FSD Lottery (just an idea)

[xenotek]

What if every time you pay $99 for a month of FSD, you automatically receive one entry for a chance to win lifetime FSD. The prize could either be tied to the VIN or tied to the owner’s account and transferable to future vehicles. The odds could vary on a sliding scale — for example 1–5% depending on promotions or time of year.

To make it fair for long-term subscribers, there could also be a guarantee: after a set number of consecutive months (say 36 or 48), you automatically receive lifetime FSD. In other words, you either win early by chance or eventually earn it through loyalty.

This would make the $99 subscription feel less like a pure rental and more like something with real upside. It rewards consistency, encourages longer commitments, and gives customers a clear path to permanent ownership without requiring a large upfront payment.

At what percentage chance of winning lifetime FSD would you personally feel $99 a month is worth it — 1%, 3%, 5%? And how many guaranteed months would feel fair?

Sponsored

 

[TexasDev]

Kind of makes no sense from a business perspective.
Means your customers that are willing to pay will eventually never have to pay.

Then you get even more issues of "why can't I transfer X lifetime to Y".
Once you give out something free, hard to start charging for it again.

Eventually all of your long term subscribers are on lifetime, who pays for the improvements? Is the rate of new user adoption enough?

Essentially you created a roundabout "rent to own" for FSD. And Tesla doesn't want you to "own" FSD.

 

[mitch9]

how does this align with Elons 10 year compensation package, where one of the goals is "10 million active FSD subscriptions"?

 

[xenotek]

how does this align with Elons 10 year compensation package, where one of the goals is "10 million active FSD subscriptions"?

It could potentially make millions of owners start "playing the lottery." Teslas are pretty cool to ride in for first time non-tesla owners, but only a small portion of those are with FSD. I think it could lead to more "advertising" in the real-world for tesla and well worth the investment for them. Does a fully-purchased FSD customer not count as an "active FSD subscription" for Elon?

 

[SCTesla]

It could potentially make millions of owners start "playing the lottery." Teslas are pretty cool to ride in for first time non-tesla owners, but only a small portion of those are with FSD. I think it could lead to more "advertising" in the real-world for tesla and well worth the investment for them. Does a fully-purchased FSD customer not count as an "active FSD subscription" for Elon?

Maybe 1 per year, but it's a bad business model to do 1 per month and worse to give it everyone for free after a period of time.

I bet Tesla will have incentives in thr future for included FSD subscription, but they are definitely ending ownership of it

 

[xenotek]

Kind of makes no sense from a business perspective.
Means your customers that are willing to pay will eventually never have to pay.

Then you get even more issues of "why can't I transfer X lifetime to Y".
Once you give out something free, hard to start charging for it again.

Eventually all of your long term subscribers are on lifetime, who pays for the improvements? Is the rate of new user adoption enough?

Essentially you created a roundabout "rent to own" for FSD. And Tesla doesn't want you to "own" FSD.

From a business perspective: Tesla previously valued lifetime FSD at $8k, at a 1% lottery rate the average lottery payer will pay $10k ($100/mo x 100 months) before they win the lottery.

For those who argue about transferring: They can join the lottery (with lower chances) for lifetime FSD associated to person (instead of associated to VIN).

For new user adoption: The average american owns a car for 8 years and has about a 50% chance of staying with that car company when they buy a new car. Experiencing FSD will greatly increase the chances of staying within Tesla for the average consumer.

Tesla not wanting you to own FSD: I think the possibility and reality of owning lifetime FSD will increase new user adoption to a point of being exceedingly favorable to Tesla and stockholders.

 

[Gaximus]

I think Tesla should have always made FSD ties to an account, not a car. If I paid $8000 for FSD, then my next car will be a Tesla, if I can transfer, I’ll never even consider another brand. But if I loose the FSD, I’m now less likely to look at Tesla. If it was account based, I could own 2 or 3 teslas and FSD what ever I get in, even rentals. it’s how Apple locks people into its garden.
I think the lotto might work 1-2 per year wins, but never paying it off after a certain time. That is just financing it, and Tesla already doesn’t want you to Own it.

Sponsored