Unsupervised FSD in 2025 for Texas and California says Musk at Robotaxi / Cybercab reveal

[Deleted member 17810]

The Tesla vehicle fleet is already constantly mapping areas, so this will not change. FSD doesn't *need* highly detailed preloaded maps to function; Waymo does.

This is actually wrong.

Waymo can interact and react faster to new obstacles than fsd can becuse it's nearly instant. A local lidar sensor is truer than an optical camera that has to go through computation.

Waymo also uses visual data, but it's not reliant ONLY on it.

They are both tied into highly evolving maps that change.

Waymo is geofenced because of technical limitations.

FSD will be geofenced (at first) because of politicians.

They're both fenced due to regulations(safety) and being able to provide accurate mapping. .

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[Crissa]

They would be used for different purposes. M3 is a consumer car, Cybercab is a cab. If you are asking which they would by to make money on RT, it depends if they want dual use.

Different models carry different amounts of people in differing levels of comfort.

I've seen people poo-poo-ing the two seat cab, except the vast majority of rides are two or less - and they already make other models of autonomous compatible cars that seat 5-7.

-Crissa

 

[Crissa]

This is actually wrong.

Waymo can interact and react faster to new obstacles than fsd can becuse it's nearly instant. A ...

That's not how that works.

At all.

Literally, lidar is slower that cameras because it requires the light to leave the emitter, bounce back, be interpolated, repeated, and then meshed with the visual data.

A camera system doesn't depend upon shaped emitter signals. And then it does the same interpolation and meshing.

So while lidar is more accurate to a point, it isn't faster to make the car decide thing - that's entirely up to the driving stack to respond in a timely manner.

Model X is too small for family use.

Most families have fewer than 20 children. The average family unit in North America is four or fewer seats.

-Crissa

 

[Deleted member 17810]

That's not how that works.

At all.

Literally, lidar is slower that cameras because it requires the light to leave the emitter, bounce back, be interpolated, repeated, and then meshed with the visual data.

A camera system doesn't depend upon shaped emitter signals. And then it does the same interpolation and meshing.

So while lidar is more accurate to a point, it isn't faster to make the car decide thing - that's entirely up to the driving stack to respond in a timely manner.

-Crissa

No.

https://spectrum.ieee.org/lidar-on-a-chip

Tesla's FSD system requires processing on chip, and then to their NN.

Systems with LIDAR can react to a physical object, send reaction comands within milliseconds before the selfdriving hardware on teslas can parse it.

literally, lidar is slower that cameras because it requires the light to leave the emitter, bounce back, be interpolated, repeated, and then meshed with the visual data.

Don't take this the wrong way, but do you know how a camera works?

 

[Crissa]

Makes sense to geofence the unsupervised at first.

True! Even ignoring the mapping issue: Robots still need chargers, repair services, cleaning services, towing contracts, someone to come rescue them when an idiot t-bones them in an intersection...

If you owned a flock of Robotaxis, would you let them go *anywhere*?

-Crissa

 

[Eddyrelik]

Most families have fewer than 20 children. The average family unit in North America is four or fewer seats.

-Crissa

Yes, but Robovan is not a consumer vehicle. We will not be able to buy/drive one. Way too big for a driveway anyway haha. Thats like for rideshare or Boring Co. tunnels.

I have a Kia Carnival, I wish they made something like that. Mini Vans basically have the same room/space as a Large SUV (Suburban, Escalade, etc). Model X may have the same amount of "seats", but no cargo space if you use the seats. With a family and kids, you need the seats for family as well as storage space to take strollers, bags, etc. The rear cargo space in an X is so compact.

I have three kids under 5, and inlaws that visit frequently. So thats 7 seats. And in the Mini Van its comfortable. Plus room to store things/gear for trips. Wish I could get an X but impossible as a replacement. And now no hope that Tesla will do it.

Hopefully in a future event they can release a real Van. Or a Model XL haha.

 

[Crissa]

Don't take this the wrong way, but do you know how a camera works?

That's not how that works.

At all.

...

So while lidar is more accurate to a point, it isn't faster to make the car decide thing - that's entirely up to the driving stack to respond in a timely manner.

Do you know how cameras work, @Kahpernicus ?

-Crissa

 

[Crissa]

Waymo can interact and react faster to new obstacles than fsd can becuse it's nearly instant. A local lidar sensor is truer than an optical camera that has to go through computation.

That's not how that works.

Even if the lidar is on a chip - even if the entire software stack was on a chip...the lidar signal still needs:

1. to be generated,
2. travel to the target,
3. travel back,
4. be interpolated into a position,
5. be meshed into the visual data
6. be decided if it's something the car needs to respond to
7. then the car has to actually respond to it.

The number of steps here are irreducible, even if you can shrink some in time, but not all of them.

-Crissa

 

[TyPope]

My lidar hadn't ever worked... I just use my eyes. Haven't had an accident yet. Imagine how much better I'd be if I had lidar.

 

[TyPope]

neat articla about Lidar and Tesla's FSD
Tesla Robotaxi vs. Waymo vs. Cruise: Here's How They Stack Up (msn.com)

On a personal note:

All those sensors to make LIDAR work make me sad in my pants.

 

[jimbobb23]

Unsupervised does NOT mean robotaxi. Likely unsupervised will be highway first level 3. Then slowly rollout to other parts of cities and slowly go to level 4 and 5. I do not think given state of things we are going from Supervised straight to Robotaxi. It will be a few year process. But given the progress I believe it. Yesterday I finally got FSD on Cybertruck and it took me on a 110 mile drive without interventions except speed. Impressive.

 

[jimbobb23]

Waymo is geofenced, hard coded, has a steering wheel and pedals. The devil is in the details. Regulatory clearance is not going to be easy.

And has frequent remote interventions. But it’s ahead of everyone where it is …Tesla is ahead where it isn’t.

 

[jimbobb23]

This is actually wrong.

Waymo can interact and react faster to new obstacles than fsd can becuse it's nearly instant. A local lidar sensor is truer than an optical camera that has to go through computation.

Waymo also uses visual data, but it's not reliant ONLY on it.

They are both tied into highly evolving maps that change.




They're both fenced due to regulations(safety) and being able to provide accurate mapping. .

This is not true. Or it’s not a “fact” that LiDAR “reacts” faster. Both take data and run it through a model. That’s milliseconds and of no practical difference for either of them. I don’t know what you mean by “truer” but optical is no slower on reacting. The difference in the sensors is currently in dispute. It looks like optical is doing just fine in its approach but ultimately it could be wrong. But lidar isn’t obviously the answer or needed. But it might end up being Tesla was wrong and you need something else - US, radar, LiDar. But humans don’t…so it seems doable.

 

[RandyS]

I too noticed the ‘silver’ (?) sidewalls..

And yes I agree, the Munro wheels are very nice also. Probably my favorite offering so far in regards to style. And it they save a few grams, even better to add to the aero gains…

I was there and took a lot of photos. The car and the tire/cover were a golden color. Honestly, it looked to me like the outer edge of the tire was painted gold to match the body and wheel cover...

By the way, I saw someone tap on the door pretty good and it didn't make a metallic sound. Maybe some sort of composite material?

 

[Crissa]

I was there and took a lot of photos. The car and the tire/cover were a golden color. Honestly, it looked to me like the outer edge of the tire was painted gold to match the body and wheel cover...

By the way, I saw someone tap on the door pretty good and it didn't make a metallic sound. Maybe some sort of composite material?

I've seen reports there were some wooden panels.

-Crissa

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