First Down Year In Deliveries

[SCTesla]

It's looking like the F-150 Lightning may have outsold the Cybertruck in the US during 4Q 2024.

Ford just reported 10,703 F-150 Lightning sales in the US during 4Q 2024.

Tesla won't release exact numbers for the CT, but they can't be much higher, and may be lower. Tesla will only reveal that there were a total of 23,640 deliveries of the Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck globally during 4Q 2024. Troy Teslike estimates that 9,600 of those were Cybertruck deliveries in the US.

Troy is typically pretty dead on as he follows registrations. CT sold the most as an EV truck in North America, though.

Sponsored

 

[YDR37]

Troy is typically pretty dead on as he follows registrations. CT sold the most as an EV truck in North America, though.

Not necessarily. The 10,703 number for the F-150 Lightning is only for US sales in 4Q 2024, so I compared to Troy's estimate for US Cybertruck sales. The Lightning, like the CT, is also available in Canada, but I don't see any numbers for Ford sales in Canada as yet. Lightning sales in North America should be larger than the number for the US alone.

 

[HaulingAss]

It's not clear that the F-150 Lightning is profitable for Ford. On the other hand, it's not clear that the non-Foundation Cybertruck is profitable for Tesla.

It's abundantly clear that the Ford Lightning loses tens of thousands of dollars per unit sold.

That's not competition, that's clearing them out at a loss. Using that logic, I could have a very competitive business selling ounces of gold for $2000. No one else could compete! ?

How much market share do you think I could get?

Answer: I would be bankrupt before I could get to 1% market share.

The non-Foundation Cybertruck will create substantial profits in 2025 via battery cost reductions by bringing cathode production in house, combined with manufacturing efficiencies realized by a year of production experience and higher volume/lower cost supplier contracts. On the other hand, Ford can't increase volumes of the Lightning because they would lose even more money. And they don't make their own batteries (or a lot of other components that Tesla makes in-house).

 

[SCTesla]

It's true, the Lightning is not profitable for Ford.

 

[MadMaxTX]

I'm very confident TSLA will never trade below $300 again. It's actually a screaming buy right here in the high $300's if you have a two year time horizon. It will probably happen a lot sooner than that but it's good to give yourself enough time. Honestly, most investors have a lot longer of a time horizon if they are investing for retirement.

AI and robotics are about to propel TSLA to unbelievable new highs. There will be violent moves to the upside that will be impossible to time reliably. Grid scale battery storage is going to help. Tesla just opened it's vertically integrated Megapack Gigafactory in Shanghai and is already producing cells and Megapacks. It only took them 7 months to build the factory and get it running! The thing is a cash printing machine but AI in the form of humanoid robots and self-driving car technology will dwarf it.

Every investor who thinks of Tesla as primarily an automaker is going to miss out on huge profits because those kinds of investors will always think TSLA is too expensive for an automaker. The joke will be on them. The best way to profit is to buy and hold. Dollar cost average to build a position as large as possible.




What competition? The Ram EV truck? The Sierra and Silverado EV truck? The F-150 Lightning? Are you kidding me? Those things cost around $110-$150K just to manufacture and are basically pieces of crap compared to a Dual Motor Cybertruck for under $80K.

Nobody in their right mind could consider them serious competition when they have to sell them for many 10's of thousands of dollars less than they cost to manufacture! That's not competition, that's slitting their own throats! And their gas and diesel options keep getting more expensive to make while the Cybertruck gets cheaper.

Please tell me you are joking!

My concern about competition is general, over the whole line, and long term, not near term. Not for the CT. Lots of companies will challenge on EVs. My concern over CT is what I said: how many at what price. CT could take over the truck market. Or maybe not. But there are lots of factors in CT sales and we'll just have to see.

On stock timing, it is definitely tricky and generally, I don't try to do that. However, there are a few situations that work for me. The petroleum sector has been good in that regard. Just buy when everybody is saying it is dead. The last one was in the pandemic. But you can't go for the absolute peaks or valleys. They will zoom right past you. And like I said, generally, I don't do it.

 

[YDR37]

It's abundantly clear that the Ford Lightning loses tens of thousands of dollars per unit sold.

It's true, the Lightning is not profitable for Ford.

Not disputing this. But Ford sells far more ICE and hybrid F-150s than Lightnings, and those are profitable. They can probably afford to subsidize the Lightning for a while.

