Is there anyone who didn't initially order FS and then changed their mind

[beewang]

I did this mental math myself today. Worst would be if there are 3 or even 4 million pre orders before they get through the list. Never ending foundation series.

BINGO!!

So for those who wants to wait... to "save" $20K ... Will be waiting for a L-O-N-G time!

Look... I know I can get a model X or Model S Plaid "Cheap" these days.. but I am not that guy.. I think for those who says that they want to wait and save $20K should ask yourself... Would you want a Model X Plaid/ModelS Plaid today cheap? If so... might as well get one now cuz they are great cars and at an awesome price!

beewang

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[LexusCyber]

I am a numbers guy and I did a quick spreadsheet to see what does it look like /how long will it take to fulfill all FS orders.

All data are from google (which means you can verify by googling)

Assumptions:
-Assuming half of the reservation will cancel
-Assuming that 20% ( that's 2 out of 10 ppl for those of you who are dummies ) invitees will convert to FS
-Assuming Productions ramps up to 2,000 units per week on the average (Its just under 1,000 right now) .

As you can see... there is N F W (based on my assumptions) CT non-foundation series can be available prior to Q1 2026, at the earliest.

Cheers!

beewang

20% FS conversion is too high... I believe it is more like 5%-10% . they floated FS invites to up to 500k people in the 2M line.. probably secured 30-40k FS CTs.. the rest of the people are likely pacing for AWD nonFS... my 2 cents

 

[Kaz109]

20% FS conversion is too high... I believe it is more like 5%-10% . they floated FS invites to up to 500k people in the 2M line.. probably secured 30-40k FS CTs.. the rest of the people are likely pacing for AWD nonFS... my 2 cents

What makes you think 20% is too high?

 

[beewang]

20% FS conversion is too high... I believe it is more like 5%-10% . they floated FS invites to up to 500k people in the 2M line.. probably secured 30-40k FS CTs.. the rest of the people are likely pacing for AWD nonFS... my 2 cents

I pulled an unscientific data by looking at people who posted on FB who got the invite (that's my denomiator) and how many accepted (numerator) and I got appx 38.8% conversion rate. But I basically chopped that in half and called it 20%. So I am pretty comfortable with my numbers.

So how are you deriving your "5~10%" (other than SWAG and wishful biased thinking) ??

cheers,
beewang

 

[LexusCyber]

I pulled an unscientific data by looking at people who posted on FB who got the invite (that's my denomiator) and how many accepted (numerator) and I got appx 38.8% conversion rate. But I basically chopped that in half and called it 20%. So I am pretty comfortable with my numbers.

So how are you deriving your "5~10%" (other than SWAG and wishful biased thinking) ??

cheers,
beewang

It is anybody’s guess, really…

Fb is full of boasters and not necessarily representative for the purchasing profile… middle aged males and younger ( assumption 1)

Assumption 2 is the expected factory production … I’d be surprised if they make 70k by end of year. ( vs Elon target of 125k). It is now May and they are locking VINS 1- months in advance. If Tesla reached 500k in the queue with FS emails , having 70k FS trucks ordered and delivered this year would be a bit over 10% conversion rate…. Assumption 3 is that conversion rate to FS decreases the more CTs are out there and fewer people will pay the $100k to get a truck they can get next year for $80k.

 

[beewang]

It is anybody’s guess, really…

Fb is full of boasters and not necessarily representative for the purchasing profile… middle aged males and younger ( assumption 1)

Yes Which is why I called it "Unscentific" but its my data point. And trying to get out of "guessing game" with some numbers behind it.

Assumption 2 is the expected factory production … I’d be surprised if they make 70k by end of year. ( vs Elon target of 125k). It is now May and they are locking VINS 1- months in advance.

Yes agree! It is presently at just under 1,000 unit per week. I am being VERY generous assuming it will reach 2,000 per week.

If Tesla reached 500k in the queue with FS emails , having 70k FS trucks ordered and delivered this year would be a bit over 10% conversion rate….

Hold on!! Stop! That right there is wrong! We have no way of knowing the email queue. So I am not going there. And you can not call that a 10% conversion rate as you have no basis for the denominator.

…. Assumption 3 is that conversion rate to FS decreases the more CTs are out there and fewer people will pay the $100k to get a truck they can get next year for $80k.

There is no evidence of that as people are still "paying" for the delivery spot for a premium. So you can't go there. Just as I didn't add any new orders of Cybertruck as people who are oblivion to the existing of cybertruck added to the order pool (as well as interest of paying for FS).

I understand it is probably in your best interest for the FS to be "over" so that you can get your CT "cheaper: but you have got to take out your bias and stick with what are known facts.

cheers!

beewang

 

[Cyber Man]

I did this math as well. We just have to use general probability and some range of numbers to do some wild speculation. I think 20% FS conversion rate is reasonable, but I also think the orders might be more than 2 million. It was 2 million mid last year. If the conversion rate is optimistically high, that’s offset by the total orders that could be more than 2 million. They could use FS as a reason to balance out lower ramp up curve. Another unknown variable is the probability of someone down below in the queue inclined to buy FS. Generally people up in the queue are CT supporters. Their FS conversation rate might be higher than recent reservation holders, and not all of them post on FB. Reducing ~40% conversion rate by half is reasonable, though it’s bit on the optimistic side. Net-net all of that can be compensated with orders more than 2 million. I think Q1 2026 is a good guess, unless Tesla decides to not make any FS in 2025. That’s very unlikely. My biggest concern is CT prices going up after FS ends in 2025. All this wait to buy CT at a lower price will become meaningless.

 

[CyberWala]

I, too, am hoping for a massive crypto bull run in the coming months

Funny you say that. I just exited some of my crypto positions to buy the truck. Patting my self on the back for mining crypto back in the day

 

[Bill906]

I just got my invite, but I do not want my CT right now. For 2 reasons:

• I don't want to pay the $20k premium.
  • I do not need/want power share.
• I don't want a CT until there are more around. I don't want to be driving the only unicorn.

I have a few questions:

1. Do I just do nothing? When non-FS becomes available, will I get another invite?
   1. If I do nothing, will I lose my preorder status?
2. If I am able to order it at a later date, will Tesla still honor the $7k FSD price that was locked in at pre-order? Or is that part of the FS upcharge?

 

[beewang]

1. Do I just do nothing? When non-FS becomes available, will I get another invite?
   1. If I do nothing, will I lose my preorder status?
2. If I am able to order it at a later date, will Tesla still honor the $7k FSD price that was locked in at pre-order? Or is that part of the FS upcharge?

Answers:
1) Yeah... you'll know when you know... It will be years from now but one day.. Viola! You will get an email/msg.

2) In theory yes... guess we'll have to cross that bridge when you come to it..

Cheers!

beewang

 

[Ondood]

Funny you say that. I just exited some of my crypto positions to buy the truck. Patting my self on the back for mining crypto back in the day

I did something similar myself. After carefully managing my crypto investments for a while, I decided to exit some of my positions and used the proceeds to buy a Tesla Cybertruck. It's incredible to see the tangible benefits of those early days of crypto mining and investment.

The decision to invest in crypto has definitely paid off, and driving around in my new Cybertruck is a constant reminder of that. It's fascinating how something that started as a hobby or side project can lead to such significant real-world rewards. The journey from mining crypto to buying a cutting-edge electric vehicle has been an exciting one, and it makes me appreciate the potential and growth of cryptocurrencies even more.

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