Charts predicting date of inviation to configure - Hope for the rest of us!

[bigmoose70]

First time posting but long time watching this forum. Thank you to everyone who has provided such great insight and making this wait more tolerable.

I used the data from the Submitted Orders page and plotted RN vs invite date. Several assumptions made but here is the chart as it stands now. I eliminated the first couple of days of invites as there were several higher RN’s in that first round that likely reflect VIPs to get a more realistic trend-line. Also, deleted entries with likely errors (orders prior to 12/8, incorrect dates, incomplete RNs, etc). The trend-line is the mathematical best fit of the current data. Obviously, the current list is not complete and only includes orders entered in the spreadsheet so where the actual trend-line runs is likely not totally accurate, but this is a best estimate with available data. Where the trend-line goes will depend on several factors (increase in production/ramp-up, state allocations, number of RNs actually representing Cybertruck, etc).

Hopefully folks will find this representation of the data helpful.

I will continue to update the chart as more data comes available.

As of 2/14/2024

X and Y axis labeled please haha. Also what is the R^2.

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[docowen]

X and Y axis labeled please haha. Also what is the R^2.

R^2=0.58

If I included orders from 12/8 and 12/9 R^2=0.06 and the line was much less steep. Thus my justification for eliminating that portion of the data.

I‘ll be sure to include axis labels when I update the chart.

 

[CarMan ElecTruck]

Please define mistake

As of yesterday there were at least 2 11287s. Anything above that is probably an employee, friend, influencer, or mistake.

 

[LexusCyber]

I’m at 60 today or tomorrow. None in Washington yet.

I saw a CT on the streets of Bellevue WA ( Seattle Eastside ) about 2 weeks ago, and my wife saw another CT ( or maybe the same one? ) in South Seattle yesterday. so definitely there is at least one person who got their CT here in WA. the truck did not have any particular characteristics to amke it stand out...I just noticed that the driver was in his late 40s and had a trimmed beard... .. and the CT had regular wheels, no covers.

 

[Almost Mars]

I saw a CT on the streets of Bellevue WA ( Seattle Eastside ) about 2 weeks ago, and my wife saw another CT ( or maybe the same one? ) in South Seattle yesterday. so definitely there is at least one person who got their CT here in WA. the truck did not have any particular characteristics to amke it stand out...I just noticed that the driver was in his late 40s and had a trimmed beard... .. and the CT had regular wheels, no covers.

Soon I hope. I sold my truck at the end of December and I really need something.

 

[Spacenoddle]

I saw a CT on the streets of Bellevue WA ( Seattle Eastside ) about 2 weeks ago, and my wife saw another CT ( or maybe the same one? ) in South Seattle yesterday. so definitely there is at least one person who got their CT here in WA. the truck did not have any particular characteristics to amke it stand out...I just noticed that the driver was in his late 40s and had a trimmed beard... .. and the CT had regular wheels, no covers.

Probably employee's. Tesla reps said no WA delivery yet.

 

[LexusCyber]

Probably employee's. Tesla reps said no WA delivery yet.

could be .. next time I am encountering it I plan to follow and ask. could be Tesla employee...

 

[cbbowlingmd]

Curious is OP can update the plot graph now. Would be nice to see how the last month has changed things, if at all.

 

[BlueLightning]

I've seen a 11286...

Great data! Thanks.

Long wait: 1134… for the Tri-Motor here, and about fell over when Tesla released the new and improved CT prices.

I remember all the arguments of “Tesla will honor the original prices, prices will not go up?! Etc!”

Well after seeing the new $20k-$30, or $50k increase for the FS, I just went and bought a Lightning.

Hoping by the time my number is called the CT price for duel motor will have gone down a bit.

 

[cgladue]

Curious is OP can update the plot graph now. Would be nice to see how the last month has changed things, if at all.

www.cybertruck.vin for more detailed info.

 

[docowen]

Curious is OP can update the plot graph now. Would be nice to see how the last month has changed things, if at all.

Here are updated charts. The info entered in the tracker continues to follow close to my original predictions. If you include all orders (except the first few days) the curve has flattened a bit but R^2=0.67. Based on this chart I should get my email sometime in early July (RN11311XXXX).

However, if you just look at the orders since 2/10/24 (and exclude about 5 outliers of the ~240 orders since then)the data tightens up significantly to R^2=0.90 and steepens the curve. This moves my expected email to early June.

The third bar chart shows the number of each RN entered into the entire data set (all order dates) and you can see there are significantly more RNs the lower RN you go. As previously discussed in other threads, the RNs are not specific to Cybertruck, but include the rest of the S3XY lineup. My explanation of the steeper curve in the past month is as follows. Immediately after the reveal there were lots of CT reservations placed. This initial burst of orders likely tapered off in the following days, months, years (probably another spike after the delivery event as well). Assuming a fairly constant order rate of other S3XY models over time the proportion of CT orders in all RNs will fall from this peak after the reveal. As this proportion drops off, even if there is no ramp up in production (hopefully there is), we will tick through the RNs quicker as time goes on. For example, we first saw a bunch of 11282s on 1/9/24 and it took 31 days before we saw a bunch of 11287s on 2/13/24. For that same change (50,000 RNs) from 11288 to 11293 it took only 14 days (2/27 to 3/12). I would expect to see this trend continue. If that is the case then perhaps my email will come before June.

 

[cbbowlingmd]

I’m a 11323…. And I’ve been tracking along with you. Anticipating mid July.

 

[docowen]

We have our first 11295s showing up today in the tracker. As previously predicted we should start ticking up in numbers quicker now and this seems to be holding true. The below chart shows orders from 3/1/24 through current. The slope has increased a good bit. The R^2 value does drop, but this is not unexpected with the smaller sample size and shorter time period. Based on this chart it puts my predicted 11311 number to come up sooner in mid May. If this trend continues and my predictions are correct then we could see this move even earlier. Fingers crossed!

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Please define mistake

A mistake in this case is someone that placed data into the orders table but should have put it into the reservations table. Early on there were several people that did that. If you look at an RN value only it might look like a VIP but if you look at all the fields it may seem like just an RN. The moderators of the table, probably not being certain themselves, or perhaps not seeing the value in their effort to remove these entries, may have left them in the table. Anyway, there are some and that is what I meant.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Where is the promised update, or is the original being updated?

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