Ford's primary path to electrification is through hybrids. In May 2024, around 20-25% of new F-150s were hybrids, and that number is probably higher now.

 

[Deleted member 17810]

If you look at the numbers, the slight down turn in deliveries is dangerous for a major launch of a recent vehicle for a company. Especially one who has a small lineup.

 

[HaulingAss]

Not disputing this. But Ford sells far more ICE and hybrid F-150s than Lightnings, and those are profitable. They can probably afford to subsidize the Lightning for a while.

Ford's primary path to electrification is through hybrids. In May 2024, around 20-25% of new F-150s were hybrids, and that number is probably higher now.

Hybrids are ICE vehicles.

The best path to EVs is to make better EVs. Making a hybrid will not help the manufacturer or the consumer.

Imagine you are a new car buyer in 2026 and you typically keep your cars 6 years before selling. You buy a hybrid for $50K. Now imagine trying to re-sell a car that still has a gas engine in 2032! Talk about depreciation!

 

[HaulingAss]

If you look at the numbers, the slight down turn in deliveries is dangerous for a major launch of a recent vehicle for a company. Especially one who has a small lineup.

Don't you anti-Tesla prognosticators ever tire of being wrong?

A small lineup is one of Tesla's strengths and how they are able to deliver so much value for so little money. And value matters more to most new car buyers than how many models they have in their lineup. Never bet against Elon Musk, he can think circles around Mary Barra and Jim Farley.

 

[HaulingAss]

Not disputing this. But Ford sells far more ICE and hybrid F-150s than Lightnings, and those are profitable. They can probably afford to subsidize the Lightning for a while.

Ford is having trouble getting rid of their expensive 2024 ICE trucks. Have you seen this video:



2025 is here!

 

[YDR37]

Ford is having trouble getting rid of their expensive 2024 ICE trucks. Have you seen this video:

2025 is here!

Tesla is having trouble getting rid of their expensive 2024 EV trucks. Have you seen current Foundation Series inventory?

2025 is here!

F-150 sales actually rose slightly in 2024, relative to 2023. However, it's true that sales of less expensive Ford trucks (Ranger, Maverick) rose a lot more. All truck manufacturers, Tesla included, should be working to reduce prices in 2025.

 

[SCTesla]

Tesla is having trouble getting rid of their expensive 2024 EV trucks. Have you seen current Foundation Series inventory?

2025 is here!

F-150 sales actually rose slightly in 2024, relative to 2023. However, it's true that sales of less expensive Ford trucks (Ranger, Maverick) rose a lot more. All truck manufacturers, Tesla included, should be working to reduce prices in 2025.

People always want to compare the CT to the F150 Limited and Platinum, but those aren't the trucks that Ford makes those numbers with. There's been a ton of random numbers thrown around but it looks like those represent less than 10% of Ford sales. Most, by far, are the XL or XLT which are bare bones trucks that start out at ~38k.

 

[Deleted member 17810]

People always want to compare the CT to the F150 Limited and Platinum, but those aren't the trucks that Ford makes those numbers with. There's been a ton of random numbers thrown around but it looks like those represent less than 10% of Ford sales. Most, by far, are the XL or XLT which are bare bones trucks that start out at ~38k.

The high end models of the CT shouldn't be compared tot he high end f 150 trims?

 

[SCTesla]

The high end models of the CT shouldn't be compared tot he high end f 150 trims?

No. They are using that comparison when people say, "There's not much of a market for 80k+ vehicles", then people say "Ford sold 700k trucks, look at their prices". It's misleading. Ford is mostly selling their bottom of the line trucks to fleet and consumers or when they point out that Ford is having trouble selling their top of the line models. It's saying the same thing, there's a limited buyer pool for $80k+ trucks. It's an issue for the CT, but not for Ford as they've historically been a low % of sales.

 

[Deleted member 17810]

No. They are using that comparison when people say, "There's not much of a market for 80k+ vehicles", then people say "Ford sold 700k trucks, look at their prices". It's misleading. Ford is mostly selling their bottom of the line trucks to fleet and consumers or when they point out that Ford is having trouble selling their top of the line models. It's saying the same thing, there's a limited buyer pool for $80k+ trucks. It's an issue for the CT, but not for Ford as they've historically been a low % of sales.

That's the point.

Right now, tesla isn't putting out a lower cost option.

It's been what, a year now since the first FS trucks came out, that they arguable have milked.

Sponsored