First Down Year In Deliveries

[SCTesla]

That's the point.

Right now, tesla isn't putting out a lower cost option.

It's been what, a year now since the first FS trucks came out, that they arguable have milked.

Yes. That's our point. People tey to claim that all trucks at 80k

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[Carnut12]

The competition is real, Tesla’s huge advantage is the charging network, now it’s available to most other EV’s. Build quality, the horrible service centers, and overall lack of customer service will catch up to Tesla, likely it is already doing so. I sat in a Sierra EV the other day, the build quality is light years ahead. BMW build quality is light years ahead of my Model S. I really like my Tesla for many reasons, but every time I get service I’m tempted to change brands. Trying to call anyone and get an actual person when you have issues is impossible. They seem to only respond on the App when it’s a question or comment that isn’t an issue. Tesla is still the best at EV’s, but if you think the gap isn’t closing you aren’t opening your eyes.

 

[HaulingAss]

Tesla is having trouble getting rid of their expensive 2024 EV trucks. Have you seen current Foundation Series inventory?

Your link only showed 191 new Cybertrucks of any kind in inventory. Do you think that's a lot? Did you watch the video I linked about legacy truck inventory?

F-150 sales actually rose slightly in 2024, relative to 2023. However, it's true that sales of less expensive Ford trucks (Ranger, Maverick) rose a lot more. All truck manufacturers, Tesla included, should be working to reduce prices in 2025.

That's not what Ford's recent press release said. It's not F-150 sales that rose slightly in 2024, that statistic is combining sales of all F-series Fords, including trucks, vans, commercial F-series trucks, everything F-series. I would bet dollars to donuts the sales of ICE F-150's (the only profitable F-150's) are actually down in 2024. Yes, hybrids are ICE vehicles.

Ford has gotten away with marketing sales statistics of all "F-series" while comparing the numbers to single models of other manufacturers for far too long. Because a commercial F-series is hardly related to an F-150, a Model 3 is more similar to a Model X than an F-150 is to an F-350 and above.

I'm guessing their commercial truck sales have picked up enough to cover declines in F-150 sales. That's a whole different market.

 

[HaulingAss]

Tesla is still the best at EV’s, but if you think the gap isn’t closing you aren’t opening your eyes.

So, you're saying the Tesla killers are still coming (they're just a few years late)?

OK, cool!

Watch how it actually plays out. Tesla was born to keep increasing production and lowering costs.

 

[YDR37]

That's not what Ford's recent press release said. It's not F-150 sales that rose slightly in 2024, that statistic is combining sales of all F-series Fords, including trucks, vans, commercial F-series trucks, everything F-series. I would bet dollars to donuts the sales of ICE F-150's (the only profitable F-150's) are actually down in 2024.

OK, you're right. The Ford numbers are for the F-Series, not just the F-150. And your proposed bet is unresolvable, because (as far as I know) Ford never breaks out the numbers for the F-150 specifically.

But suppose we switch from Ford to GM. After all, GM should be even better as a proxy for the state of the ICE pickup market, because GM's two truck brands (Chevrolet and GMC) collectively outsell the F-Series. Yes, Ford always brags that the F-Series is the #1 truck brand, but that's only true because GM sales are divided between two closely-related brands.

And GM does break out the numbers for their LD trucks (Chevrolet Silverado 1500 and GMC Sierra 1500) specifically. And for 2024, both LD truck lines had increased sales relative to 2023.

Based on GM's results, my guess would be that ICE F-150 sales rose as well. But I acknowledge that this is unresolvable.

 

[YDR37]

Your link only showed 191 new Cybertrucks of any kind in inventory.

it only shows the Foundation Series in inventory; it does not include non-Foundation. And it actually it shows a bit more than 191 FS; they don't have separate boxes for duplicate trucks (i.e. same specs, same location). If you click in one of the boxes, it will show more details, including total US availability for that model. As of right now, that's 150 FS AWD and 138 FS Cyberbeasts, so 288 total. This number is obviously subject to change; it goes down as CTs get bought, but it can also go up if more FS CTs are released to the inventory system.

Do you think that's a lot? Did you watch the video I linked about legacy truck inventory?

I looked at the video, but unfortunately it didn't have any numbers. I happen to like numbers.

So here are some numbers. At cars.com, there are currently 57,365 new 2024 ICE F-150s on sale. Of those, only 1,122 are priced at $90,000 or more. That's roughly 4 times the number of currently available FS CTs. We can be confident that the ICE F-150 outsold the FS in 2024 by a factor of much more than 4. So proportionately, yes, 288 FS CTs does seem like a lot.

Some people on this forum expected the FS to be long gone by now. For example, check out this old post from November 15, 2024:

Basically, when Tesla was ending the Foundation Series they produced a surplus of them (because they have higher margins) but they have sold through almost all of them. They will be gone within a week, mark my words. It's possible there are few that got lost from the system, for various reasons, but they are basically all gone.

So anyway, here we are in January 2025, and there are still 288 FS CTs, with a total retail value over $30 million, sitting in Tesla's inventory system. They don't seem to be selling, even with free lifetime Supercharging. Do you think that's a lot?

