Fortune favors the patient

Crissa

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Even with a 50% drop in pre orders the CT will have more order requests than the F150L, Rivian and GM combined.
Exactly. Ford pre-orders were capped at 200k, they might deliver 15k this year. Rivian still had 71k after delivering 2k this spring. There were 65k Hummer pre-orders (tho that went down to 59k after delivering a few hundred) and reported 110k Silverado pre-orders.

Tesla stopped counting after 400k reservations, the good money is they have near a million. Even if everyone who has another EV truck on reservation has a Cybertruck reservation too... that's still more than 50% of pre-orders remaining.

Let alone the other manufacturers ability to actually deliver their trucks. Which, as Elon said, is hard.

Tesla is probably assuming that a certain percentage of reservations will cancel no matter what, and they have the numbers from the Model S, Model X, Model 3, and Model Y to back them up. Yes, with the CT the reservation fee was less than for the other models and that will play into it. It would not surprise me if 30+% of the reservations are dropped (for whatever reason). Probably more as you move down the reservation position line.
Even Tesla's slowest/worst roll out - the Model 3 - had only 25% loss and Tesla did eventually sell the car for two years at the price announced four years earlier.
https://electrek.co/2018/06/04/tesla-model-3-reservations-refunded-report/
https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesla-model-3-price-range-msrp-increase/

-Crissa
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Macgyverfever

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Exactly. Ford pre-orders were capped at 200k, they might deliver 15k this year. Rivian still had 71k after delivering 2k this spring. There were 65k Hummer pre-orders (tho that went down to 59k after delivering a few hundred) and reported 110k Silverado pre-orders.

Tesla stopped counting after 400k reservations, the good money is they have near a million. Even if everyone who has another EV truck on reservation has a Cybertruck reservation too... that's still more than 50% of pre-orders remaining.

Let alone the other manufacturers ability to actually deliver their trucks. Which, as Elon said, is hard.


Even Tesla's slowest/worst roll out - the Model 3 - had only 25% loss and Tesla did eventually sell the car for two years at the price announced four years earlier.
https://electrek.co/2018/06/04/tesla-model-3-reservations-refunded-report/
https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesla-model-3-price-range-msrp-increase/

-Crissa
Well I eat humble pie everyday especially when it comes to Crissa's counter-analysis :D

I really hope I'm right but
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