.

[JBee]

Tesla have also had 3 years to improve the 2019 design. The CT design was already in the works for years beforehand, and was already good back then, but how much better is it now? How much more cost effective?

Don't forget they don't mind sharing IP between SpaceX and Tesla, and SpaceX material science and manufacturing is top level stuff. How many Starships and boosters have they made? How many variants of Stainless did they test?

You'll find all that development is very relevant to CT being stainless as well.

Mars is red from all the iron ore, which will become one of the fundamental materials for for building a Mars colony. CT is stainless because EM needs cheap mass produced Stainless manufacturing so he can make cost effective Starships to launch the gear we need to make a self sustaining colony there.

CT is only a subset of the grand plan, and its profitability to EM will be measured in how low cost and how streamlined it makes stainless Starship manufacturing. Note he is not subsidizing the cost using CTs, rather he is creating his own large market for the product through the CT, then creating the industry to mass produce the materials for the CT at low cost for what he neefs to fly to Mars, and all the technologies he needs to take it with to do it there too.

As EM has said on various occasions Tesla nor Spacex are cash constrained, they can pay in cash, get whatever finance, sell shares to buy whatever they need, but many things just can't be bought. Example: EM has said there is no factory to build great eningeers. Yet Tesla and SpaceX are the most popular companies to work for as a engineering graduate, and they still have to procure more.

As for the affordability of CT requiring another class of buyer, given that the CT could technically outlive many buyers, the product has many cost advantages for a buyer that create even more value, that also needs to be factored in. Given that affordability has more to do cashflow, seeing most finance their purchase anyway, the hit in momentary inflation will be more than compensated for in just reduced fuel costs, especially if you've hedged your consumption with some solar or RE.

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[Throwcomputer]

Tesla have also had 3 years to improve the 2019 design. The CT design was already in the works for years beforehand, and was already good back then, but how much better is it now? How much more cost effective?

Don't forget they don't mind sharing IP between SpaceX and Tesla, and SpaceX material science and manufacturing is top level stuff. How many Starships and boosters have they made? How many variants of Stainless did they test?

You'll find all that development is very relevant to CT being stainless as well.

Mars is red from all the iron ore, which will become one of the fundamental materials for for building a Mars colony. CT is stainless because EM needs cheap mass produced Stainless manufacturing so he can make cost effective Starships to launch the gear we need to make a self sustaining colony there.

CT is only a subset of the grand plan, and its profitability to EM will be measured in how low cost and how streamlined it makes stainless Starship manufacturing. Note he is not subsidizing the cost using CTs, rather he is creating his own large market for the product through the CT, then creating the industry to mass produce the materials for the CT at low cost for what he neefs to fly to Mars, and all the technologies he needs to take it with to do it there too.

As EM has said on various occasions Tesla nor Spacex are cash constrained, they can pay in cash, get whatever finance, sell shares to buy whatever they need, but many things just can't be bought. Example: EM has said there is no factory to build great eningeers. Yet Tesla and SpaceX are the most popular companies to work for as a engineering graduate, and they still have to procure more.

As for the affordability of CT requiring another class of buyer, given that the CT could technically outlive many buyers, the product has many cost advantages for a buyer that create even more value, that also needs to be factored in. Given that affordability has more to do cashflow, seeing most finance their purchase anyway, the hit in momentary inflation will be more than compensated for in just reduced fuel costs, especially if you've hedged your consumption with some solar or RE.

Well said. And an excellent reminder to many who forget that not only is the CT meant to be a high volume product, but that it is also meant to generate a huge demand for the same stainless steel that he needs affordable for Space X. A big argument against the crazy luxury pricing crowd.

 

[Challeco]

How much of the population do you think has 85k to spend on a truck?

If 85k is the going rate to get an EV truck, then i don't see them selling millions of trucks. Do you know another vehicle on the road that sells for 85k and are numbered in the millions.

$85K for a truck is pretty close to the market where I live. Farmers, ranchers, contractors, and people like me who need a truck for DIY projects to keep our sanity and hands busy. Joking aside, the purchase price is not the whole calculation, there is the maintenance, the fuel costs, the economy and practicality. Truck owners are not stupid, nor do any of us want to waste our money. So, if we can afford the price of entry, and I have seen some $100K rigs rolling coal around my area, then the market will bear the purchase price of all levels of the cybertruck. The bottom line is there are close to 1.5M preorders, which even if half of the orders disappear before the production ramp, is still enough to keep the lines at full production for years! That will be enough cybertrucks to make people realize how stupid clinging to I.C.E. really is. One last thing, I still think that E.M. is set on competing directly with the I.C.E. truck market only, so the pricing will be competitive with the cost of ownership of an I.C.E. truck.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I said “their margins will be fine with rational inflation adjustments”.

What I’m suggesting is people are going way beyond rational inflation adjustments. We haven’t seen 50% inflation, yet here we’re talking about 50% price increases on the Cybertruck. That is not rational inflation adjustment, that’s fear driven hyperbole.

The Cybertruck was the better value at launch, it was the better value when Ford launched the F150. If Tesla increases prices on par with what competitors have, it will remain the better value. Tesla has massive pricing advantage on their batteries. They also have a significantly more efficient design which will reduce the battery size for the same range.

This ultimately boils down to the idea that you think Tesla priced the Cybertruck poorly to begin with.

It also boils down to a belief that Tesla is just like every other auto maker (and almost every other company) with respect to profit. Just last week Elon was talking about the supercharging station in Santa Monica and said it probably isn't a sound idea financially but that it will be cool. Is that something Jim Farly would say? So, we have the Tesla vision and their history, their efficiency and technological lead, their large profit margins, and their willingness to burn some cash to do what they want - and they want to put out an electric pickup that will blow the doors off the industry. I still believe that this means that they will raise prices if they have to, and only as much as they have to, and only for as long as they have to.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Isn't this literally what this post is about. Speculating on cost and demand. If speculating is a problem they should moderate speculating threads better.

If we removed all non-factual content (including so-called articles written by so-called journalists) from this forum there would be precious little remaining (e.g., all my comments would be gone, hurray?!).

 

[charliemagpie]

Yet.. its not burning cash, we are talking about it.


Musky is a sly old fox !!!

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