Your math may be off. Here’s how I’m calculating.
Let’s take the midpoint of your reservations take rates (2.5%; no one knows what non-FS will be but doubt much higher). For sake of argument, let’s assume 5%. That means for every 1k car produced, you will go through 20k reservations.
However...
So if we assume the low take rates which seem to be The case, even if you are a millionth in line, you’d probably get the car next year. This doesn’t even assume a significant ramp.