Cybertruck spotted undergoing testing at proving ground in Shafter, CA -- Oct 17

[CompMaster]

I knew it was Alien tech!! The CT in its natural habit is conformable enough to show us its real form. The combination of those antennas and the BAW must be its comunication hardware since the rest is all glass and metal.

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[sstevens805]

That's 10 minutes away from me. It's not a proving ground, it's an old beat ass strip used for small private planes, motorcycle license training, and car shows.

 

[intimidator]

Cybertruck validation is still ongoing. We may not see retail sales until early 2024.

I keep asking this question.

All this "testing" the last 30-45 days would suggest that the design is not final. Sure, it is mostly final, but for example what if the testing yesterday shows that in cornering the sway bar has the wrong geometry? Or, the passenger door panel rattles? Or, there is body "booming"?

I am sure some folks will say this testing means nothing.....but it does. That is why they call it testing. You use those test results to go back and make changes. Hopefully they aren't finding anything major.

 

[intimidator]

Oz?

I purchased a 2023 Lightning Lariat as I wait for my November 2019 Cybertruck reservation.
I assumed you did also.

I am glad I did. I think we are going to be waiting until well into 2025, and the Ford Lightning has been a great vehicle and I enjoy many of its features.

 

[Mini2nut]

I agree that it's not looking good for retail sales this year.

 

[TyPope]

I keep asking this question.

All this "testing" the last 30-45 days would suggest that the design is not final. Sure, it is mostly final, but for example what if the testing yesterday shows that in cornering the sway bar has the wrong geometry? Or, the passenger door panel rattles? Or, there is body "booming"?

I am sure some folks will say this testing means nothing.....but it does. That is why they call it testing. You use those test results to go back and make changes. Hopefully they aren't finding anything major.

They are probably just tweaking software specific to the Cybertruck. Tesla doesn't have many vehicles that can change ride heights (Model S) or that have 4-wheel steering so it makes sense that once programmed, they may have to make some changes. Do the rear wheels crab with the front wheels (like when you are changing lanes)? When? At what cutoff? What happens when the viewpoint of the camera is raised 8 inches? When hauling a trailer, how does the Cybertruck figure out what "level" is if the truck is not parked level?

There is a whole slew of things they could be testing. Driving around random places does not really help them test for hardware tweaks. I mean, suppose in the video above, the Cybertruck goes around a curve and the tester says "Hey, the sway bar feels too loose." Okay, what then? Do they manufacture a change and then take it back to the exact same curve at the exact same speed to see if it's improved? No, it's more likely they are seeing if tweaks to software work in multiple environments.

That's my two cents.

 

[Setok]

You don’t actually still believe that do you?

Me? I never believed it. I think if you'll read my comment it was directed at those who might.

 

[Bkent100]

I keep asking this question.

All this "testing" the last 30-45 days would suggest that the design is not final. Sure, it is mostly final, but for example what if the testing yesterday shows that in cornering the sway bar has the wrong geometry? Or, the passenger door panel rattles? Or, there is body "booming"?

I am sure some folks will say this testing means nothing.....but it does. That is why they call it testing. You use those test results to go back and make changes. Hopefully they aren't finding anything major.

Almost every picture shows a proving ground that my Honda accord could easily master!!

 

[Kahpernicus]

I keep asking this question.

All this "testing" the last 30-45 days would suggest that the design is not final. Sure, it is mostly final, but for example what if the testing yesterday shows that in cornering the sway bar has the wrong geometry? Or, the passenger door panel rattles? Or, there is body "booming"?

I am sure some folks will say this testing means nothing.....but it does. That is why they call it testing. You use those test results to go back and make changes. Hopefully they aren't finding anything major.

Validation is different from "testing".

 

[HaulingAss]

All this "testing" the last 30-45 days would suggest that the design is not final. Sure, it is mostly final, but for example what if the testing yesterday shows that in cornering the sway bar has the wrong geometry? Or, the passenger door panel rattles? Or, there is body "booming"?

We have seen Cybertruck testing for years now, it's nothing new. Tesla will continue to test and validate changes long after you or I have one. They are still improving the Model 3, seven years later! If they find a door rattle, they will track it down, isolate it, and fix it.

 

[LexusCyber]

keeping the dream alive! this is the test I want to see:

 

[intimidator]

They are probably just tweaking software specific to the Cybertruck. Tesla doesn't have many vehicles that can change ride heights (Model S) or that have 4-wheel steering so it makes sense that once programmed, they may have to make some changes. Do the rear wheels crab with the front wheels (like when you are changing lanes)? When? At what cutoff? What happens when the viewpoint of the camera is raised 8 inches? When hauling a trailer, how does the Cybertruck figure out what "level" is if the truck is not parked level?

There is a whole slew of things they could be testing. Driving around random places does not really help them test for hardware tweaks. I mean, suppose in the video above, the Cybertruck goes around a curve and the tester says "Hey, the sway bar feels too loose." Okay, what then? Do they manufacture a change and then take it back to the exact same curve at the exact same speed to see if it's improved? No, it's more likely they are seeing if tweaks to software work in multiple environments.

That's my two cents.

Now we know.

The Launch party is November 30th. (Pretty much December 1st)
So it is ready.

In the meantime the "experts" are predicting about 75,000 units in 2024.
Which aligns with Elon saying it would take about 18 months to ramp the Cybertruck to enough production that would allow Tesla to make a profit on it. Elon also said capacity will about about 250,000. If we want to guess, the hope is that 250,000 will be built in 2025.

If you are waiting for a Cybertruck, that is about 325,000 combined for 2024 & 2025.

 

[Crissa]

...

Elon also said capacity will about about 250,000. If we want to guess, the hope is that 250,000 will be built in 2025.

If you are waiting for a Cybertruck, that is about 325,000 combined for 2024 & 2025.

No, that's just over 200k for the two years. Because they will only reach 5k/week 13 to 18 months after the delivery event, the profitable point. They need to make ~5k/week all year to make 250k per year.

And if they still have a million preorders at that point, and no difficulty finding people to fork over the cash for more, they'll keep ramping.

If not, well, that's their offramp.

-Crissa

 

[intimidator]

No, that's just over 200k for the two years. Because they will only reach 5k/week 13 to 18 months after the delivery event, the profitable point. They need to make ~5k/week all year to make 250k per year.

And if they still have a million preorders at that point, and no difficulty finding people to fork over the cash for more, they'll keep ramping.

If not, well, that's their offramp.

-Crissa

Aaah, Right. 200,000 by the end of 2025. Ouch.

That is not going to satisfy the mob.

Next up is the price, and range. If the range is "only" 375 miles, for example, and the price is $79K, the mob won't be satisfied.

I am keeping my November 2019 reservation, but it might be Christmas 2025 before I get mine. Glad I bought a Lariat Lightning to use and enjoy in the meantime. This could help Rivian sell a few more R1Ts and Ford to sell some Lightnings.

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