Great for TX. And CA but what about the rest of our orders?

[Known-Background]

I’m not sure I’ve seen an estimate or discussion about this. What is the best guess for the spillover in production to other states( not including Florida for some reason). Is it once they hit a certain production rate that a percentage will be cleared to go to states other than TX and CA? Is it once they fulfill all the orders in TX and CA? Are they waiting until the weather is better everywhere else or something!?!? Just seems like there’s no way to gauge how long before we see them delivering to other states? Do you think it’s a service training thing? Cali and Tex have people that can fix them?

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[Ward L]

Someone had a chart of states and number of deliveries. The deliveries roughly matched the state's population. CA, most populous, most deliveries, TX, 2nd most populous, 2nd deliveries, etc...

 

[Known-Background]

Someone had a chart of states and number of deliveries. The deliveries roughly matched the state's population. CA, most populous, most deliveries, TX, 2nd most populous, 2nd deliveries, etc...

The population delivery model makes some sense. However, there’s been hardly any deliveries in NY. I guess I’m lucky I’m in PA. Also, it would follow the trickle trend we’ve seen in Florida. I wonder if there’s a formula to it. I guess they could sell trucks in the top three states and still never produce enough to meet that demand. That’s exactly what I’m saying is so concerning, there’s no reason to ship things anywhere else, and technically could skip the earlier reservation order for 2+ years. Maybe once we see more than 20 FStrucks in Florida they might start creeping out to other states.

 

[jookyone]

Someone had a chart of states and number of deliveries. The deliveries roughly matched the state's population. CA, most populous, most deliveries, TX, 2nd most populous, 2nd deliveries, etc...

I did create a chart for orders not deliveries.

 

[jookyone]

I should change my location to Denver, CA and tell them that CO was a typo. See what happens.

 

[Ward L]

I did create a chart for orders not deliveries.

This is great work, thank you. Your dataset is based on the CT Owners Club (CTOC) forum. If only Tesla would share this information for all the CT orders, not just CT Owners Club orders. I have reason to believe the CTOC is only 5-10% of people that have actually placed orders. I hope not, but so few deliveries to CTOC (36 deliveries) seem to indicate that. If the 5-10% number is true, then Tesla has close to 20,000 FSCT orders already!

 

[Outdoors]

I would expect an announcement that FS orders are finished, and a number of production. From there one can easily calculate penetration of users here. After that point it will become variable as the data set would then include non foundation. I little more difficult to calculate a running number, but a 4 year head start on creating members helps.

 

[Wildfortune]

So you're telling me there's a chance?
From Maine.

 

[Woodrick]

This is great work, thank you. Your dataset is based on the CT Owners Club (CTOC) forum. If only Tesla would share this information for all the CT orders, not just CT Owners Club orders. I have reason to believe the CTOC is only 5-10% of people that have actually placed orders. I hope not, but so few deliveries to CTOC (36 deliveries) seem to indicate that. If the 5-10% number is true, then Tesla has close to 20,000 FSCT orders already!

The number of deliveries indicated on this forum pale to the number of actual deliveries.

 

[Woodrick]

I’m not sure I’ve seen an estimate or discussion about this. What is the best guess for the spillover in production to other states( not including Florida for some reason). Is it once they hit a certain production rate that a percentage will be cleared to go to states other than TX and CA? Is it once they fulfill all the orders in TX and CA? Are they waiting until the weather is better everywhere else or something!?!? Just seems like there’s no way to gauge how long before we see them delivering to other states? Do you think it’s a service training thing? Cali and Tex have people that can fix them?

Sinple answer

No one knows!

 

[Known-Background]

Sinple answer

No one knows!

Well some people have mentioned things in other threads that suggest there was some info at one point on the strategy. I heard once it had to do with service centers and that they can prepare California and Texas easier. Some say they heard it was population. The truth is someone does know, it’s whether that information has trickled indirectly or even directly to us. However, it’s possible no one here knows. Sad.

 

[Woodrick]

Well some people have mentioned things in other threads that suggest there was some info at one point on the strategy. I heard once it had to do with service centers and that they can prepare California and Texas easier. Some say they heard it was population. The truth is someone does know, it’s whether that information has trickled indirectly or even directly to us. However, it’s possible no one here knows. Sad.

Yes, I was one. But the actual numbers are not known. And what Tesla is going to do next isn't known.

 

[Ward L]

I would expect an announcement that FS orders are finished, and a number of production. From there one can easily calculate penetration of users here. After that point it will become variable as the data set would then include non foundation. I little more difficult to calculate a running number, but a 4 year head start on creating members helps.

IMO, Tesla won't stop selling FSCT until GigaTexas can make more CTs than there are FSCT orders. I also believe there are already more than 20,000 FSCT orders.

 

[Ward L]

The population delivery model makes some sense. However, there’s been hardly any deliveries in NY. I guess I’m lucky I’m in PA. Also, it would follow the trickle trend we’ve seen in Florida. I wonder if there’s a formula to it. I guess they could sell trucks in the top three states and still never produce enough to meet that demand. That’s exactly what I’m saying is so concerning, there’s no reason to ship things anywhere else, and technically could skip the earlier reservation order for 2+ years. Maybe once we see more than 20 FStrucks in Florida they might start creeping out to other states.

It has to be dependent on logistics to some extent. Austin to NYC is 1,743 miles, to Jacksonville, FLA only 1,055, to SFO 1,752, LAX 1,394. Those deliveries must depend on rail. Is track time available? You mention the weather, and that has to be a factor as well. Yep, none of us know. But the very few NY deliveries maybe due to distance and weather.

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