 

[Carnut12]

it only shows the Foundation Series in inventory; it does not include non-Foundation. And it actually it shows a bit more than 191 FS; they don't have separate boxes for duplicate trucks (i.e. same specs, same location). If you click in one of the boxes, it will show more details, including total US availability for that model. As of right now, that's 150 FS AWD and 138 FS Cyberbeasts, so 288 total. This number is obviously subject to change; it goes down as CTs get bought, but it can also go up if more FS CTs are released to the inventory system.
I looked at the video, but unfortunately it didn't have any numbers. I happen to like numbers.

So here are some numbers. At cars.com, there are currently 57,365 new 2024 ICE F-150s on sale. Of those, only 1,122 are priced at $90,000 or more. That's roughly 4 times the number of currently available FS CTs. We can be confident that the ICE F-150 outsold the FS in 2024 by a factor of much more than 4. So proportionately, yes, 288 FS CTs does seem like a lot.

Some people on this forum expected the FS to be long gone by now. For example, check out this old post from November 15, 2024:

So anyway, here we are in January 2025, and there are still 288 FS CTs, with a total retail value over $30 million, sitting in Tesla's inventory system. They don't seem to be selling, even with free lifetime Supercharging. Do you think that's a lot?

Well written, one other major factor is Ford has a dealer network, part of their strategy is to carry inventory, big dealers carry 150 plus trucks and turn them every month or 2. With the amount of models and options available you have to carry many trucks to attract customers so they can compare. Tesla has showrooms/delivery centers, they choose not to carry inventory. This is a MUCH more profitable strategy if it works. So far it’s working great. They also have essentially 2-4 options, you essentially only need 2 trucks in stock to see every option.

One more note you’re wasting your time arguing with someone that will never admit Tesla has any opportunity.

 

[REM]

It's not FUD when investors and business analysts are speaking and Tesla stocks are being dumped and now down -5.36%.

And yes, I own a CT, family of Tesla owners and a hurting stockholder.

If you want to assign a particular even in a sea of events to stock movement, as well as give "business analysts" credit for accurately reading the tea leaves, then go right ahead.

Just know it's all opinion.

 

[REM]

And ...another who doesn't know the difference between facts and opinions lmao.

 

[BannedByTMC]

Yet the media ignores that, preferring to call Tesla's model lineup "aging" and you just lap it up!

My eyes function, as do most people's.

 

[REM]

Like it or not that's what the general public sees, vehicles that are essentially unchanged since introduction.

You must not talk to people outside of your bubble. I have talked to thousands of people in my travels all over the U.S. since my first Tesla in 2020. Random people seem to know that the 2021 model 3's are the ones that started coming with the heat pump (also indicating that they understand range loss during the colder months). ?‍

 

[GFleck]

It's not FUD when investors and business analysts are speaking and Tesla stocks are being dumped and now down -5.36%.

And yes, I own a CT, family of Tesla owners and a hurting stockholder.

Hurting stockholder?? Tesla is up 1344% over last 5 years, 72% over last year, 74% in 2024, 67% in the last 3 months. What do you want from a stock? Unless you're a fear based emotional buy and sell type that constantly buys the peaks and sells the vallys, Tesla had been an amazing stock to own.

 

[YDR37]

one other major factor is Ford has a dealer network, part of their strategy is to carry inventory, big dealers carry 150 plus trucks and turn them every month or 2. With the amount of models and options available you have to carry many trucks to attract customers so they can compare. Tesla has showrooms/delivery centers, they choose not to carry inventory. This is a MUCH more profitable strategy if it works.

You're right. Tesla's "direct-to-consumer" (DTC) business model eliminates the traditional dealer as middleman, and this has clear advantages for the manufacturer. That's why Rivian and Lucid have followed Tesla and gone with DTC. Even VW, which has a traditional dealer network, is trying to go DTC for their new Scout EV brand (although VW dealers are not happy and are suing).

However, there can be a disadvantage to DTC, if a manufacturer overestimates the demand for a particular model and overproduces it. A traditional manufacturer can force the dealers to accept excess inventory; then it gets off the manufacturer's books and becomes the dealer's problem. A DTC manufacturer like Tesla doesn't have that option; any excess inventory stays on the manufacturer's books and remains the manufacturer"s problem. Hypothetically.

 

[Crissa]

Tesla misses expectations

https://www.reuters.com/business/au...ll-annual-deliveries-demand-slows-2025-01-02/

It's kinda weird, I knew they'd miss expectations, so why were institutional investors expecting so much?

Tesla didn't get to turn on the spigot of their new 4680 factory, it was still a trickle.

I believe it's the first year Tesla has gone down in deliveries. Just a few years ago they were increasing by 30% YoY, which obviously isn't sustainable.

It's pretty sustainable when you're only 2% of the total addressed market.

-Crissa

 

[dalton108]

Troy is typically pretty dead on as he follows registrations. CT sold the most as an EV truck in North America, though.

Thanks for posting this. So I’m seeing 33,514 CT’s in 2024 and you’re confident that that number is correct. Do you happen to know how many were moved in 2023? 600? Less? I’m still trying to get a bead on how many of these would’ve been FS/CB’s.

I know I’m obsessed, but I really would like to know. Definitively.

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