WildhavenMI

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All other historical references make me pessimistic and I think more of a typical earnings call with a few brief updates. What COULD make this different is the "product roadmap update" tweet (a MAP is something visual)... but the fact the Elon chose the earnings call as the format.... back to pessimistic on how much will be announced... sigh.

All the waiting turns me into a crazy person talking to myself in circles. That then leads me here, to post to those who can also talk in circles with no new information o_O:LOL:
YyBM5OH.jpeg

 

FutureBoy

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13 days to go…

Tesla Earnings call set for Wednesday, January 26th at 2:30PM Pacific/4:30PM Central/5:30PM Eastern Time.


FE6476B7-89B0-47FA-8B51-0CACEF53C28A.jpeg
AAAAAHHHHHH, can I change my order to Quad motor CAMO and not loose my place in line!!!!???
You can get it in camo as long as the camo is Starship SS in color. The best camo for hiding your CT among the millions of other CTs that are going to get produced any day now.

But yes, that camo is pretty nice. Would make for a good wrap I'd say.
 

TyPope

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I wonder how much info we'll get on January 26th vs. the rumored "big news" thing in March...
Big Tesla News
 

GnarlyDudeLive

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I don't think we'll get a pricing update on this call, but I think we will eventually and I think it will increase. I think the $39,000 CT will become like the $35,000 M3 - maybe technically available off book, and not for a long time, and only for a few months at that.

I think we're probably going to see something along the lines of 140kWh battery pack. Even if they have managed to hit the magical $100/kWh with this new structural pack, we're talking about a $14,000 battery pack alone.

I know the composite isn't known, but if we're ballparking materials 304L in 11ga (~3mm) is $2,600 per 5x10. If we need at least three of those to produce one cybertruck, we are say another $7,500 in exoskeleton material costs.

Now I have no idea how much everything else in that vehicle costs, but battery and exoskeleton alone is likely to be north of $20,000. I don't see how they can turn that into a functioning truck and even break-even for just another 19,000.
My thoughts,

1. I doubt the single motor $39k variant will have a 140kWh battery more like ~100kWh (maybe smaller even)
2. The 4680 cells are suppose to be almost 1/2 the cost so perhaps $500/kWh (realistically $650) with the introduction of the structural battery pack.

I can see a single motor version still being profitable for Tesla even at $39K. Now the dual/tri/quad variants should even be far more profitable being a motor + more battery should not cost Tesla as much as the mark up between the versions.
 

OneLapper

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I don't think we'll get a pricing update on this call, but I think we will eventually and I think it will increase. I think the $39,000 CT will become like the $35,000 M3 - maybe technically available off book, and not for a long time, and only for a few months at that.

I think we're probably going to see something along the lines of 140kWh battery pack. Even if they have managed to hit the magical $100/kWh with this new structural pack, we're talking about a $14,000 battery pack alone.

I know the composite isn't known, but if we're ballparking materials 304L in 11ga (~3mm) is $2,600 per 5x10. If we need at least three of those to produce one cybertruck, we are say another $7,500 in exoskeleton material costs.

Now I have no idea how much everything else in that vehicle costs, but battery and exoskeleton alone is likely to be north of $20,000. I don't see how they can turn that into a functioning truck and even break-even for just another 19,000.

I just ordered 10 sheets of 11ga 304L 5x10', cost was $4.13/lbs or $832.61 per. Weight per sheet is 201.6 pounds.

That price is twice what is was two years ago, btw.

I would think that at Tesla's volume they have to be paying about half of what my little shop is paying.
 


Dusty

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As others have said, people shouldn't expect any pricing information. The closest you'll get is "we're looking at how to keep it the same". They won't say "higher" if they don't have to. Also, they may confirm or debunk variants of CT if someone asks the question properly. They may also detail where they are in regards to final feature designs and if they're finished designing for real.

And, they'll either say the CT is on track and either ordering this year with a "handful of CTs produced before the end of the year" or "Ordering late in 2022 with deliveries in Q(x) 2023".

In my tiny head that sounds the most realistic.

The weirdest thing is that there hasn't been a single leak of offroad testing. Where exactly are they driving the CT offroad? They have to be offroad somewhere and you'd figure someone would have seen it.

The questions I hope are asked:

- Has there been offroad testing?

- Has there been any thought given to allowing CT buyers to pick up their CT at GigaFactory instead of having them delivered?

(if they confirm only dual and quad variants to be initially built)
- How will reservation sequential orders be handled (or not) to accomodate picking which motor variant the reservation holder wants?
 
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WildhavenMI

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The weirdest thing is that there hasn't been a single leak of offroad testing. Where exactly are they driving the CT offroad? They have to be offroad somewhere and you'd figure someone would have seen it.
I've always wondered where Tesla's facilities akin to GM's "Milford Testing Center" and the Kapuskasing testing center are. Presumably they have a Kapuskasing-like facility out in the middle of nowhere.
 

FutureBoy

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I've always wondered where Tesla's facilities akin to GM's "Milford Testing Center" and the Kapuskasing testing center are. Presumably they have a Kapuskasing-like facility out in the middle of nowhere.
So on the map, it’s somewhere behind one of the “Here be Dragons” indicators?
 

uff_da

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I've always wondered where Tesla's facilities akin to GM's "Milford Testing Center" and the Kapuskasing testing center are. Presumably they have a Kapuskasing-like facility out in the middle of nowhere.
This has been my single biggest red flag relative to delivery timeline. Maybe they are really good at hiding it, but the community is pretty dang diligent on spotting things out in the wild. I think a truck this different in architecture would need a fair amount of real world testing. Its not like iterating the M3 to MY...

I think they know they won't have 4680 production to support CT in 2022 so they are taking the time to continue to iterate the design but I sure wish they had more alpha/beta vehicles driving around getting beat on (que "Ford proving grounds" b-role).


Glad my Model Y will be here this spring to hold me over :)
 


WildhavenMI

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So on the map, it’s somewhere behind one of the “Here be Dragons” indicators?
Likely. I've been to the Milford proving grounds a number of times, and even with the facility that surrounded by people in that well known a location does tend to keep secrets pretty well. When I was working on the "BEV2" now known as the Bolt there were very few leaks, and the spy shots that did make it out were from very far away with very crappy telescopic lenses.

I've never seen anything leak out of The cold weather facility but at the same time I also don't think too much goes on there in advance
 

Crissa

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Tesla said they were testing the Model Y there in Alaska currently for their software patch. No spy shots for that, either.

-Crissa
 

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Tesla said they were testing the Model Y there in Alaska currently for their software patch. No spy shots for that, either.

-Crissa
The spy shot would be a nondescript model Y driving down a 2 lane road in Alaska. Not a head-turning event.

I'd think a CT driving through a town on its way to an offroad testing course, or coming back covered in mud would get a pic or two, over two years. Now I do remember someone seeing a CT headed towards an area south of San Diego once. I'll look for it, but no one bothered to see where it went.

Edit: Nope it was a sighting of a dirty lifted model Y headed back to the Tesla factory in Fremont.
 
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