane train".
If you have luggage, you keep it to yourself.

 

[Crissa]

I want to know how insurance is going to work, when FSD ”Unsupervised“ kicks in.

Simple: In unsupervised mode, Tesla is responsible.

How do we prove that to a cop? Undetermined.

But this whole conversation seems to be skipping that the state laws will not allow random drivers to be given unsupervised full self driving until it passes the regulatory hurdles of proving itself - and Tesla taking liability.

Until Tesla does those steps, don't get too excited about owning your own flock of robotaxis.

-Crissa

 

[Eddyrelik]

I was very dissapointed in the event. Really surprised and bummed they didn't create a Steering Wheel version of the Cybercab, and an actual Robovan for consumers. Model X is too small for family use.

Sucks they are just going full autonomous, with a two seater or a 20 seater. Way too ahead of the times and I feel disconnected to what people want. Consumer vehicles are still what people want and pay for.

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